Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.56 · now $8.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CAPR has typically landed between $5.81 and $12.79 — a range of −32.2% to +49.4% from the issuance price $8.56.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,894 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-02-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CAPR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.56 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.39 (-2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.1–$9.67
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.81–$12.79
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-30 | −84.0% | −84.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-11-06 | −83.1% | −83.1% | +10.4% |
| 2026-07-09 | −82.9% | −82.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-03 | +580.0% | +0.0% | +629.0% |
| 2020-04-02 | +578.2% | −1.0% | +621.8% |
| 2020-04-01 | +575.0% | −7.4% | +575.0% |
4,894 overlapping windows · 2007-02-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Sale | 24,100 @ $30.38 | $732K | −68.2% of holding | −79.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,223 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Krasney Karen | officer | Sale | 24,100 @ $30.38 | $732K | −44.1% of holding | −79.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,547 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Sale | 400 @ $30.00 | $12K | −3.4% of holding | −34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,223 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-24 | Krasney Karen | officer | Sale | 400 @ $30.00 | $12K | −1.3% of holding | −34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,547 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-22 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Sale | 500 @ $30.00 | $15K | −4.3% of holding | −36.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,223 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Krasney Karen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $30.00 | $15K | −1.6% of holding | −36.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,547 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Krasney Karen | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $31.70 | $793K | −45.0% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,547 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $31.70 | $793K | −75.2% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,223 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Sabar Karimah Es | director | Sale | 7,529 @ $32.00 | $241K | −100.0% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Sabar Karimah Es | director | Sale | 53,735 @ $31.03 | $1.7M | −100.0% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-31 | Sabar Karimah Es | director | Sale | 61,265 @ $30.17 | $1.8M | −100.0% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $30.13 | $753K | −75.2% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,223 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Krasney Karen | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $30.12 | $753K | −45.0% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,547 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
97 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 24,100 | 35,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Krasney Karen | officer | Option exercise | 24,100 | 54,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 24,100 | 91,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Krasney Karen | officer | Option exercise | 24,100 | 31,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Krasney Karen | officer | Option exercise | 400 | 30,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 400 | 11,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Krasney Karen | officer | Option exercise | 400 | 55,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 400 | 116,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Krasney Karen | officer | Option exercise | 500 | 31,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 500 | 11,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Krasney Karen | officer | Option exercise | 500 | 55,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 500 | 116,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Maurer Michael T | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 11,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Litvack Frank | director | Option exercise | 3,937 | 133,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Litvack Frank | director | Option exercise | 3,937 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Krasney Karen | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 55,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 33,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Krasney Karen | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 56,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 116,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Sabar Karimah Es | director | Option exercise | 7,529 | 7,529 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Sabar Karimah Es | director | Option exercise | 7,529 | 161 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sabar Karimah Es | director | Option exercise | 53,735 | 53,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sabar Karimah Es | director | Option exercise | 53,735 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Sabar Karimah Es | director | Option exercise | 61,265 | 61,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Krasney Karen | officer | Option exercise | 21,488 | 52,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 33,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Krasney Karen | officer | Option exercise | 2,819 | 55,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Krasney Karen | officer | Option exercise | 693 | 31,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 141,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Krasney Karen | officer | Option exercise | 21,488 | 74,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Krasney Karen | officer | Option exercise | 2,819 | 81,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Sabar Karimah Es | director | Option exercise | 61,265 | 53,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Krasney Karen | officer | Option exercise | 693 | 2,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Litvack Frank | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Bergmann Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 2,500 | 2,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Musket David B | director | Award / grant | 15,500 | 15,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Marban Linda | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.