Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.76 · now $2.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BZUN has typically landed between $2.05 and $3.86 — a range of −25.8% to +39.8% from the issuance price $2.76.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,827 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-05-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BZUN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.76 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.62 (-5.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.31–$2.92
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.05–$3.86
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,827 windows spanning 2015-05-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-02-10 | −55.3% | −55.3% | +5.3% |
| 2022-02-11 | −52.1% | −54.4% | +7.5% |
| 2022-02-09 | −50.6% | −50.6% | +1.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2015-10-01 | +86.2% | +0.0% | +86.2% |
| 2016-08-04 | +85.4% | −0.8% | +85.4% |
| 2024-09-05 | +85.1% | +0.0% | +85.1% |
2,827 overlapping windows · 2015-05-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
64%
+7.7%
n=11
Feb
45%
−2.5%
n=11
Mar
27%
−2.6%
n=11
Apr
55%
+1.1%
n=11
May
55%
+4.8%
n=11
Jun
67%
+5.7%
n=12
Jul
67%
+3.1%
n=12
Aug
17%
+0.5%
n=12
Sep
33%
−0.8%
n=12
Oct
27%
−1.2%
n=11
Nov
27%
−6.4%
n=11
Dec
45%
−2.4%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 7,300 @ $2.72 | $20K | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,638,472 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 7,300 @ $2.74 | $20K | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,631,172 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Wu Junhua | director | Purchase | 13,500 @ $2.85 | $38K | +5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 267,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Wu Junhua | director | Purchase | 29,000 @ $2.85 | $83K | +12.9% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 253,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.81 | $28K | +0.6% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,623,872 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.77 | $28K | +0.6% of holding | −10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,613,872 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Wu Junhua | director | Purchase | 18,500 @ $2.84 | $53K | +9.0% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 224,770 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.83 | $28K | +0.6% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,603,872 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.72 | $27K | +0.6% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,593,872 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.79 | $28K | +0.6% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,583,872 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.72 | $27K | +0.6% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,573,872 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Wu Junhua | director | Purchase | 18,000 @ $2.69 | $48K | +9.6% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 206,270 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.67 | $27K | +0.6% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,563,872 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.64 | $26K | +0.6% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,553,872 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.72 | $27K | +0.7% of holding | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,543,872 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.77 | $28K | +0.7% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,533,872 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.65 | $27K | +0.7% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,523,872 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.67 | $27K | +0.7% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,513,872 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.63 | $26K | +0.7% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,503,872 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.69 | $27K | +0.7% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,493,872 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Wu Junhua | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $2.70 | $54K | +11.9% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 188,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.73 | $27K | +0.7% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,483,872 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.57 | $26K | +0.7% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,473,872 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Wu Junhua | director | Purchase | 19,500 @ $2.56 | $50K | +13.1% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 168,270 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.56 | $26K | +0.7% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,463,872 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.58 | $26K | +0.7% of holding | +12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,453,872 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Wu Junhua | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.55 | $26K | +7.2% of holding | +8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 148,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.55 | $26K | +0.7% of holding | +8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,443,872 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 16,000 @ $3.14 | $50K | +1.1% of holding | −24.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,433,872 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 17,500 @ $2.84 | $50K | +1.2% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,417,872 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 11,000 @ $2.71 | $30K | +0.8% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,400,372 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 11,500 @ $2.63 | $30K | +0.8% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,389,372 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 12,100 @ $2.48 | $30K | +0.9% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,377,872 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Wu Junhua | director | Purchase | 11,084 @ $2.49 | $28K | +8.7% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 138,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 12,400 @ $2.43 | $30K | +0.9% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,365,772 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Wu Junhua | director | Purchase | 5,372 @ $2.40 | $13K | +4.4% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,686 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 11,650 @ $2.58 | $30K | +0.9% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,353,372 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Wu Junhua | director | Purchase | 30,886 @ $2.54 | $78K | +33.8% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,314 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 11,600 @ $2.58 | $30K | +0.9% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,341,722 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Purchase | 12,000 @ $2.51 | $30K | +0.9% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,330,122 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Wu Junhua | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $2.47 | $74K | +48.8% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,428 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Wu Junhua | director | Purchase | 14,000 @ $2.40 | $34K | +29.5% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,428 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
11 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Yu Bin Helen | director | Option exercise | 5,603 | 17,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Yu Bin Helen | director | Option exercise | 16,809 | 42,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Yu Bin Helen | director | Award / grant | 18,000 | 58,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Qiu Wenbin | director | Award / grant | 174,000 | 579,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ye Changqing | director | Option exercise | 51,809 | 42,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ye Changqing | director | Option exercise | 17,269 | 17,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Ye Changqing | director | Award / grant | 42,000 | 93,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Chan Yiu Pong | director | Award / grant | 42,000 | 58,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Hsia Hsien-Chieng Steve | director | Award / grant | 42,000 | 58,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | YU BIN | director | Award / grant | 24,000 | 40,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Zhu Yanjie | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 433,353 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.