BYDBoyd Gaming CorporationConsumer Cyclical · Gambling, Resorts & Casinosas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $75.60 · now $75.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BYD has typically landed between $66.65 and $84.59 — a range of −11.8% to +11.9% from the issuance price $75.60.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($75.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BYD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $75.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$66.65worst · -11.8%$84.59best · +11.9%
  • now $75.6 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $76 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $72.1–$79.9
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $66.65–$84.59
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−76.7%−76.7%+3.1%
2020-02-13−67.6%−67.6%+3.9%
2020-02-19−67.1%−77.0%+1.9%
3 best
2009-03-31+146.6%+0.0%+146.6%
2009-03-30+138.6%+0.0%+138.6%
2009-04-01+135.5%+0.0%+135.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+2.5%
n=20
Feb
35%
+0.1%
n=20
Mar
45%
−0.6%
n=20
Apr
55%
+10.3%
n=20
May
55%
+2.6%
n=20
Jun
35%
−4.1%
n=20
Jul
55%
+1.2%
n=20
Aug
35%
−1.5%
n=20
Sep
55%
−0.1%
n=20
Oct
55%
−0.3%
n=20
Nov
70%
+2.5%
n=20
Dec
70%
+3.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$91$752026-08-24: 1 insider sale, $984 — JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYD2026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Hirsberg Josh2026-06-09: 1 insider sale, $304K — Clinton Uri2026-06-03: 1 insider sale, $8.6M — SMITH KEITH2026-05-13: 1 insider sale, $100K — SPADAFOR CHRISTINE J.2026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $5.3M — JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYD2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $3.2M — JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYD2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Thompson Stephen S.2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — Hirsberg Josh2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $2.5M — BOYD WILLIAM R2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — BOYD WILLIAM R2025-09-04: 1 insider sale, $8.7M — JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYD2025-08-22: 2 insider sales, $5.5M — Hirsberg Josh, SMITH KEITH2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — SMITH KEITH2025-08-18: 1 insider sale, $4.2M — SMITH KEITH2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $8.4M — JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYD2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $798K — BOYD WILLIAM R2025-08: 9 open-market sales, $22.8M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $8.7M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $1.6M2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $6.2M2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $8.5M2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $8.9M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $1.1M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $984↑ buys↓ salesdirector JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYD — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hirsberg Josh — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed same dayofficer Clinton Uri — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed same daydirector SMITH KEITH — Sale on 2026-06-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SPADAFOR CHRISTINE J. — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYD — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed same daydirector JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYD — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Thompson Stephen S. — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Hirsberg Josh — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BOYD WILLIAM R — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BOYD WILLIAM R — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 5 days after the tradedirector JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYD — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hirsberg Josh — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 3 days after the tradedirector SMITH KEITH — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same daydirector SMITH KEITH — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMITH KEITH — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYD — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BOYD WILLIAM R — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-24JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorSale12 @ $82.00$984−0.