CAHCardinal Health, Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Distributionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $232.54 · now $232.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CAH has typically landed between $213.84 and $265.76 — a range of −8.0% to +14.3% from the issuance price $232.54.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-022026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($232.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CAH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $232.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$213.84worst · -8.0%$265.76best · +14.3%
  • now $232.54 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $237.82 (+2.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $227.06$248.58
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $213.84$265.76
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−31.3%−31.3%+0.0%
2008-09-26−29.1%−29.1%+1.6%
2008-09-30−28.8%−28.8%+2.5%
3 best
2025-10-16+34.0%+0.0%+34.4%
2025-10-13+32.7%−0.7%+33.1%
2025-10-14+32.5%−0.6%+33.2%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-022026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$53.4B
market cap
$6.54
EPS (TTM)
34.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-11
next earnings
Revenue$222.6B
'20'25
Net income$1.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.9B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr0.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-56.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-3.36
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $232.54$166.28$357.46
  • DCF (intrinsic)$344.27
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$179.46
  • Analyst target · range $235.00$275.00$255.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$232.54

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
94%
+4.6%
n=18
Feb
74%
+1.7%
n=19
Mar
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Apr
47%
−0.3%
n=19
May
63%
+0.4%
n=19
Jun
47%
+1.1%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.0%
n=19
Aug
42%
−1.3%
n=19
Sep
32%
−1.3%
n=19
Oct
61%
+2.1%
n=18
Nov
72%
+5.4%
n=18
Dec
50%
−0.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$249$1452026-08-19: 8 insider sales, $11.1M — Hollar Jason M., Scherer Mary C. …2026-08-18: 23 insider sales, $48.5M — Hollar Jason M., Alt Aaron E, Mason Stephen M, Mayer Jessica L …2026-02-27: 2 insider sales, $627K — Greene Michelle D. …2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $525K — Alt Aaron E2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $919K — Hall Patricia Hemingway2025-08-20: 3 insider sales, $8.6M — Hollar Jason M., WEITZMAN DEBORAH …2025-08-19: 16 insider sales, $42.3M — Hollar Jason M., Mason Stephen M, Alt Aaron E, Mayer Jessica L …2025-08: 19 open-market sales, $50.9M2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $2.1M2026-08: 31 open-market sales, $59.6M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Hollar Jason M. — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hollar Jason M. — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hollar Jason M. — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hollar Jason M. — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hollar Jason M. — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hollar Jason M. — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Scherer Mary C. — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Scherer Mary C. — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hollar Jason M. — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Hollar Jason M. — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Hollar Jason M. — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Alt Aaron E — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Alt Aaron E — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mason Stephen M — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Hollar Jason M. — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Alt Aaron E — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mayer Jessica L — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mason Stephen M — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mayer Jessica L — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mason Stephen M — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer WEITZMAN DEBORAH — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Greene Michelle D. — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mayer Jessica L — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mayer Jessica L — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Greene Michelle D. — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Alt Aaron E — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mason Stephen M — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Greene Michelle D. — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Greene Michelle D. — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer WEITZMAN DEBORAH — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer WEITZMAN DEBORAH — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Greene Michelle D. — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Greene Michelle D. — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Alt Aaron E — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed same daydirector Hall Patricia Hemingway — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hollar Jason M. — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed same dayofficer WEITZMAN DEBORAH — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed same daydirector Hollar Jason M. — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed same daydirector Hollar Jason M. — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same dayofficer Mason Stephen M — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Alt Aaron E — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same dayofficer Mayer Jessica L — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same dayofficer Snow Ola M — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Alt Aaron E — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Greene Michelle D. — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same dayofficer Scherer Mary C. — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Hollar Jason M. — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Hollar Jason M. — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same dayofficer Snow Ola M — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same dayofficer Mayer Jessica L — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same dayofficer Mason Stephen M — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same dayofficer Mason Stephen M — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Greene Michelle D. — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same dayofficer Mayer Jessica L — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19Hollar Jason M.directorSale16,187 @ $237.23$3.8M−7.