Issued 2026-09-16 at $232.54 · now $232.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CAH has typically landed between $213.84 and $265.76 — a range of −8.0% to +14.3% from the issuance price $232.54.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($232.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CAH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $232.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $232.54 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $237.82 (+2.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $227.06–$248.58
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $213.84–$265.76
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −31.3% | −31.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −29.1% | −29.1% | +1.6% |
| 2008-09-30 | −28.8% | −28.8% | +2.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-10-16 | +34.0% | +0.0% | +34.4% |
| 2025-10-13 | +32.7% | −0.7% | +33.1% |
| 2025-10-14 | +32.5% | −0.6% | +33.2% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$344.27
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$179.46
- Analyst target · range $235.00–$275.00$255.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$232.54
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Sale | 16,187 @ $237.23 | $3.8M | −7.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 196,847 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Sale | 6,731 @ $236.46 | $1.6M | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 213,034 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Sale | 6,244 @ $237.88 | $1.5M | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 190,603 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Sale | 6,206 @ $233.22 | $1.4M | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 228,926 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Sale | 5,704 @ $235.34 | $1.3M | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 219,765 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Sale | 3,457 @ $234.29 | $810K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 225,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Scherer Mary C. | officer | Sale | 2,202 @ $237.39 | $523K | −43.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,811 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Scherer Mary C. | officer | Sale | 100 @ $237.40 | $24K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,013 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Sale | 29,915 @ $235.51 | $7.0M | −10.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 263,810 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Sale | 21,407 @ $234.56 | $5.0M | −6.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 293,725 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Sale | 16,208 @ $236.54 | $3.8M | −6.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 247,602 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Alt Aaron E | director | Sale | 13,685 @ $236.58 | $3.2M | −29.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 33,467 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Alt Aaron E | director | Sale | 12,972 @ $237.26 | $3.1M | −38.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,495 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Mason Stephen M | officer | Sale | 12,829 @ $237.26 | $3.0M | −41.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,061 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Sale | 12,470 @ $237.25 | $3.0M | −5.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 235,132 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Alt Aaron E | director | Sale | 12,228 @ $235.54 | $2.9M | −20.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,152 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Mayer Jessica L | officer | Sale | 10,864 @ $237.31 | $2.6M | −24.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 33,076 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Mason Stephen M | officer | Sale | 10,876 @ $236.50 | $2.6M | −26.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,890 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Mayer Jessica L | officer | Sale | 10,246 @ $235.51 | $2.4M | −17.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,366 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Mason Stephen M | officer | Sale | 8,195 @ $235.62 | $1.9M | −16.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 41,766 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | WEITZMAN DEBORAH | officer | Sale | 6,665 @ $235.30 | $1.6M | −7.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,590 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Greene Michelle D. | director | Sale | 4,952 @ $235.68 | $1.2M | −25.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,528 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Mayer Jessica L | officer | Sale | 4,426 @ $236.38 | $1.0M | −9.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,940 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Mayer Jessica L | officer | Sale | 3,900 @ $234.64 | $915K | −6.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 58,612 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Greene Michelle D. | director | Sale | 3,512 @ $236.31 | $830K | −24.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,016 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Alt Aaron E | director | Sale | 3,115 @ $234.55 | $731K | −5.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 59,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Mason Stephen M | officer | Sale | 3,100 @ $234.59 | $727K | −5.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 49,961 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Greene Michelle D. | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $234.57 | $586K | −11.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,480 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Greene Michelle D. | director | Sale | 686 @ $237.25 | $163K | −6.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,330 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | WEITZMAN DEBORAH | officer | Sale | 408 @ $236.59 | $97K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,182 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | WEITZMAN DEBORAH | officer | Sale | 281 @ $237.44 | $67K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 77,901 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Greene Michelle D. | director | Sale | 2,646 @ $228.47 | $605K | −17.8% of holding | −2.4% | −10.0% | 12,230 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Greene Michelle D. | director | Sale | 100 @ $228.55 | $23K | −0.7% of holding | −2.4% | −10.0% | 14,876 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Alt Aaron E | director | Sale | 2,328 @ $225.50 | $525K | −8.1% of holding | −2.4% | −7.8% | 26,408 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | Hall Patricia Hemingway | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $229.72 | $919K | −12.4% of holding | −2.2% | −7.2% | 28,264 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Sale | 22,957 @ $150.40 | $3.5M | −10.3% of holding | −6.5% | +38.9% | 200,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | WEITZMAN DEBORAH | officer | Sale | 21,367 @ $150.53 | $3.2M | −28.6% of holding | −6.5% | +38.9% | 53,428 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Sale | 12,944 @ $149.40 | $1.9M | −5.5% of holding | −6.5% | +38.9% | 222,957 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Sale | 94,735 @ $148.92 | $14.1M | −28.1% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 242,214 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Mason Stephen M | officer | Sale | 34,411 @ $148.83 | $5.1M | −53.2% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 30,252 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Alt