Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.86 · now $11.86 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BYFC has typically landed between $9.66 and $14.79 — a range of −18.5% to +24.7% from the issuance price $11.86.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,000 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.86) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BYFC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.86 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.86 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.57 (-2.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.64–$12.5
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.66–$14.79
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,000 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2010-05-28 | −45.2% | −47.9% | +0.0% |
| 2010-06-01 | −44.8% | −47.5% | +0.0% |
| 2010-05-21 | −44.0% | −44.0% | +7.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-06-03 | +137.1% | −7.1% | +137.1% |
| 2020-06-02 | +122.1% | −7.1% | +122.1% |
| 2020-05-20 | +112.1% | −7.1% | +112.1% |
5,000 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+5.9%
n=20
Feb
50%
−0.0%
n=20
Mar
45%
+0.3%
n=20
Apr
40%
−3.4%
n=20
May
55%
+5.1%
n=20
Jun
60%
−0.2%
n=20
Jul
50%
+5.0%
n=20
Aug
35%
+0.7%
n=20
Sep
40%
−2.0%
n=20
Oct
40%
−2.7%
n=20
Nov
40%
−2.9%
n=20
Dec
45%
−2.4%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 4,887 @ $9.40 | $46K | −11.7% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,865 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 2,353 @ $9.46 | $22K | −6.5% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,936 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 574 @ $9.40 | $5K | −1.6% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 263 @ $9.57 | $3K | −0.8% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 202 @ $9.50 | $2K | −0.6% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,629 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 107 @ $9.38 | $1K | −0.3% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,752 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 100 @ $9.46 | $946 | −0.3% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,836 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 97 @ $9.36 | $908 | −0.2% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,862 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 5 @ $9.54 | $48 | −0.0% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,623 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 5 @ $9.46 | $47 | −0.0% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,831 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 3 @ $9.37 | $28 | −0.0% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,859 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 2 @ $9.41 | $19 | −0.0% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,289 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 1 @ $9.68 | $10 | −0.0% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,359 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 1 @ $9.53 | $10 | −0.0% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,628 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 568 @ $9.58 | $5K | −1.3% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,161 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 300 @ $9.51 | $3K | −0.7% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,759 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 200 @ $9.60 | $2K | −0.5% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,959 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 200 @ $9.56 | $2K | −0.5% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,059 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 100 @ $9.69 | $969 | −0.2% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,259 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 30 @ $9.59 | $288 | −0.1% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,729 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 2 @ $9.59 | $19 | −0.0% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,159 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Driver John | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $9.36 | $61K | −70.6% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,711 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | DAVIDSON ROBERT C JR | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $7.10 | $7K | −10.6% of holding | −12.6% | +5.2% | 8,452 | Form 4 · filed 37 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | DAVIDSON ROBERT C JR | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $7.21 | $7K | −9.6% of holding | −14.5% | +4.3% | 9,452 | Form 4 · filed 38 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-13 | DAVIDSON ROBERT C JR | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $7.32 | $7K | −8.7% of holding | −14.7% | +1.9% | 10,452 | Form 4 · filed 39 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-10 | DAVIDSON ROBERT C JR | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $7.39 | $7K | −8.0% of holding | −17.2% | −3.4% | 11,452 | Form 4 · filed 42 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | DAVIDSON ROBERT C JR | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $7.61 | $8K | −7.4% of holding | −13.8% | −1.9% | 12,452 | Form 4 · filed 43 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | DAVIDSON ROBERT C JR | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $7.70 | $8K | −6.9% of holding | −15.3% | +0.6% | 13,452 | Form 4 · filed 44 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | DAVIDSON ROBERT C JR | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $7.61 | $8K | −6.5% of holding | −16.1% | −3.2% | 14,452 | Form 4 · filed 45 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | DAVIDSON ROBERT C JR | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $7.70 | $8K | −6.1% of holding | −18.8% | −4.2% | 15,452 | Form 4 · filed 46 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | DAVIDSON ROBERT C JR | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $7.50 | $8K | −5.7% of holding | −17.9% | −2.6% | 16,452 | Form 4 · filed 49 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | DAVIDSON ROBERT C JR | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $7.20 | $7K | −5.4% of holding | −15.7% | +2.8% | 17,452 | Form 4 · filed 50 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-31 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Sale | 445 @ $7.79 | $3K | −1.2% of holding | −0.4% | −1.1% | 37,780 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
31 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Carew Tina | officer | Award / grant | 4,921 | 4,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Argrett Brian E | director | Award / grant | 23,793 | 125,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Ibrahim Zack | officer | Award / grant | 11,521 | 51,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Allen John Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 7,833 | 16,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Washington LaShanya Demetrice | officer | Award / grant | 6,480 | 22,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Jennings William Justin | officer | Award / grant | 4,458 | 9,394 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Award / grant | 2,675 | 43,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Ross Dutch C. III | director | Award / grant | 2,675 | 14,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | DAVIDSON ROBERT C JR | director | Award / grant | 2,675 | 11,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Hentges Mary | director | Award / grant | 2,675 | 2,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | McGrady David J. | director | Award / grant | 2,675 | 10,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | JOHNS MARIE C | director | Award / grant | 2,675 | 10,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Driver John | director | Award / grant | 2,675 | 9,211 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Donovan Mary Ann | director | Award / grant | 2,675 | 10,223 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | Jennings William Justin | officer | Award / grant | 4,936 | 4,936 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-28 | Allen John Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 8,183 | 8,183 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | Argrett Brian E | director | Award / grant | 21,368 | 101,959 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | Ibrahim Zack | officer | Award / grant | 8,101 | 39,746 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | McCloud Ruth | officer | Award / grant | 5,498 | 29,108 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | Wells Sonja Sanders | officer | Award / grant | 5,359 | 27,622 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | Tellenbach John Frederick | officer | Award / grant | 4,928 | 10,226 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | Washington LaShanya Demetrice | officer | Award / grant | 4,879 | 15,820 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | Sur Elizabeth Farrelly | officer | Award / grant | 4,368 | 4,368 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | Ross Dutch C. III | director | Award / grant | 2,904 | 11,387 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | Donovan Mary Ann | director | Award / grant | 2,904 | 7,548 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | DAVIDSON ROBERT C JR | director | Award / grant | 2,904 | 18,452 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | McGrady David J. | director | Award / grant | 2,904 | 7,548 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | Driver John | director | Award / grant | 2,904 | 6,536 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | LONGBRAKE WILLIAM A | director | Award / grant | 2,904 | 15,048 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | JOHNS MARIE C | director | Award / grant | 2,904 | 7,548 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | Bradshaw Wayne-Kent A. | director | Award / grant | 2,904 | 40,864 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.