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open196,847Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19Hollar Jason M.directorSale6,731 @ $236.46$1.6M−3.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open213,034Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19Hollar Jason M.directorSale6,244 @ $237.88$1.5M−3.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open190,603Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19Hollar Jason M.directorSale6,206 @ $233.22$1.4M−2.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open228,926Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19Hollar Jason M.directorSale5,704 @ $235.34$1.3M−2.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open219,765Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19Hollar Jason M.directorSale3,457 @ $234.29$810K−1.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open225,469Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19Scherer Mary C.officerSale2,202 @ $237.39$523K−43.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open2,811Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19Scherer Mary C.officerSale100 @ $237.40$24K−2.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open5,013Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Hollar Jason M.directorSale29,915 @ $235.51$7.0M−10.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open263,810Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Hollar Jason M.directorSale21,407 @ $234.56$5.0M−6.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open293,725Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Hollar Jason M.directorSale16,208 @ $236.54$3.8M−6.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open247,602Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Alt Aaron EdirectorSale13,685 @ $236.58$3.2M−29.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open33,467Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Alt Aaron EdirectorSale12,972 @ $237.26$3.1M−38.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open20,495Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Mason Stephen MofficerSale12,829 @ $237.26$3.0M−41.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open18,061Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Hollar Jason M.directorSale12,470 @ $237.25$3.0M−5.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open235,132Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Alt Aaron EdirectorSale12,228 @ $235.54$2.9M−20.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open47,152Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Mayer Jessica LofficerSale10,864 @ $237.31$2.6M−24.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open33,076Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Mason Stephen MofficerSale10,876 @ $236.50$2.6M−26.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open30,890Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Mayer Jessica LofficerSale10,246 @ $235.51$2.4M−17.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open48,366Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Mason Stephen MofficerSale8,195 @ $235.62$1.9M−16.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open41,766Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18WEITZMAN DEBORAHofficerSale6,665 @ $235.30$1.6M−7.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open78,590Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Greene Michelle D.directorSale4,952 @ $235.68$1.2M−25.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open14,528Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Mayer Jessica LofficerSale4,426 @ $236.38$1.0M−9.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open43,940Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Mayer Jessica LofficerSale3,900 @ $234.64$915K−6.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open58,612Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Greene Michelle D.directorSale3,512 @ $236.31$830K−24.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open11,016Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Alt Aaron EdirectorSale3,115 @ $234.55$731K−5.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open59,380Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Mason Stephen MofficerSale3,100 @ $234.59$727K−5.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open49,961Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Greene Michelle D.directorSale2,500 @ $234.57$586K−11.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open19,480Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Greene Michelle D.directorSale686 @ $237.25$163K−6.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open10,330Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18WEITZMAN DEBORAHofficerSale408 @ $236.59$97K−0.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open78,182Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18WEITZMAN DEBORAHofficerSale281 @ $237.44$67K−0.