Aaron E | director | Sale | 34,455 @ $148.61 | $5.1M | −43.7% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 44,438 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Mayer Jessica L | officer | Sale | 33,333 @ $148.91 | $5.0M | −40.6% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 48,857 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Snow Ola M | officer | Sale | 23,700 @ $148.86 | $3.5M | −54.4% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 19,882 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Alt Aaron E | director | Sale | 13,788 @ $149.19 | $2.1M | −31.0% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 30,650 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Greene Michelle D. | director | Sale | 11,994 @ $148.76 | $1.8M | −42.1% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 16,482 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Scherer Mary C. | officer | Sale | 6,766 @ $149.25 | $1.0M | −65.5% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 3,556 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Sale | 6,657 @ $148.15 | $986K | −1.9% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 336,949 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Sale | 6,313 @ $149.45 | $943K | −2.6% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 235,901 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Snow Ola M | officer | Sale | 4,451 @ $149.39 | $665K | −22.4% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 15,431 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Mayer Jessica L | officer | Sale | 4,345 @ $148.08 | $643K | −5.0% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 82,190 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Mason Stephen M | officer | Sale | 4,167 @ $149.39 | $623K | −13.8% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 26,085 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Mason Stephen M | officer | Sale | 2,997 @ $147.87 | $443K | −4.4% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 64,663 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Greene Michelle D. | director | Sale | 1,506 @ $149.28 | $225K | −9.1% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 14,976 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Mayer Jessica L | officer | Sale | 400 @ $149.52 | $60K | −0.8% of holding | −2.8% | +42.8% | 48,457 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
75 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Withheld for tax | 103,449 | 315,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Alt Aaron E | director | Withheld for tax | 30,730 | 62,495 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | WEITZMAN DEBORAH | officer | Withheld for tax | 29,759 | 85,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Mason Stephen M | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,289 | 53,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Mayer Jessica L | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,285 | 62,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Greene Michelle D. | director | Withheld for tax | 10,031 | 21,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Pitteroff Valerie Christine | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,852 | 11,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Scherer Mary C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,757 | 5,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Mayer Jessica L | officer | Award / grant | 6,378 | 87,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Award / grant | 30,616 | 418,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Mason Stephen M | officer | Award / grant | 5,868 | 78,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | WEITZMAN DEBORAH | officer | Award / grant | 7,314 | 115,014 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Greene Michelle D. | director | Award / grant | 2,551 | 32,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Scherer Mary C. | officer | Award / grant | 765 | 6,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Pitteroff Valerie Christine | officer | Award / grant | 2,977 | 13,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Alt Aaron E | director | Award / grant | 8,079 | 93,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Hollar Jason M. | director | Award / grant | 187,965 | 387,965 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Greene Michelle D. | director | Award / grant | 17,230 | 29,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | WEITZMAN DEBORAH | officer | Award / grant | 54,823 | 107,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mason Stephen M | officer | Award / grant | 46,992 | 72,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mayer Jessica L | officer | Award / grant | 46,992 | 81,419 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Scherer Mary C. | officer | Award / grant | 2,610 | 6,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Pitteroff Valerie Christine | officer | Award / grant | 2,610 | 10,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Alt Aaron E | director | Award / grant | 58,738 | 85,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Hall Patricia Hemingway | director | Award / grant | 381 | 28,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Alt Aaron E | director | Withheld for tax | 1,914 | 28,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Pitteroff Valerie Christine | officer | Award / grant | 3,982 | 8,022 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Mason Stephen M | officer | Withheld for tax | 595 | 25,490 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | WEITZMAN DEBORAH | officer | Withheld for tax | 551 | 52,877 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Mayer Jessica L | officer | Withheld for tax | 422 | 34,427 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Snow Ola M | officer | Withheld for tax | 320 | 15,111 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Scherer Mary C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 61 | 3,495 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Azelby Robert | director | Award / grant | 1,067 | 4,085 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Ramakrishna Sudhakar | director | Award / grant | 1,067 | 2,116 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | KENNY GREGORY B | director | Award / grant | 1,702 | 64,194 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Evans David C | director | Award / grant | 1,067 | 15,373 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | MUNDKUR CHRISTINE | director | Award / grant | 1,067 | 7,536 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Killefer Nancy | director | Award / grant | 1,067 | 27,624 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Musslewhite Robert W | director | Award / grant | 1,067 | 2,116 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Brennan Michelle | director | Award / grant | 1,067 | 8,086 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | purchase | 2025-10-28 | 2025-10-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-05 | $1–15K |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | purchase | 2025-05-19 | 2025-05-14 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | purchase | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | purchase | 2025-05-06 | 2025-05-05 | $1–15K |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | purchase | 2025-03-19 | 2025-03-17 | $1–15K |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | purchase | 2025-01-27 | 2025-01-21 | $1–15K |
| Marjorie Taylor Mrs Greene | House | purchase | 2024-09-23 | 2024-09-20 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| John James | House | sale | 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-04 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.