Issued 2026-09-16 at $116.96 · now $116.96 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CAR has typically landed between $87.97 and $170.29 — a range of −24.8% to +45.6% from the issuance price $116.96.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($116.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CAR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $116.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $116.96 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $112.81 (-3.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $97–$128.62
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $87.97–$170.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −81.2% | −81.2% | +21.8% |
| 2008-09-29 | −80.2% | −80.2% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-30 | −79.6% | −79.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-20 | +614.7% | +0.0% | +614.7% |
| 2026-03-19 | +506.1% | −0.5% | +506.1% |
| 2009-04-08 | +402.7% | +0.0% | +402.7% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−0.0%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.4%
n=19
Mar
63%
+12.3%
n=19
Apr
74%
+13.1%
n=19
May
47%
+6.9%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.3%
n=19
Jul
63%
+6.4%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.7%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.1%
n=19
Oct
56%
+3.9%
n=18
Nov
67%
+5.1%
n=18
Dec
50%
−1.2%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Simhambhatla Ravi | officer | Sale | 2,936 @ $138.27 | $406K | −12.5% of holding | −21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,576 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Simhambhatla Ravi | officer | Sale | 1,490 @ $139.53 | $208K | −7.2% of holding | −21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,086 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Simhambhatla Ravi | officer | Sale | 276 @ $140.27 | $39K | −1.4% of holding | −21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,810 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Linnen Edward P | officer | Sale | 7,083 @ $182.05 | $1.3M | −14.9% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,332 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-30 | Simhambhatla Ravi | officer | Sale | 3,469 @ $184.09 | $639K | −20.0% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,876 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-30 | Linnen Edward P | officer | Sale | 2,400 @ $183.10 | $439K | −6.0% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,932 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 843,201 @ $264.60 | $223.1M | −19.5% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,485,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 474,345 @ $290.38 | $137.7M | −8.3% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,247,100 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 374,839 @ $278.44 | $104.4M | −7.3% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,747,100 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 176,728 @ $264.60 | $46.8M | −3.8% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,415,023 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 137,058 @ $264.60 | $36.3M | −2.9% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,610,042 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 140,300 @ $250.61 | $35.2M | −2.3% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,897,100 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 99,419 @ $290.38 | $28.9M | −1.7% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,770,286 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 86,822 @ $264.60 | $23.0M | −2.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,328,201 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 78,563 @ $278.44 | $21.9M | −1.5% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,160,535 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 48,841 @ $290.38 | $14.2M | −0.8% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,721,445 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 46,767 @ $257.31 | $12.0M | −0.8% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,107,100 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 38,596 @ $278.44 | $10.7M | −0.7% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,121,939 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 29,406 @ $250.61 | $7.4M | −0.5% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,051,846 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 22,806 @ $250.61 | $5.7M | −0.4% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,084,294 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 17,241 @ $290.38 | $5.0M | −0.3% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,879,859 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 15,664 @ $264.60 | $4.1M | −0.3% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,594,378 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 14,446 @ $250.61 | $3.6M | −0.2% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,037,400 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,813 @ $290.38 | $2.6M | −0.1% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,871,046 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 9,802 @ $257.31 | $2.5M | −0.2% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,158,682 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,602 @ $257.31 | $2.0M | −0.1% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,169,498 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,963 @ $278.44 | $1.9M | −0.1% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,240,137 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,815 @ $257.31 | $1.2M | −0.1% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,153,867 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,627 @ $264.60 | $695K | −0.1% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,591,751 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,606 @ $250.61 | $653K | −0.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,081,688 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,341 @ $290.38 | $389K | −0.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,869,705 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,039 @ $278.44 | $289K | −0.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,239,098 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 869 @ $257.31 | $224K | −0.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,168,629 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 436 @ $250.61 | $109K | −0.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,081,252 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 145 @ $257.31 | $37K | −0.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,168,484 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 200 @ $47.80 | $10K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 200 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 129 @ $44.48 | $6K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 129 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100 @ $49.82 | $5K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 100 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 193 @ $22.54 | $4K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 193 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 64 @ $34.34 | $2K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 64 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 64 @ $27.89 | $2K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 64 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 64 @ $27.34 | $2K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 64 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 64 @ $26.39 | $2K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 64 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 32 @ $51.85 | $2K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 64 @ $24.34 | $2K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 64 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 32 @ $46.96 | $2K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 33 @ $42.67 | $1K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 33 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 64 @ $19.97 | $1K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 64 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 28 @ $44.48 | $1K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 28 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 32 @ $36.53 | $1K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 33 @ $31.06 | $1K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 33 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 32 @ $31.47 | $1K | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 33 @ $30.28 | $999 | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 33 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 32 @ $31.18 | $998 | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 42 @ $22.54 | $947 | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 42 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 32 @ $28.75 | $920 | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20 @ $44.48 | $890 | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 20 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 32 @ $27.24 | $872 | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 32 @ $26.39 | $844 | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 32 @ $24.08 | $771 | −50.0% of holding | −32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
81 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Simhambhatla Ravi | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,155 | 23,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | Simhambhatla Ravi | officer | Option exercise | 913 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | Simhambhatla Ravi | officer | Option exercise | 16,878 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | Simhambhatla Ravi | officer | Option exercise | 17,791 | 31,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Cunha Daniel Crestian | officer | Withheld for tax | 304 | 665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Cunha Daniel Crestian | officer | Option exercise | 969 | 1,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Cunha Daniel Crestian | officer | Option exercise | 969 | 969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 676,100 | 7,759,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 65,000 | 7,824,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 6,550 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 211 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 650 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 34,700 | 7,083,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Code E | 347 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 347 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 1,236,300 | 6,673,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 376,600 | 7,050,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 53,800 | 7,104,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 60,000 | 7,048,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 4,300 | 7,108,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Code E | 12,303 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Code E | 1,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Code E | 11,138 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Code E | 600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 43 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 538 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 3,766 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 12,363 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Code E | 3,700 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Code E | 100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Code E | 8,350 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Code E | 6,150 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 508,500 | 4,949,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 371,700 | 5,334,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 102,400 | 5,437,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 13,800 | 4,963,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 1,024 | 43 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 3,717 | 538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Pentwater Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 138 | 3,766 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Goldman | House | purchase | 2023-05-19 | 2023-04-10 | $1–15K |
| Thomas Macarthur | House | sale | 2015-06-07 | 2015-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Thomas Macarthur | House | purchase | 2015-04-11 | 2015-03-18 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.