Issued 2026-09-25 at $67.43 · now $67.43 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, CALM has typically landed between $59.61 and $77.88 — a range of −11.6% to +15.5% from the issuance price $67.43.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,010 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($67.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CALM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $67.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $67.43 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $69.25 (+2.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $65.92–$72.58
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $59.61–$77.88
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −35.5% | −35.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-08-28 | −34.8% | −34.8% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-05 | −34.4% | −34.4% | +1.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2007-01-11 | +56.0% | +0.0% | +56.0% |
| 2015-04-17 | +51.0% | +0.0% | +51.0% |
| 2007-01-10 | +47.1% | +0.0% | +47.1% |
5,010 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | Lombardo Keira L | officer | Purchase | 1,823 @ $92.40 | $168K | +138.6% of holding | −5.6% | −11.6% | 3,138 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Lombardo Keira L | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $92.22 | $46K | +15.9% of holding | −5.6% | −11.6% | 3,638 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Lombardo Keira L | officer | Purchase | 267 @ $92.37 | $25K | +28.5% of holding | −5.6% | −11.6% | 1,205 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Lombardo Keira L | officer | Purchase | 110 @ $92.39 | $10K | +9.1% of holding | −5.6% | −11.6% | 1,315 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Lombardo Keira L | officer | Purchase | 100 @ $92.18 | $9K | +2.7% of holding | −5.6% | −11.6% | 3,738 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-17 | BAKER ADOLPHUS B | director | Sale | 1,147,350 @ $90.60 | $103.9M | −83.3% of holding | −2.8% | −17.3% | 230,570 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-17 | BAKER ADOLPHUS B | director | Sale | 140,266 @ $90.60 | $12.7M | −9.6% of holding | −2.8% | −17.3% | 1,319,034 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-14 | Young Camille S | director | Sale | 909 @ $109.97 | $100K | −10.6% of holding | −4.6% | −6.4% | 7,639 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-14 | Poole James E | director | Sale | 909 @ $109.97 | $100K | −8.9% of holding | −4.6% | −6.4% | 9,261 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-14 | HUGHES LETITIA CALLENDER | director | Sale | 809 @ $109.97 | $89K | −1.9% of holding | −4.6% | −6.4% | 42,761 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-14 | Sanders Steve W | director | Sale | 750 @ $109.97 | $82K | −2.9% of holding | −4.6% | −6.4% | 25,420 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-20 | Holladay Robert L Jr | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $70.93 | $106K | −8.2% of holding | +0.4% | +21.8% | 16,754 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-07-31 | Walters Michael Todd | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $70.20 | $211K | −36.1% of holding | +0.1% | +46.3% | 5,310 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-26 | Poole James E | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $70.67 | $78K | −9.4% of holding | −1.1% | +48.8% | 10,570 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-26 | Poole James E | director | Sale | 400 @ $70.59 | $28K | −3.8% of holding | −1.1% | +48.8% | 10,170 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-20 | HARDIN CHARLES JEFF | officer | Sale | 750 @ $56.51 | $42K | −15.8% of holding | +0.6% | +13.6% | 3,999 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
58 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Highfield Michael J | director | Award / grant | 1,301 | 1,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | FISACKERLY HALEY | director | Award / grant | 1,301 | 1,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Wooley Dudley D | director | Award / grant | 1,284 | 1,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Miller Sherman | director | Withheld for tax | 1,097 | 26,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | BOWMAN MAX P | director | Withheld for tax | 903 | 16,015 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Holladay Robert L Jr | officer | Withheld for tax | 781 | 18,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | BAKER ADOLPHUS B | director | Withheld for tax | 761 | 1,119,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Hull Scott Daniel | officer | Withheld for tax | 463 | 4,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Walters Michael Todd | officer | Withheld for tax | 455 | 8,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Glover Matthew Samuel | officer | Withheld for tax | 455 | 4,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Lombardo Keira L | officer | Award / grant | 1,310 | 5,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | BAKER ADOLPHUS B | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 1,120,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Hull Scott Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 784 | 4,965 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Miller Sherman | director | Award / grant | 4,097 | 27,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Walters Michael Todd | officer | Award / grant | 2,688 | 8,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Young Camille S | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 9,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Boulden Melanie | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 2,248 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | HUGHES LETITIA CALLENDER | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 45,053 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Poole James E | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 11,553 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | BOWMAN MAX P | director | Award / grant | 2,432 | 16,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Glover Matthew Samuel | officer | Award / grant | 784 | 5,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Holladay Robert L Jr | officer | Award / grant | 2,176 | 19,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Sanders Steve W | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 27,712 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-22 | BAKER ADOLPHUS B | director | Gift | 60,000 | 1,259,034 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-22 | BAKER ADOLPHUS B | director | Gift | 70,000 | 1,119,034 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-22 | BAKER ADOLPHUS B | director | Gift | 70,000 | 1,189,034 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Lombardo Keira L | officer | Award / grant | 938 | 938 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Boulden Melanie | director | Award / grant | 938 | 938 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-14 | DLNL, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,309,245 | 3,490,755 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-14 | DLNL, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 4,578,711 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-14 | DLNL, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,490,755 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-14 | BAKER ADOLPHUS B | director | Other acquisition | 4,578,711 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-14 | BAKER ADOLPHUS B | director | Conversion | 1,309,245 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-14 | BAKER ADOLPHUS B | director | Conversion | 3,490,755 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-14 | DLNL, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,490,755 | 4,578,711 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-14 | BAKER ADOLPHUS B | director | Conversion | 1,309,245 | 1,459,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-14 | BAKER ADOLPHUS B | director | Conversion | 3,490,755 | 4,578,711 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-14 | BAKER ADOLPHUS B | director | Conversion | 1,309,245 | 1,459,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-14 | BAKER ADOLPHUS B | director | Conversion | 3,490,755 | 4,578,711 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-14 | DLNL, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,490,755 | 4,578,711 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.