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open77,901Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-27Greene Michelle D.directorSale2,646 @ $228.47$605K−17.8% of holding−2.4%−10.0%12,230Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27Greene Michelle D.directorSale100 @ $228.55$23K−0.7% of holding−2.4%−10.0%14,876Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-18Alt Aaron EdirectorSale2,328 @ $225.50$525K−8.1% of holding−2.4%−7.8%26,408Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-06Hall Patricia HemingwaydirectorSale4,000 @ $229.72$919K−12.4% of holding−2.2%−7.2%28,264Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-20Hollar Jason M.directorSale22,957 @ $150.40$3.5M−10.3% of holding−6.5%+38.9%200,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-20WEITZMAN DEBORAHofficerSale21,367 @ $150.53$3.2M−28.6% of holding−6.5%+38.9%53,428Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-20Hollar Jason M.directorSale12,944 @ $149.40$1.9M−5.5% of holding−6.5%+38.9%222,957Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Hollar Jason M.directorSale94,735 @ $148.92$14.1M−28.1% of holding−2.8%+42.8%242,214Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Mason Stephen MofficerSale34,411 @ $148.83$5.1M−53.2% of holding−2.8%+42.8%30,252Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Alt Aaron EdirectorSale34,455 @ $148.61$5.1M−43.7% of holding−2.8%+42.8%44,438Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Mayer Jessica LofficerSale33,333 @ $148.91$5.0M−40.6% of holding−2.8%+42.8%48,857Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Snow Ola MofficerSale23,700 @ $148.86$3.5M−54.4% of holding−2.8%+42.8%19,882Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Alt Aaron EdirectorSale13,788 @ $149.19$2.1M−31.0% of holding−2.8%+42.8%30,650Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Greene Michelle D.directorSale11,994 @ $148.76$1.8M−42.1% of holding−2.8%+42.8%16,482Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Scherer Mary C.officerSale6,766 @ $149.25$1.0M−65.5% of holding−2.8%+42.8%3,556Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Hollar Jason M.directorSale6,657 @ $148.15$986K−1.9% of holding−2.8%+42.8%336,949Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Hollar Jason M.directorSale6,313 @ $149.45$943K−2.6% of holding−2.8%+42.8%235,901Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Snow Ola MofficerSale4,451 @ $149.39$665K−22.4% of holding−2.8%+42.8%15,431Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Mayer Jessica LofficerSale4,345 @ $148.08$643K−5.0% of holding−2.8%+42.8%82,190Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Mason Stephen MofficerSale4,167 @ $149.39$623K−13.8% of holding−2.8%+42.8%26,085Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Mason Stephen MofficerSale2,997 @ $147.87$443K−4.4% of holding−2.8%+42.8%64,663Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Greene Michelle D.directorSale1,506 @ $149.28$225K−9.1% of holding−2.8%+42.8%14,976Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Mayer Jessica LofficerSale400 @ $149.52$60K−0.8% of holding−2.8%+42.8%48,457Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

75 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-15Hollar Jason M.directorWithheld for tax103,449315,132Form 4
2026-08-15Alt Aaron EdirectorWithheld for tax30,73062,495Form 4
2026-08-15WEITZMAN DEBORAHofficerWithheld for tax29,75985,255Form 4
2026-08-15Mason Stephen MofficerWithheld for tax25,28953,061Form 4
2026-08-15Mayer Jessica LofficerWithheld for tax25,28562,512Form 4
2026-08-15Greene Michelle D.directorWithheld for tax10,03121,980Form 4
2026-08-15Pitteroff Valerie ChristineofficerWithheld for tax1,85211,757Form 4
2026-08-15Scherer Mary C.officerWithheld for tax1,7575,113Form 4
2026-08-15Mayer Jessica LofficerAward / grant6,37887,797Form 4
2026-08-15Hollar Jason M.directorAward / grant30,616418,581Form 4
2026-08-15Mason Stephen MofficerAward / grant5,86878,350Form 4
2026-08-15WEITZMAN DEBORAHofficerAward / grant7,314115,014Form 4
2026-08-15Greene Michelle D.directorAward / grant2,55132,011Form 4
2026-08-15Scherer Mary C.officerAward / grant7656,870Form 4
2026-08-15Pitteroff Valerie ChristineofficerAward / grant2,97713,609Form 4
2026-08-15Alt Aaron EdirectorAward / grant8,07993,225Form 4
2026-08-04Hollar Jason M.directorAward / grant187,965387,965Form 4
2026-08-04Greene Michelle D.directorAward / grant17,23029,460Form 4
2026-08-04WEITZMAN DEBORAHofficerAward / grant54,823107,700Form 4
2026-08-04Mason Stephen MofficerAward / grant46,99272,482Form 4
2026-08-04Mayer Jessica LofficerAward / grant46,99281,419Form 4
2026-08-04Scherer Mary C.officerAward / grant2,6106,105Form 4
2026-08-04Pitteroff Valerie ChristineofficerAward / grant2,61010,632Form 4
2026-08-04Alt Aaron EdirectorAward / grant58,73885,146Form 4
2026-04-15Hall Patricia HemingwaydirectorAward / grant38128,645Form 4
2026-02-15Alt Aaron EdirectorWithheld for tax1,91428,736Form 4
2026-01-15Pitteroff Valerie ChristineofficerAward / grant3,9828,022Form 4
2025-12-01Mason Stephen MofficerWithheld for tax59525,490Form 4
2025-12-01WEITZMAN DEBORAHofficerWithheld for tax55152,877Form 4
2025-12-01Mayer Jessica LofficerWithheld for tax42234,427Form 4
2025-12-01Snow Ola MofficerWithheld for tax32015,111Form 4
2025-12-01Scherer Mary C.officerWithheld for tax613,495Form 4
2025-11-05Azelby RobertdirectorAward / grant1,0674,085Form 4
2025-11-05Ramakrishna SudhakardirectorAward / grant1,0672,116Form 4
2025-11-05KENNY GREGORY BdirectorAward / grant1,70264,194Form 4
2025-11-05Evans David CdirectorAward / grant1,06715,373Form 4
2025-11-05MUNDKUR CHRISTINEdirectorAward / grant1,0677,536Form 4
2025-11-05Killefer NancydirectorAward / grant1,06727,624Form 4
2025-11-05Musslewhite Robert WdirectorAward / grant1,0672,116Form 4
2025-11-05Brennan MichelledirectorAward / grant1,0678,086Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-10-282025-10-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-05$1–15K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-05-192025-05-14$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-08$1–15K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-05-062025-05-05$1–15K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-03-192025-03-17$1–15K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-01-272025-01-21$1–15K
Marjorie Taylor Mrs GreeneHousepurchase2024-09-232024-09-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
John JamesHousesale2024-09-062024-09-04$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.