BZAI · TickerCove

BZAIBlaize Holdings Inc.Technology · Semiconductorsas of 2026-08-21

Horizon

Issued 2026-08-21 at $1.17 · now $0.59 (2026-09-16, −49.7% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-21 close, BZAI has typically landed between $0.60 and $1.99 — a range of −48.6% to +70.4% from the issuance price $1.17.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

395 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-12-23 – 2026-07-23 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,405 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-21 issuance close ($1.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-21, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$0.5883 · 2% of range

$0.4499 low$6.29 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,405 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−11.8%

typical move · IQR 38.8%

−48.6%worst (p90)+70.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BZAI has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-21 close of $1.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $0.5883 (-49.7%)
typical $1.03 (-11.8%)
middle 50% $0.805–$1.26
90% range $0.6014–$1.99

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 412 windows spanning 2024-12-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-01-13	−76.7%	−76.7%	+0.0%
2025-01-08	−73.5%	−73.5%	+0.7%
2025-01-14	−69.4%	−76.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-03-18	+147.1%	+0.0%	+147.1%
2026-03-19	+114.8%	−3.7%	+133.3%
2026-03-20	+105.8%	+0.0%	+142.3%

412 overlapping windows · 2024-12-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

−45.1%

n=2

Feb

−31.1%

n=2

Mar

50%

+10.1%

n=2

Apr

100%

+13.7%

n=2

May

−13.6%

n=2

Jun

50%

+13.3%

n=2

Jul

50%

−5.9%

n=2

Aug

−23.4%

n=2

Sep

50%

+8.6%

n=2

Oct

100%

+13.3%

n=1

Nov

−36.1%

n=1

Dec

−22.0%

n=1

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-06	Cannestra Anthony	director	Sale	50,000 @ $1.35	$68K	−100.0% of holding	−33.2%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-01	Sehmi Harminder	officer	Sale	40,609 @ $1.37	$56K	−13.5% of holding	−41.2%	not yet — horizon still open	259,773	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-08	Cannestra Anthony	director	Sale	50,000 @ $1.68	$84K	−100.0% of holding	−31.2%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01	Sehmi Harminder	officer	Sale	40,609 @ $1.82	$74K	−11.9% of holding	−27.7%	not yet — horizon still open	300,382	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11	Cannestra Anthony	director	Sale	50,000 @ $1.85	$93K	−100.0% of holding	−14.2%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-01	Sehmi Harminder	officer	Sale	40,609 @ $1.97	$80K	−10.6% of holding	−10.3%	not yet — horizon still open	340,991	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-20	Sehmi Harminder	officer	Sale	123,460 @ $2.28	$281K	−24.4% of holding	−47.5%	not yet — horizon still open	381,600	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-17	Munagala Dinakar	director	Sale	50,000 @ $2.54	$127K	−8.3% of holding	−53.6%	not yet — horizon still open	551,422	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-06	Cannestra Anthony	director	Sale	50,000 @ $1.75	$88K	−100.0% of holding	+13.7%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

105 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Evans Kimberly Peterson	officer	Withheld for tax	6,728	60,033	Form 4
2026-09-01	Evans Kimberly Peterson	officer	Option exercise	18,750	66,761	Form 4
2026-09-01	Evans Kimberly Peterson	officer	Option exercise	18,750	206,250	Form 4
2026-08-13	Lauk Kurt J	director	Award / grant	618,556	618,556	Form 4
2026-07-12	Patak Stephen Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	609	4,391	Form 4
2026-07-12	Patak Stephen Paul	officer	Option exercise	2,500	15,000	Form 4
2026-07-12	Patak Stephen Paul	officer	Option exercise	2,500	5,000	Form 4
2026-07-07	Bess Lane	director	Other acquisition	2,000,000	14,446,783	Form 4
2026-07-06	Cannestra Anthony	director	Option exercise	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-07-06	Cannestra Anthony	director	Option exercise	50,000	12,169	Form 4
2026-07-06	Cannestra Anthony	director	Option exercise	50,000	12,169	Form 4
2026-06-08	Cannestra Anthony	director	Option exercise	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-06-08	Cannestra Anthony	director	Option exercise	50,000	62,169	Form 4
2026-06-08	Cannestra Anthony	director	Option exercise	50,000	62,169	Form 4
2026-06-01	Evans Kimberly Peterson	officer	Withheld for tax	26,989	48,011	Form 4
2026-06-01	Evans Kimberly Peterson	officer	Option exercise	75,000	225,000	Form 4
2026-06-01	Evans Kimberly Peterson	officer	Option exercise	75,000	75,000	Form 4
2026-06-01	Evans Kimberly Peterson	officer	Option exercise	75,000	75,000	Form 4
2026-05-11	Cannestra Anthony	director	Option exercise	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-05-11	Cannestra Anthony	director	Option exercise	50,000	112,169	Form 4
2026-05-11	Cannestra Anthony	director	Option exercise	50,000	112,169	Form 4
2026-05-08	Bess Ventures & Advisory, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	2,000,000	13,653,976	Form 4
2026-05-08	Bess Lane	director	Other acquisition	2,000,000	12,446,783	Form 4
2026-05-08	Bess Lane	director	Other acquisition	2,000,000	12,446,783	Form 4
2026-04-20	Sehmi Harminder	officer	Option exercise	505,060	505,060	Form 4
2026-04-20	Sehmi Harminder	officer	Option exercise	505,060	269,176	Form 4
2026-04-20	Sehmi Harminder	officer	Option exercise	505,060	269,176	Form 4
2026-04-17	Munagala Dinakar	director	Option exercise	50,000	601,422	Form 4
2026-04-17	Munagala Dinakar	director	Option exercise	50,000	4,100,347	Form 4
2026-04-17	Munagala Dinakar	director	Option exercise	50,000	4,100,347	Form 4
2026-04-12	Patak Stephen Paul	officer	Option exercise	2,500	17,500	Form 4
2026-04-12	Patak Stephen Paul	officer	Option exercise	2,500	2,500	Form 4
2026-04-12	Patak Stephen Paul	officer	Option exercise	2,500	2,500	Form 4
2026-04-06	Cannestra Anthony	director	Option exercise	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-04-06	Cannestra Anthony	director	Option exercise	50,000	162,169	Form 4
2026-04-06	Cannestra Anthony	director	Option exercise	50,000	162,169	Form 4
2026-03-31	Ava Investors SA	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	5,145,638	11,737,254	Form 4
2026-03-31	Ava Investors SA	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	5,145,638	11,737,254	Form 4
2026-03-31	Ava Investors SA	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	5,145,638	11,737,254	Form 4
2026-03-31	Ava Investors SA	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	5,145,638	11,737,254	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

4d remaining

2026-08-2289% elapsed2026-09-21

Logged immutably 2026-08-22; scored automatically on 2026-09-21 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i