BYRNByrna Technologies Inc.Industrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.71 · now $3.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BYRN has typically landed between $2.52 and $5.14 — a range of −32.0% to +38.5% from the issuance price $3.71.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,981 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BYRN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$2.52worst · -32.0%$5.14best · +38.5%
  • now $3.71 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.53 (-4.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.94–$4.13
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.52–$5.14
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,981 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-07-10−81.3%−83.5%+0.0%
2010-06-21−79.8%−79.8%+0.0%
2011-07-29−75.0%−75.0%+0.0%
3 best
2006-10-18+278.6%−14.3%+278.6%
2020-05-13+275.0%−9.1%+275.0%
2011-08-30+260.0%+0.0%+400.0%

4,981 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+11.9%
n=20
Feb
35%
+2.4%
n=20
Mar
25%
−7.8%
n=20
Apr
40%
+3.5%
n=20
May
50%
+11.4%
n=20
Jun
50%
+10.2%
n=20
Jul
25%
−2.4%
n=20
Aug
45%
−1.9%
n=20
Sep
40%
+7.6%
n=20
Oct
30%
+3.8%
n=20
Nov
45%
+15.5%
n=20
Dec
40%
+8.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$28$32026-08-06: 1 insider purchase, $46K — ELMORE LEONARD J2026-07-28: 1 insider purchase, $6K — Hughes Herbert2026-07-27: 1 insider purchase, $9K — Hughes Herbert2026-07-24: 1 insider purchase, $30K — Reed Chris Lavern2026-07-23: 3 insider purchases, $67K — Hughes Herbert, Davis Conn Q. …2026-07-22: 4 insider purchases, $193K — Kennedy TJ, Davis Conn Q., Hughes Herbert, KEARNES LAURILEE2026-04-15: 1 insider purchase, $10K — Ganz Bryan2025-10-10: 2 insider sales, $1.3M — Ganz Bryan, Hughes Herbert2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $1.3M2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $10K2026-07: 10 open-market purchases, $305K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $46K↑ buys↓ salesdirector ELMORE LEONARD J — Purchase on 2026-08-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hughes Herbert — Purchase on 2026-07-28, filed same daydirector Hughes Herbert — Purchase on 2026-07-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Reed Chris Lavern — Purchase on 2026-07-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hughes Herbert — Purchase on 2026-07-23, filed same daydirector Hughes Herbert — Purchase on 2026-07-23, filed same daydirector Davis Conn Q. — Purchase on 2026-07-23, filed same daydirector Kennedy TJ — Purchase on 2026-07-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Davis Conn Q. — Purchase on 2026-07-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hughes Herbert — Purchase on 2026-07-22, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer KEARNES LAURILEE — Purchase on 2026-07-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ganz Bryan — Purchase on 2026-04-15, filed same daydirector Ganz Bryan — Sale on 2025-10-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hughes Herbert — Sale on 2025-10-10, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06ELMORE LEONARD JdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $4.64$46K+19.7% of holding−15.8%not yet — horizon still open60,811Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-28Hughes HerbertdirectorPurchase1,499 @ $3.86$6K+0.9% of holding−10.5%not yet — horizon still open173,477Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-27Hughes HerbertdirectorPurchase2,501 @ $3.77$9K+1.5% of holding−11.1%not yet — horizon still open171,978Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-24Reed Chris LaverndirectorPurchase8,150 @ $3.63$30K+15.2% of holding−1.1%not yet — horizon still open61,720Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-23Hughes HerbertdirectorPurchase12,500 @ $3.40$43K+8.0% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open169,477Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-23Hughes HerbertdirectorPurchase3,703 @ $3.42$13K+2.4% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open156,977Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-23Davis Conn Q.directorPurchase3,340 @ $3.51$12K+17.7% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open22,198Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-22Kennedy TJdirectorPurchase29,000 @ $3.53$102Kownership