Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.94 · now $18.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CABO has typically landed between $13.97 and $22.54 — a range of −26.2% to +19.0% from the issuance price $18.94.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,812 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-06-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CABO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $18.94 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.02 (-4.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.53–$19.51
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.97–$22.54
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-04-21 | −59.7% | −59.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | −59.1% | −59.1% | +0.8% |
| 2026-04-22 | −58.6% | −59.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +52.7% | +0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2020-03-16 | +43.4% | −2.0% | +45.8% |
| 2020-03-19 | +43.1% | +0.0% | +43.1% |
2,812 overlapping windows · 2015-06-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Koetje Todd M | officer | Purchase | 998 @ $100.16 | $100K | +14.9% of holding | −14.5% | −90.7% | 7,696 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-16 | Weymouth Katharine | director | Purchase | 150 @ $130.88 | $20K | +7.0% of holding | −9.1% | −12.4% | 2,294 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-13 | WEITZ WALLACE R | director | Purchase | 5,188 @ $132.08 | $685K | +51.2% of holding | −14.2% | −14.4% | 15,328 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-13 | WEITZ WALLACE R | director | Purchase | 1,812 @ $133.82 | $242K | +11.8% of holding | −14.2% | −14.4% | 17,140 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-12 | Detz Margaret Masoner | officer | Purchase | 300 @ $132.28 | $40K | +7.9% of holding | −11.5% | −10.7% | 4,081 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-11 | Meduski Mary E | director | Purchase | 250 @ $148.00 | $37K | +7.5% of holding | −11.6% | −17.6% | 3,599 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-05 | WEITZ WALLACE R | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $246.00 | $738K | +53.7% of holding | +12.9% | −48.8% | 8,584 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | WEITZ WALLACE R | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $244.02 | $244K | +21.8% of holding | +10.4% | −50.6% | 5,584 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
58 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | McCallion Heather A | officer | Award / grant | 41,893 | 41,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Arntzen Christopher J | officer | Withheld for tax | 40 | 1,843 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Arntzen Christopher J | officer | Award / grant | 15,003 | 22,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Arntzen Christopher J | officer | Award / grant | 10,002 | 14,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Meduski Mary E | director | Award / grant | 5,035 | 8,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | WEITZ WALLACE R | director | Award / grant | 4,986 | 22,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Smith Sherrese M | director | Award / grant | 4,791 | 7,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Brian Brad D. | director | Award / grant | 3,911 | 8,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Bartolo P Robert | director | Award / grant | 3,031 | 4,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kissire Deborah J. | director | Award / grant | 3,031 | 6,349 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Weymouth Katharine | director | Award / grant | 3,031 | 5,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Holanda James A | director | Award / grant | 44,004 | 44,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Koetje Todd M | officer | Award / grant | 2,198 | 6,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Detz Margaret Masoner | officer | Award / grant | 1,422 | 5,503 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | JOHNSON KENNETH E | officer | Award / grant | 1,357 | 7,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Koetje Todd M | officer | Withheld for tax | 156 | 6,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | JOHNSON KENNETH E | officer | Withheld for tax | 70 | 7,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Koetje Todd M | officer | Withheld for tax | 420 | 4,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | JOHNSON KENNETH E | officer | Withheld for tax | 417 | 6,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Mokry Anthony John | officer | Withheld for tax | 250 | 1,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Arntzen Christopher J | officer | Withheld for tax | 161 | 1,883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Koetje Todd M | officer | Award / grant | 7,680 | 7,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Koetje Todd M | officer | Award / grant | 11,520 | 11,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Mokry Anthony John | officer | Award / grant | 4,992 | 4,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Mokry Anthony John | officer | Award / grant | 7,488 | 7,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Arntzen Christopher J | officer | Award / grant | 4,992 | 4,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Arntzen Christopher J | officer | Award / grant | 7,488 | 7,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Detz Margaret Masoner | officer | Award / grant | 4,992 | 4,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Detz Margaret Masoner | officer | Award / grant | 7,488 | 7,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | JOHNSON KENNETH E | officer | Award / grant | 9,216 | 9,216 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | JOHNSON KENNETH E | officer | Award / grant | 13,824 | 13,824 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Arntzen Christopher J | officer | Withheld for tax | 19 | 2,044 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-01 | Arntzen Christopher J | officer | Withheld for tax | 93 | 2,063 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Meduski Mary E | director | Award / grant | 1,669 | 3,349 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | WEITZ WALLACE R | director | Award / grant | 1,548 | 10,140 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Smith Sherrese M | director | Award / grant | 1,487 | 2,874 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Brian Brad D. | director | Award / grant | 1,487 | 4,290 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Weymouth Katharine | director | Award / grant | 941 | 2,144 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Bartolo P Robert | director | Award / grant | 941 | 1,516 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Kissire Deborah J. | director | Award / grant | 941 | 3,318 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.