CAICaris Life Sciences, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $28.21 · now $28.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CAI has typically landed between $21.45 and $37.50 — a range of −24.0% to +32.9% from the issuance price $28.21.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

292 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-06-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($28.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CAI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $28.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$21.45worst · -24.0%$37.5best · +32.9%
  • now $28.21 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $27.86 (-1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.36–$31.36
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.45–$37.5
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 292 windows spanning 2025-06-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-01-22−31.0%−31.0%+3.7%
2026-04-20−29.6%−31.5%+0.0%
2026-01-26−29.0%−31.6%+2.8%
3 best
2026-07-27+79.2%−0.3%+79.2%
2026-07-28+72.0%+0.0%+79.7%
2026-07-29+69.2%+0.0%+79.7%

292 overlapping windows · 2025-06-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
0%
−14.2%
n=1
Feb
0%
−13.0%
n=1
Mar
0%
−11.2%
n=1
Apr
100%
+6.3%
n=1
May
0%
−12.0%
n=1
Jun
100%
+6.6%
n=1
Jul
50%
−3.5%
n=2
Aug
100%
+49.7%
n=2
Sep
50%
−5.3%
n=2
Oct
0%
−0.6%
n=1
Nov
0%
−15.1%
n=1
Dec
100%
+5.7%
n=1

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$39$152026-09-04: 1 insider sale, $3.0M — Spetzler David Baxley2026-09-03: 2 insider sales, $11.9M — Spetzler David Baxley …2026-05-15: 1 insider purchase, $990K — HALBERT JON2026-05-11: 1 insider purchase, $501K — Vacirca Jeff L2025-12-11: 2 insider sales, $1.7M — Power Luke Thomas …2025-11-07: 2 insider purchases, $110K — Denton John Russel, Spetzler David Baxley2025-11: 2 open-market purchases, $110K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $1.7M2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $1.5M2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $14.8M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Spetzler David Baxley — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed same dayofficer Spetzler David Baxley — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Spetzler David Baxley — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HALBERT JON — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 59 days after the tradedirector Vacirca Jeff L — Purchase on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Power Luke Thomas — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Power Luke Thomas — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Denton John Russel — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Spetzler David Baxley — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04Spetzler David BaxleyofficerSale119,212 @ $24.76$3.0M−9.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,182,871Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-03Spetzler David BaxleyofficerSale393,100 @ $24.76$9.7M−25.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,136,983Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-03Spetzler David BaxleyofficerSale84,900 @ $25.32$2.1M−7.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,052,083Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15HALBERT JONdirectorPurchase68,000 @ $14.56$990K+10.7% of holding+22.1%not yet — horizon still open704,598Form 4 · filed 59 days after the trade
2026-05-11Vacirca Jeff LdirectorPurchase31,050 @ $16.15$501K+166.7% of holding+9.5%not yet — horizon still open49,671Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11Power Luke ThomasofficerSale60,850 @ $26.56$1.6M−37.6% of holding−1.5%−41.6%100,971Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11Power Luke ThomasofficerSale1,400 @ $27.16$38K−1.4% of holding−1.5%−41.6%99,571Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-07Denton John RusselofficerPurchase4,184 @ $24.09$101K+83.7% of holding+4.2%−45.2%9,184Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-07Spetzler David BaxleyofficerPurchase400 @ $23.85$10K+0.1% of holding+4.2%−45.2%460,777Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-20Brille Brian JdirectorPurchase30,000 @ $21.00$630K+22.7% of holding+5.3%−11.9%162,428Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-20Denton John RusselofficerPurchase7,500 @ $21.00$158K+6.5% of holding+5.3%−11.9%123,591Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

125 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04Spetzler David BaxleyofficerOption exercise250,0001,302,083Form 4
2026-09-04Spetzler David BaxleyofficerOption exercise250,0000Form 4
2026-09-03Spetzler David BaxleyofficerOption exercise1,000,0001,530,083Form 4
2026-09-03Spetzler David BaxleyofficerOption exercise1,000,000250,000Form 4
2026-08-14Fredrickson David PauldirectorAward / grant13,19231,813Form 4
2026-08-14CASTLEMAN PETER MdirectorAward / grant13,19229,321Form 4
2026-08-14Minor LloyddirectorAward / grant13,19231,813Form 4
2026-08-14Vacirca Jeff LdirectorAward / grant13,19262,863Form 4
2026-08-14Gilliam Joseph EdirectorAward / grant13,19229,321Form 4
2026-08-14PHILLIPS T DANNYdirectorAward / grant13,192133,060Form 4
2026-08-14JOHANSEN LAURA IdirectorAward / grant13,192343,897Form 4
2026-08-14HALBERT JONdirectorAward / grant13,192131,813Form 4
2026-05-29Knowles Jonathan Kenneth CharlesdirectorAward / grant1,600308,979Form 4
2026-05-29POSTE GEORGEdirectorAward / grant1,60017,729Form 4
2026-05-15HALBERT DAVID DdirectorWithheld for tax40,7122,574,533Form 4
2026-05-15Brille Brian JdirectorWithheld for tax13,987230,303Form 4
2026-05-15Spetzler David BaxleyofficerWithheld for tax13,856530,083Form 4
2026-05-15Power Luke ThomasofficerWithheld for tax9,771153,771Form 4
2026-05-15Denton John RusselofficerWithheld for tax6,047181,515Form 4
2026-03-06Spetzler David BaxleyofficerAward / grant83,162543,939Form 4
2026-03-06HALBERT DAVID DdirectorAward / grant320,1122,615,245Form 4
2026-03-06Brille Brian JdirectorAward / grant83,162244,290Form 4
2026-03-06Denton John RusselofficerAward / grant63,971187,562Form 4
2026-03-06Power Luke ThomasofficerAward / grant63,971163,542Form 4
2026-02-26CASTLEMAN PETER MdirectorAward / grant5,50924,138Form 4
2026-02-26PHILLIPS T DANNYdirectorAward / grant3,739119,868Form 4
2026-02-26Fredrickson David PauldirectorAward / grant2,49218,621Form 4
2026-02-26Vacirca Jeff LdirectorAward / grant2,49218,621Form 4
2026-02-26HALBERT JONdirectorAward / grant2,492118,621Form 4
2026-02-26Minor LloyddirectorAward / grant2,49218,621Form 4
2026-01-09CASTLEMAN PETER MdirectorOption exercise2,50018,629Form 4
2026-01-09CASTLEMAN PETER MdirectorOption exercise2,5000Form 4
2025-12-11Power Luke ThomasofficerOption exercise37,500161,821Form 4
2025-12-11Power Luke ThomasofficerOption exercise24,750124,321Form 4
2025-12-11Power Luke ThomasofficerOption exercise37,5000Form 4
2025-12-11Brille Brian JdirectorGift650161,128Form 4
2025-12-11Power Luke ThomasofficerOption exercise24,7500Form 4
2025-12-10Brille Brian JdirectorGift650161,778Form 4
2025-09-11PHILLIPS T DANNYdirectorOption exercise100,000116,129Form 4
2025-09-11PHILLIPS T DANNYdirectorOption exercise100,0000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.