CAPL · TickerCove

CAPLCrossAmerica Partners LPEnergy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketingas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.23 · now $22.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CAPL has typically landed between $20.16 and $24.73 — a range of −9.3% to +11.3% from the issuance price $22.23.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,469 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-10-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$22.23 · 70% of range

$17.94 low$24.07 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.5%

typical move · IQR 7.9%

−9.3%worst (p90)+11.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CAPL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $22.23 (+0.0%)
typical $22.57 (+1.5%)
middle 50% $21.69–$23.45
90% range $20.16–$24.73

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,469 windows spanning 2012-10-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−61.5%	−61.5%	+3.7%
2020-03-02	−53.4%	−58.4%	+0.0%
2020-02-28	−52.1%	−57.4%	+2.4%
3 best
2020-04-02	+88.5%	+0.0%	+88.5%
2020-04-01	+81.8%	+0.0%	+81.8%
2020-04-21	+64.0%	+0.0%	+74.2%

3,469 overlapping windows · 2012-10-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

79%

+5.4%

n=14

Feb

36%

−2.5%

n=14

Mar

71%

−0.6%

n=14

Apr

50%

+5.3%

n=14

May

43%

−1.4%

n=14

Jun

29%

−1.5%

n=14

Jul

71%

+3.8%

n=14

Aug

50%

+4.0%

n=14

Sep

50%

−0.1%

n=14

Oct

69%

+2.6%

n=13

Nov

43%

+0.9%

n=14

Dec

43%

+0.6%

n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-10-10	Reilly John B. III	director	Purchase	1,871 @ $19.74	$37K	+0.0% of holding	+3.4%	+5.5%	4,969,188	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-10	Topper Joseph V. Jr.	director	Purchase	1,801 @ $19.74	$36K	+0.1% of holding	+3.4%	+5.5%	1,859,450	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-12	Topper Joseph V. Jr.	director	Purchase	2,706 @ $20.01	$54K	+0.1% of holding	−2.0%	+9.6%	1,857,649	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12	Reilly John B. III	director	Purchase	2,706 @ $20.01	$54K	+0.1% of holding	−2.0%	+9.6%	4,967,317	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

166 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-23	Kelso Thomas E	director	Option exercise	0	0	Form 4
2026-07-23	Kim Mickey	director	Option exercise	3,154	33,998	Form 4
2026-07-23	Kim Mickey	director	Option exercise	0	0	Form 4
2026-07-23	Kelso Thomas E	director	Option exercise	3,154	12,298	Form 4
2026-07-23	Valosky Kenneth G	director	Option exercise	3,154	26,958	Form 4
2026-07-23	Valosky Kenneth G	director	Option exercise	0	0	Form 4
2026-07-23	Gannon Justin A.	director	Option exercise	3,154	39,682	Form 4
2026-07-23	Gannon Justin A.	director	Option exercise	0	0	Form 4
2026-07-23	Topper Joseph V. Jr.	director	Option exercise	3,154	96,558	Form 4
2026-07-23	Topper Joseph V. Jr.	director	Option exercise	0	0	Form 4
2026-07-23	Reilly John B. III	director	Option exercise	3,154	36,621	Form 4
2026-07-23	Reilly John B. III	director	Option exercise	0	0	Form 4
2026-07-23	Gannon Justin A.	director	Option exercise	3,154	39,682	Form 4
2026-07-23	Gannon Justin A.	director	Option exercise	0	0	Form 4
2026-07-23	Kelso Thomas E	director	Option exercise	3,154	12,298	Form 4
2026-07-23	Kelso Thomas E	director	Option exercise	0	0	Form 4
2026-07-23	Kim Mickey	director	Option exercise	3,154	33,998	Form 4
2026-07-23	Kim Mickey	director	Option exercise	0	0	Form 4
2026-07-23	Reilly John B. III	director	Option exercise	3,154	36,621	Form 4
2026-07-23	Reilly John B. III	director	Option exercise	0	0	Form 4
2026-07-23	Topper Joseph V. Jr.	director	Option exercise	3,154	96,558	Form 4
2026-07-23	Topper Joseph V. Jr.	director	Option exercise	0	0	Form 4
2026-07-23	Valosky Kenneth G	director	Option exercise	3,154	26,958	Form 4
2026-07-23	Valosky Kenneth G	director	Option exercise	0	0	Form 4
2026-07-21	Kelso Thomas E	director	Award / grant	3,040	12,184	Form 4
2026-07-21	Kim Mickey	director	Award / grant	3,040	33,884	Form 4
2026-07-21	Valosky Kenneth G	director	Award / grant	3,040	26,844	Form 4
2026-07-21	Gannon Justin A.	director	Award / grant	3,040	39,568	Form 4
2026-07-21	Topper Joseph V. Jr.	director	Award / grant	3,040	96,444	Form 4
2026-07-21	Reilly John B. III	director	Award / grant	3,040	36,507	Form 4
2026-05-21	Topper Joseph V. Jr.	director	Other acquisition	6,373	1,511,824	Form 4
2026-05-21	Topper Joseph V. Jr.	director	Other acquisition	6,373	1,518,197	Form 4
2026-02-24	Nifong Charles M Jr.	director	Withheld for tax	2,004	86,157	Form 4
2026-02-24	Nifong Charles M Jr.	director	Withheld for tax	1,839	90,710	Form 4
2026-02-24	Topper Maura	director	Withheld for tax	784	25,023	Form 4
2026-02-24	Lynch Keenan D	director	Withheld for tax	663	22,973	Form 4
2026-02-24	Topper Maura	director	Withheld for tax	663	23,506	Form 4
2026-02-24	Hrinak David	officer	Withheld for tax	624	50,707	Form 4
2026-02-24	Brecker Robert	officer	Withheld for tax	615	20,392	Form 4
2026-02-24	Lynch Keenan D	director	Withheld for tax	587	24,108	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i