Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.02 · now $11.02 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CADL has typically landed between $7.60 and $16.26 — a range of −31.0% to +47.5% from the issuance price $11.02.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,268 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CADL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.02 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.73 (-2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.09–$12.37
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.6–$16.26
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-09-21 | −53.9% | −53.9% | +5.6% |
| 2022-10-06 | −51.1% | −53.3% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-21 | −50.8% | −51.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-04-03 | +436.9% | +0.0% | +436.9% |
| 2024-04-02 | +398.8% | −0.6% | +398.8% |
| 2024-04-01 | +356.0% | −4.0% | +356.0% |
1,268 overlapping windows · 2021-07-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2031-10-22 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Aglatimagene Besadenovec + Prodrug and Pembrolizumab vs Docetaxel for Stage IV Non-Squamous NSCLC Progressing on Pembrolizumab (AURORA) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Tak Paul Peter | director | Sale | 59,379 @ $10.46 | $621K | −34.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,321 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-10 | Tak Paul Peter | director | Sale | 220,866 @ $11.50 | $2.5M | −56.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 172,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Tyagarajan Seshu | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $12.00 | $84K | −8.3% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,865 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Barone Francesca | officer | Sale | 23,447 @ $10.06 | $236K | −23.3% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Tyagarajan Seshu | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $10.02 | $70K | −7.7% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,865 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 550,458 @ $5.45 | $3.0M | +24.9% of holding | +0.8% | +146.3% | 2,763,527 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Nichols William Garrett | officer | Sale | 937 @ $6.98 | $7K | −1.8% of holding | −14.4% | −20.9% | 52,493 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Nichols William Garrett | officer | Sale | 781 @ $5.04 | $4K | −1.5% of holding | +27.2% | +2.7% | 52,493 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Tak Paul Peter | director | Sale | 400 @ $9.00 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | −41.8% | −62.0% | 225,740 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Nichols William Garrett | officer | Sale | 45,316 @ $8.76 | $397K | −46.3% of holding | −42.6% | −63.3% | 52,493 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Barone Francesca | officer | Sale | 32,146 @ $8.76 | $282K | −25.0% of holding | −42.6% | −63.3% | 96,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Tak Paul Peter | director | Sale | 25,772 @ $8.77 | $226K | −10.2% of holding | −42.6% | −63.3% | 226,140 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Tyagarajan Seshu | officer | Sale | 31,278 @ $8.82 | $276K | −26.8% of holding | −39.0% | −62.1% | 85,512 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Schoch Charles | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $8.83 | $44K | −11.6% of holding | −39.0% | −62.1% | 38,038 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Tak Paul Peter | director | Sale | 21,704 @ $7.22 | $157K | −7.9% of holding | +10.3% | −22.3% | 251,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Tyagarajan Seshu | officer | Sale | 14,322 @ $7.22 | $103K | −12.9% of holding | +10.3% | −22.3% | 96,790 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Barone Francesca | officer | Sale | 13,534 @ $7.22 | $98K | −10.9% of holding | +10.3% | −22.3% | 110,673 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Nichols William Garrett | officer | Sale | 10,428 @ $7.22 | $75K | −11.6% of holding | +10.3% | −22.3% | 79,320 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Schoch Charles | officer | Sale | 9,511 @ $7.22 | $69K | −18.1% of holding | +10.3% | −22.3% | 43,038 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-08 | Tak Paul Peter | director | Sale | 21,172 @ $8.22 | $174K | −7.2% of holding | −3.3% | −33.0% | 273,616 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-08 | Tyagarajan Seshu | officer | Sale | 14,545 @ $8.22 | $120K | −11.6% of holding | −3.3% | −33.0% | 111,112 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-08 | Barone Francesca | officer | Sale | 13,673 @ $8.22 | $112K | −9.9% of holding | −3.3% | −33.0% | 124,207 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-08 | Nichols William Garrett | officer | Sale | 10,799 @ $8.22 | $89K | −10.7% of holding | −3.3% | −33.0% | 89,748 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-08 | Schoch Charles | officer | Sale | 9,971 @ $8.22 | $82K | −15.9% of holding | −3.3% | −33.0% | 52,549 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 750,000 @ $6.00 | $4.5M | +135.4% of holding | +9.5% | −21.7% | 1,303,752 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Manning Paul B | director | Purchase | 500,000 @ $6.00 | $3.0M | +77.8% of holding | +9.5% | −21.7% | 1,142,406 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
79 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Tak Paul Peter | director | Option exercise | 125,000 | 393,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Tak Paul Peter | director | Option exercise | 125,000 | 1,638,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Zimmermann Martine | director | Award / grant | 64,000 | 64,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Sims Mark E. | officer | Award / grant | 285,000 | 285,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Manning Paul B | director | Award / grant | 2,199 | 2,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | PAPA JOSEPH C | director | Award / grant | 1,331 | 1,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Loggia Nicoletta | director | Award / grant | 381 | 381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Nabel Gary J. | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Martell Christopher | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Loggia Nicoletta | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Radhakrishnan Maha | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Benz Edward J. JR | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | PAPA JOSEPH C | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Manning Paul B | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Gaeta Renee | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Nguyen Diem | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Manning Paul B | director | Award / grant | 4,618 | 4,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | PAPA JOSEPH C | director | Award / grant | 2,795 | 2,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Loggia Nicoletta | director | Award / grant | 779 | 779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Tyagarajan Seshu | officer | Award / grant | 154,000 | 154,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Nichols William Garrett | officer | Award / grant | 136,500 | 136,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Schoch Charles | officer | Award / grant | 232,000 | 232,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Tak Paul Peter | director | Award / grant | 629,000 | 629,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Barone Francesca | officer | Award / grant | 232,000 | 232,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-28 | Nichols William Garrett | officer | Option exercise | 937 | 53,430 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-28 | Nichols William Garrett | officer | Option exercise | 937 | 29,377 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Nichols William Garrett | officer | Option exercise | 781 | 53,274 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Nichols William Garrett | officer | Option exercise | 781 | 30,314 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | Manning Paul B | director | Award / grant | 1,070,663 | 2,213,069 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | Martell Christopher | director | Award / grant | 111,349 | 111,349 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | PAPA JOSEPH C | director | Award / grant | 64,239 | 64,239 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | Tak Paul Peter | director | Award / grant | 42,826 | 268,566 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | Tyagarajan Seshu | officer | Award / grant | 5,353 | 90,865 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | Schoch Charles | officer | Award / grant | 5,353 | 43,391 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | Nabel Gary J. | director | Award / grant | 5,353 | 5,353 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | Barone Francesca | officer | Award / grant | 4,282 | 100,809 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | Loggia Nicoletta | director | Award / grant | 2,141 | 2,141 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | Schoch Charles | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-17 | PAPA JOSEPH C | director | Award / grant | 14,240 | 14,240 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-17 | Manning Paul B | director | Award / grant | 14,240 | 14,240 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.