Δ n/a+0.2%not yet — horizon still open29,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-22Davis Conn Q.directorPurchase18,768 @ $3.46$65Kownership Δ n/a+0.2%not yet — horizon still open18,768Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-22Hughes HerbertdirectorPurchase5,478 @ $3.47$19K+3.7% of holding+0.2%not yet — horizon still open153,274Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-22KEARNES LAURILEEofficerPurchase2,000 @ $3.42$7K+11.8% of holding+0.2%not yet — horizon still open18,887Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-15Ganz BryandirectorPurchase1,500 @ $6.56$10K+0.4% of holding−29.5%not yet — horizon still open382,673Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-10Ganz BryandirectorSale40,000 @ $29.90$1.2M−12.2% of holding−35.1%−84.2%288,059Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-10Hughes HerbertdirectorSale5,000 @ $29.00$145K−3.7% of holding−35.1%−84.2%130,226Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-22Rooney EmilydirectorPurchase2,500 @ $20.50$51K+7.1% of holding+2.3%−29.9%37,564Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-15Brasseur JohnofficerPurchase728 @ $20.19$15K+8.7% of holding+15.9%−9.5%9,068Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-20Ganz BryandirectorSale50,000 @ $29.37$1.5M−13.2% of holding−30.3%−38.9%328,059Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20Wager LisaofficerSale12,500 @ $29.38$367K−5.6% of holding−30.3%−38.9%212,055Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20Hughes HerbertdirectorSale12,000 @ $29.49$354K−8.2% of holding−30.3%−38.9%135,226Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-12Pham LuanofficerSale33,483 @ $30.19$1.0M−63.6% of holding−25.3%−42.9%19,148Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

96 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-12Keravuori Rose P.directorAward / grant561561Form 4
2026-07-29Roth Adam L.directorOption exercise4,3790Form 4
2026-07-29Reed Chris LaverndirectorOption exercise4,8650Form 4
2026-07-29ELMORE LEONARD JdirectorOption exercise4,8650Form 4
2026-07-29Kennedy TJdirectorOption exercise4,3790Form 4
2026-07-29Rooney EmilydirectorOption exercise4,8650Form 4
2026-07-29Hughes HerbertdirectorOption exercise4,8650Form 4
2026-07-29Kennedy TJdirectorOption exercise4,37933,379Form 4
2026-07-29Reed Chris LaverndirectorOption exercise4,86566,585Form 4
2026-07-29Rooney EmilydirectorOption exercise4,86553,957Form 4
2026-07-29Roth Adam L.directorOption exercise4,3794,379Form 4
2026-07-29ELMORE LEONARD JdirectorOption exercise4,86550,811Form 4
2026-07-29Roth Adam L.directorOption exercise4,3794,379Form 4
2026-07-29Rooney EmilydirectorOption exercise4,86553,957Form 4
2026-07-29Reed Chris LaverndirectorOption exercise4,86566,585Form 4
2026-07-29Kennedy TJdirectorOption exercise4,37933,379Form 4
2026-07-29Hughes HerbertdirectorOption exercise4,865178,342Form 4
2026-07-29ELMORE LEONARD JdirectorOption exercise4,86550,811Form 4
2026-07-29Hughes HerbertdirectorOption exercise4,865178,342Form 4
2026-07-15KEARNES LAURILEEofficerOption exercise7,50016,887Form 4
2026-07-15KEARNES LAURILEEofficerOption exercise7,5000Form 4
2026-07-15KEARNES LAURILEEofficerOption exercise7,50016,887Form 4
2026-07-15KEARNES LAURILEEofficerOption exercise7,5000Form 4
2026-05-05KEARNES LAURILEEofficerOption exercise2,3139,387Form 4
2026-05-05KEARNES LAURILEEofficerOption exercise2,3134,080Form 4
2026-05-05KEARNES LAURILEEofficerOption exercise2,3139,387Form 4
2026-05-05KEARNES LAURILEEofficerOption exercise2,3134,080Form 4
2026-03-17Davis Conn Q.directorAward / grant39,02239,022Form 4
2026-03-17KEARNES LAURILEEofficerAward / grant18,21018,210Form 4
2026-03-17Pham LuanofficerAward / grant20,81220,812Form 4
2026-03-17Pham LuanofficerAward / grant10,40510,405Form 4
2026-03-17Pham LuanofficerAward / grant20,81120,811Form 4
2026-03-02Davis Conn Q.directorAward / grant19,39519,395Form 4
2026-03-02Kennedy TJdirectorAward / grant810810Form 4
2026-03-02Hughes HerbertdirectorOption exercise1,4594,865Form 4
2026-03-02Hughes HerbertdirectorOption exercise1,459147,796Form 4
2026-03-02Hughes HerbertdirectorOption exercise1,459147,796Form 4
2026-01-22Rooney EmilydirectorOption exercise11,5280Form 4
2026-01-22Hughes HerbertdirectorOption exercise16,1110Form 4
2026-01-22Reed Chris LaverndirectorOption exercise11,5280Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.