CAGConagra Brands, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.18 · now $15.18 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CAG has typically landed between $13.63 and $16.61 — a range of −10.2% to +9.4% from the issuance price $15.18.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CAG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$13.63worst · -10.2%$16.61best · +9.4%
  • now $15.18 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.04 (-1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.34–$15.73
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.63–$16.61
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2018-11-21−36.3%−36.3%+0.9%
2018-11-23−35.4%−36.9%+0.0%
2018-11-26−34.9%−35.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-13+34.5%+0.0%+34.5%
2019-03-20+33.3%+0.0%+33.3%
2020-03-23+33.2%+0.0%+33.2%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+0.7%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.1%
n=19
Mar
79%
+4.3%
n=19
Apr
47%
+1.4%
n=19
May
42%
−1.2%
n=19
Jun
47%
−1.6%
n=19
Jul
63%
+1.9%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.4%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.1%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.1%
n=18
Nov
61%
+0.9%
n=18
Dec
72%
+1.9%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$20$132026-07-17: 1 insider purchase, $511K — Brase John P2026-04-14: 2 insider purchases, $609K — LENNY RICHARD H, Mulligan John J2025-11-04: 1 insider sale, $224K — Napier Melissa C.2025-10-07: 1 insider purchase, $187K — BROWN THOMAS K2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $187K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $224K2026-04: 2 open-market purchases, $609K2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $511K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Brase John P — Purchase on 2026-07-17, filed 4 days after the tradedirector LENNY RICHARD H — Purchase on 2026-04-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mulligan John J — Purchase on 2026-04-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Napier Melissa C. — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BROWN THOMAS K — Purchase on 2025-10-07, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-17Brase John PdirectorPurchase35,000 @ $14.59$511Kownership Δ n/a+10.4%not yet — horizon still open35,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-14LENNY RICHARD HdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $14.34$359K+12.2% of holding−5.7%not yet — horizon still open229,340Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-14Mulligan John JdirectorPurchase17,500 @ $14.31$250K+542.1% of holding−5.7%not yet — horizon still open20,728Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-04Napier Melissa C.officerSale13,011 @ $17.19$224K−100.0% of holding−2.3%−21.2%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-07BROWN THOMAS KdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $18.72$187K+19.9% of holding−9.1%−16.6%60,167Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

238 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01MARSHALL RUTH ANNdirectorAward / grant1,629228,914Form 4
2026-07-24O'Mara NoelleofficerWithheld for tax20,43858,102Form 4
2026-07-24MARBERGER DAVID SdirectorWithheld for tax5,059359,322Form 4
2026-07-24Eboli AlexandreofficerWithheld for tax4,85780,176Form 4
2026-07-24McGough Thomas MofficerWithheld for tax3,346271,967Form 4
2026-07-24Brock CharisseofficerWithheld for tax2,429189,060Form 4
2026-07-24Bartell CareyofficerWithheld for tax2,42960,221Form 4
2026-07-24Napier Melissa C.officerWithheld for tax1,1965,469Form 4
2026-07-24O'Mara NoelleofficerOption exercise34,2570Form 4
2026-07-24O'Mara NoelleofficerOption exercise4,5684,568Form 4
2026-07-24O'Mara NoelleofficerOption exercise7,3087,309Form 4
2026-07-24Eboli AlexandreofficerOption exercise10,96285,033Form 4
2026-07-24MARBERGER DAVID SdirectorOption exercise11,419364,381Form 4
2026-07-24McGough Thomas MofficerOption exercise11,41911,419Form 4
2026-07-24Brock CharisseofficerOption exercise5,4815,481Form 4
2026-07-24O'Mara NoelleofficerOption exercise34,25766,664Form 4
2026-07-24Brock CharisseofficerOption exercise5,481191,489Form 4
2026-07-24O'Mara NoelleofficerOption exercise4,56871,232Form 4
2026-07-24Bartell CareyofficerOption exercise5,48162,650Form 4
2026-07-24O'Mara NoelleofficerOption exercise7,30878,540Form 4
2026-07-24Eboli AlexandreofficerOption exercise10,96210,963Form 4
2026-07-24Napier Melissa C.officerOption exercise2,6986,665Form 4
2026-07-24Napier Melissa C.officerOption exercise2,6982,698Form 4
2026-07-24McGough Thomas MofficerOption exercise11,419275,313Form 4
2026-07-24Bartell CareyofficerOption exercise5,4815,481Form 4
2026-07-24MARBERGER DAVID SdirectorOption exercise11,41911,419Form 4
2026-07-22MARBERGER DAVID SdirectorWithheld for tax17,306352,962Form 4
2026-07-22Brock CharisseofficerWithheld for tax6,404186,008Form 4
2026-07-22McGough Thomas MofficerWithheld for tax5,723263,894Form 4
2026-07-22Eboli AlexandreofficerWithheld for tax5,53874,071Form 4
2026-07-22Bartell CareyofficerWithheld for tax3,11657,169Form 4
2026-07-22Napier Melissa C.officerWithheld for tax4553,967Form 4
2026-07-22Brase John PdirectorAward / grant205,953205,953Form 4
2026-07-22Bartell CareyofficerAward / grant7,03260,285Form 4
2026-07-22Bartell CareyofficerAward / grant56,42556,425Form 4
2026-07-22Brock CharisseofficerAward / grant9,375187,334Form 4
2026-07-22Brock CharisseofficerAward / grant5,078192,412Form 4
2026-07-22MARBERGER DAVID SdirectorAward / grant19,532350,736Form 4
2026-07-22MARBERGER DAVID SdirectorAward / grant19,532370,268Form 4
2026-07-22MARBERGER DAVID SdirectorAward / grant84,63884,638Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-07-022026-06-16$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-06-082026-05-15$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-05-082026-04-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-04-072026-03-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-01-122025-12-19$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Gary PetersSenatepurchase2025-12-042025-11-14$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.