BZH · TickerCove

BZHBeazer Homes USA, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Residential Constructionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $33.35 · now $33.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BZH has typically landed between $26.86 and $41.83 — a range of −19.5% to +25.4% from the issuance price $33.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($33.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$33.35 · 96% of range

$18.03 low$34.07 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.4%

typical move · IQR 18.5%

−19.5%worst (p90)+25.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BZH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $33.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $33.35 (+0.0%)
typical $33.82 (+1.4%)
middle 50% $30.73–$36.91
90% range $26.86–$41.83

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-02-09	−75.6%	−79.0%	+0.0%
2009-02-06	−73.0%	−75.0%	+19.0%
2009-02-05	−71.6%	−71.6%	+35.2%
3 best
2009-03-10	+322.2%	+0.0%	+363.0%
2009-03-11	+310.3%	+0.0%	+331.0%
2009-03-09	+304.0%	+0.0%	+400.0%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−1.6%

n=20

Feb

35%

−7.2%

n=20

Mar

55%

+3.9%

n=20

Apr

60%

+13.3%

n=20

May

60%

−0.2%

n=20

Jun

45%

−3.6%

n=20

Jul

55%

+5.2%

n=20

Aug

55%

+2.3%

n=20

Sep

50%

−1.4%

n=20

Oct

50%

+0.2%

n=20

Nov

75%

+4.7%

n=20

Dec

45%

+0.9%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-05-09	KELLEY JOHN J III	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $21.50	$215K	+169.0% of holding	+0.3%	−17.3%	15,917	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-13	SHEPHERD DANNY R	director	Purchase	4,125 @ $24.29	$100K	+4.7% of holding	−4.9%	−1.8%	91,919	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10	Johnson Lloyd Emerson	director	Purchase	22,500 @ $22.23	$500K	+100.0% of holding	+3.9%	+0.2%	45,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10	Provencio Norma Ann	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $21.93	$110K	+89.3% of holding	+3.9%	+0.2%	10,600	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-07	Johnson Lloyd Emerson	director	Purchase	22,500 @ $22.68	$510K	ownership Δ n/a	+8.4%	−1.2%	22,500	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-07	MERRILL ALLAN P	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $21.83	$109K	+0.4% of holding	+8.4%	−1.2%	1,261,201	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-07	Goldberg David I	officer	Purchase	443 @ $22.80	$10K	+0.3% of holding	+8.4%	−1.2%	137,094	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-07	Dunn Michael Anthony	officer	Purchase	447 @ $22.28	$10K	+4.0% of holding	+8.4%	−1.2%	11,624	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-07	Dunn Michael Anthony	officer	Purchase	2 @ $22.33	$45	+0.0% of holding	+8.4%	−1.2%	11,177	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

44 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-01	Dunn Michael Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	328	22,557	Form 4
2026-02-04	SHEPHERD DANNY R	director	Award / grant	500	92,419	Form 4
2025-12-08	HECKES HOWARD C	director	Award / grant	5,988	5,988	Form 4
2025-11-20	MERRILL ALLAN P	director	Withheld for tax	5,349	1,385,656	Form 4
2025-11-20	Goldberg David I	officer	Withheld for tax	2,164	184,181	Form 4
2025-11-20	Sun Pei	officer	Withheld for tax	76	24,491	Form 4
2025-11-20	Dunn Michael Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	73	22,885	Form 4
2025-11-17	KELLEY JOHN J III	director	Award / grant	7,199	23,116	Form 4
2025-11-17	Dunn Michael Anthony	officer	Award / grant	5,815	22,958	Form 4
2025-11-17	Orser Peter M	director	Award / grant	7,199	85,523	Form 4
2025-11-17	WINKLE C CHRISTIAN	director	Award / grant	7,199	12,250	Form 4
2025-11-17	Sauvaget June	director	Award / grant	7,199	16,141	Form 4
2025-11-17	Sun Pei	officer	Award / grant	934	24,567	Form 4
2025-11-17	Steele Alyssa P.	director	Award / grant	7,199	16,141	Form 4
2025-11-17	Goldberg David I	officer	Award / grant	19,346	186,345	Form 4
2025-11-17	Johnson Lloyd Emerson	director	Award / grant	7,199	41,829	Form 4
2025-11-17	Dunn Michael Anthony	officer	Award / grant	5,316	17,143	Form 4
2025-11-17	Goldberg David I	officer	Award / grant	17,798	166,999	Form 4
2025-11-17	MERRILL ALLAN P	director	Award / grant	65,996	1,355,581	Form 4
2025-11-17	MERRILL ALLAN P	director	Award / grant	35,424	1,391,005	Form 4
2025-11-17	Provencio Norma Ann	director	Award / grant	7,199	105,388	Form 4
2025-11-14	MERRILL ALLAN P	director	Withheld for tax	33,635	1,308,081	Form 4
2025-11-14	MERRILL ALLAN P	director	Withheld for tax	12,592	1,295,489	Form 4
2025-11-14	Goldberg David I	officer	Withheld for tax	7,483	154,940	Form 4
2025-11-14	MERRILL ALLAN P	director	Withheld for tax	5,904	1,289,585	Form 4
2025-11-14	Goldberg David I	officer	Withheld for tax	3,948	150,992	Form 4
2025-11-14	Goldberg David I	officer	Withheld for tax	1,791	149,201	Form 4
2025-11-14	Sun Pei	officer	Withheld for tax	411	23,869	Form 4
2025-11-14	Dunn Michael Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	395	12,234	Form 4
2025-11-14	Dunn Michael Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	241	11,827	Form 4
2025-11-14	Sun Pei	officer	Withheld for tax	173	23,696	Form 4
2025-11-14	Dunn Michael Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	166	12,068	Form 4
2025-11-14	Sun Pei	officer	Withheld for tax	63	23,633	Form 4
2025-11-14	Goldberg David I	officer	Award / grant	25,329	162,423	Form 4
2025-11-14	MERRILL ALLAN P	director	Award / grant	75,515	1,341,716	Form 4
2025-11-14	Sun Pei	officer	Award / grant	1,390	24,280	Form 4
2025-11-14	Dunn Michael Anthony	officer	Award / grant	1,335	12,629	Form 4
2025-08-01	Dunn Michael Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	330	11,294	Form 4
2025-02-10	MERRILL ALLAN P	director	Option exercise	5,000	1,266,201	Form 4
2025-02-10	Goldberg David I	officer	Award / grant	443	443	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i