CABA · TickerCove

CABACabaletta Bio, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.49 · now $2.49 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CABA has typically landed between $1.57 and $3.85 — a range of −37.1% to +54.7% from the issuance price $2.49.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,709 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-10-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.49) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$2.49 · 26% of range

$1.92 low$4.15 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−2.4%

typical move · IQR 32.7%

−37.1%worst (p90)+54.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CABA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.49 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $2.49 (+0.0%)
typical $2.43 (-2.4%)
middle 50% $2.02–$2.84
90% range $1.57–$3.85

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,709 windows spanning 2019-10-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2021-12-13	−73.1%	−73.1%	+0.0%
2021-12-08	−72.3%	−72.7%	+0.0%
2021-12-10	−71.7%	−71.7%	+2.1%
3 best
2022-10-17	+284.7%	+0.0%	+284.7%
2022-10-18	+281.4%	+0.0%	+281.4%
2022-10-14	+265.9%	+0.0%	+265.9%

1,709 overlapping windows · 2019-10-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

71%

+6.6%

n=7

Feb

29%

−9.3%

n=7

Mar

14%

−18.4%

n=7

Apr

43%

−5.5%

n=7

May

57%

+10.5%

n=7

Jun

29%

−6.6%

n=7

Jul

43%

−1.8%

n=7

Aug

43%

+0.6%

n=7

Sep

57%

+3.3%

n=7

Oct

67%

+33.7%

n=6

Nov

71%

+28.6%

n=7

Dec

43%

+1.6%

n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-01-21	Nichtberger Steven	director	Purchase	45,000 @ $2.24	$101K	+4.6% of holding	+23.8%	+8.0%	1,031,483	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-21	Tomasello Shawn	director	Purchase	22,725 @ $2.21	$50K	ownership Δ n/a	+23.8%	+8.0%	22,725	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-21	Gavel Steve	officer	Purchase	22,170 @ $2.27	$50K	ownership Δ n/a	+23.8%	+8.0%	22,170	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-21	Simon Mark	director	Purchase	11,061 @ $2.28	$25K	+8.1% of holding	+23.8%	+8.0%	147,205	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-21	Binder Gwendolyn	director	Purchase	11,312 @ $2.19	$25K	+56.6% of holding	+23.8%	+8.0%	31,312	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-21	Chang David J.	officer	Purchase	8,800 @ $2.26	$20K	ownership Δ n/a	+23.8%	+8.0%	8,800	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-21	Gerard Michael	officer	Purchase	6,600 @ $2.27	$15K	ownership Δ n/a	+23.8%	+8.0%	6,600	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-21	Bollard Catherine	director	Purchase	4,405 @ $2.27	$10K	+440.5% of holding	+23.8%	+8.0%	5,405	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

109 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-09	Brun Scott C.	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2026-06-09	Tomasello Shawn	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2026-06-09	Bollard Catherine	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2026-06-09	Simon Mark	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2026-06-09	HENRIQUES RICHARD C JR	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2026-03-02	Gerard Michael	officer	Award / grant	175,000	175,000	Form 4
2026-03-02	Nichtberger Steven	director	Award / grant	674,000	674,000	Form 4
2026-03-02	Das Arun	officer	Award / grant	175,000	175,000	Form 4
2026-03-02	Marda Anup	officer	Award / grant	225,000	225,000	Form 4
2026-03-02	Binder Gwendolyn	director	Award / grant	225,000	225,000	Form 4
2026-03-02	Chang David J.	officer	Award / grant	225,000	225,000	Form 4
2025-10-13	Gavel Steve	officer	Award / grant	275,000	275,000	Form 4
2025-06-09	Brun Scott C.	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2025-06-09	Bollard Catherine	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2025-06-09	Simon Mark	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2025-06-09	Tomasello Shawn	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2025-06-09	HENRIQUES RICHARD C JR	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2025-05-19	HENRIQUES RICHARD C JR	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2025-05-19	HENRIQUES RICHARD C JR	director	Disposition	46,428	0	Form 4
2025-05-19	HENRIQUES RICHARD C JR	director	Award / grant	46,428	46,428	Form 4
2025-05-19	HENRIQUES RICHARD C JR	director	Disposition	22,000	0	Form 4
2025-05-19	Chang David J.	officer	Disposition	150,000	0	Form 4
2025-05-19	Chang David J.	officer	Award / grant	150,000	150,000	Form 4
2025-05-19	Chang David J.	officer	Disposition	130,000	0	Form 4
2025-05-19	Chang David J.	officer	Award / grant	130,000	130,000	Form 4
2025-05-19	Chang David J.	officer	Disposition	185,709	0	Form 4
2025-05-19	Chang David J.	officer	Award / grant	185,709	185,709	Form 4
2025-05-19	Chang David J.	officer	Disposition	48,836	0	Form 4
2025-05-19	Chang David J.	officer	Award / grant	48,836	48,836	Form 4
2025-05-19	Chang David J.	officer	Disposition	38,238	0	Form 4
2025-05-19	Chang David J.	officer	Award / grant	38,238	38,238	Form 4
2025-05-19	Chang David J.	officer	Disposition	113,500	0	Form 4
2025-05-19	Chang David J.	officer	Award / grant	113,500	113,500	Form 4
2025-05-19	Chang David J.	officer	Disposition	135,000	0	Form 4
2025-05-19	Chang David J.	officer	Award / grant	135,000	135,000	Form 4
2025-05-19	Das Arun	officer	Award / grant	100,000	100,000	Form 4
2025-05-19	Simon Mark	director	Disposition	18,460	0	Form 4
2025-05-19	Simon Mark	director	Award / grant	18,460	18,460	Form 4
2025-05-19	Simon Mark	director	Disposition	22,000	0	Form 4
2025-05-19	Simon Mark	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i