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,611,671Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Hirsberg JoshofficerSale12,777 @ $89.76$1.1M−2.9% of holding−15.1%not yet — horizon still open422,969Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-09Clinton UriofficerSale3,468 @ $87.69$304K−5.8% of holding−4.3%not yet — horizon still open56,818Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-03SMITH KEITHdirectorSale100,000 @ $85.90$8.6M−9.1% of holding+2.6%not yet — horizon still open996,981Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-13SPADAFOR CHRISTINE J.directorSale1,237 @ $80.91$100K−12.4% of holding+8.6%not yet — horizon still open8,757Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorSale62,914 @ $84.03$5.3M−3.8% of holding+0.5%not yet — horizon still open1,609,808Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-01JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorSale37,086 @ $85.27$3.2M−2.2% of holding−4.9%not yet — horizon still open1,672,722Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27Thompson Stephen S.officerSale19,530 @ $83.59$1.6M−47.0% of holding+4.2%−16.8%22,009Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-26Hirsberg JoshofficerSale23,924 @ $85.86$2.1M−5.2% of holding−0.6%−21.2%435,746Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-18BOYD WILLIAM RdirectorSale30,000 @ $84.84$2.5M−1.5% of holding+2.1%−14.6%1,930,447Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-07BOYD WILLIAM RdirectorSale20,000 @ $80.36$1.6M−1.0% of holding−3.1%−9.0%1,960,447Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-09-04JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorSale100,000 @ $86.62$8.7M−5.5% of holding−3.1%−11.1%1,704,379Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-22Hirsberg JoshofficerSale40,035 @ $85.41$3.4M−8.7% of holding−3.5%−7.2%420,185Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-22SMITH KEITHdirectorSale25,000 @ $85.21$2.1M−2.3% of holding−3.5%−7.2%1,046,689Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19SMITH KEITHdirectorSale25,000 @ $83.91$2.1M−2.3% of holding−4.0%−5.8%1,071,689Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-18SMITH KEITHdirectorSale50,000 @ $83.09$4.2M−4.4% of holding−2.5%−4.9%1,096,689Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-13JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorSale100,000 @ $84.17$8.4M−6.2% of holding−1.5%−8.4%1,504,379Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12BOYD WILLIAM RdirectorSale9,774 @ $81.61$798K−39.2% of holding+0.8%−7.8%15,188Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-11BOYD WILLIAM RdirectorSale3,226 @ $81.57$263K−11.4% of holding+2.1%−5.3%24,962Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08Clinton UriofficerSale2,500 @ $82.08$205K−5.1% of holding+2.0%−8.1%46,330Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-01Thompson Stephen S.officerSale15,906 @ $83.25$1.3M−29.2% of holding−0.6%−11.0%38,609Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-02BOYD WILLIAM RdirectorSale39,040 @ $69.61$2.7M+2.4% of holding+0.1%−10.7%1,680,447Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-01BOYD WILLIAM RdirectorSale60,960 @ $69.57$4.2M+3.7% of holding+1.4%−10.0%1,719,487Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-03SPADAFOR CHRISTINE J.directorSale1,125 @ $75.28$85K−18.8% of holding−7.7%+5.4%4,852Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19BOYD WILLIAM RdirectorSale15,000 @ $79.32$1.2M−1.0% of holding−6.9%+0.9%1,472,970Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-12JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorSale49,800 @ $77.59$3.9M−3.7% of holding−4.3%+2.1%1,296,828Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-12Bogich TedofficerSale18,705 @ $77.13$1.4M−31.1% of holding−4.3%+2.1%41,496Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-11JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorSale50,000 @ $77.68$3.9M−3.6% of holding−6.2%+1.9%1,346,628Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-11Clinton UriofficerSale4,257 @ $76.87$327K−11.4% of holding−6.2%+1.9%33,101Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-12SPADAFOR CHRISTINE J.directorSale660 @ $75.68$50K−9.9% of holding+0.6%+2.3%5,977Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

86 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-22Andersen Stacia J.P.directorAward / grant2,0432,043Form 4
2026-07-22ROETH GEORGE CdirectorAward / grant2,0432,043Form 4
2026-06-30JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorWithheld for tax30,8231,611,683Form 4
2026-06-30JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorAward / grant30,3511,642,506Form 4
2026-05-07SPADAFOR CHRISTINE J.directorAward / grant2,3479,994Form 4
2026-05-07BOYD WILLIAM RdirectorAward / grant2,34717,535Form 4
2026-05-07WHETSELL PAUL WdirectorAward / grant2,34725,358Form 4
2026-05-07Hartmeier Michael A.directorAward / grant2,3478,315Form 4
2026-05-07Bailey John RobertdirectorAward / grant2,34729,858Form 4
2026-05-07JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorAward / grant2,3471,612,155Form 4
2026-05-07Thoman A. RandalldirectorAward / grant2,34712,854Form 4
2026-02-26Hirsberg JoshofficerOption exercise23,924459,670Form 4
2026-02-26Hirsberg JoshofficerOption exercise23,9240Form 4
2026-02-23SMITH KEITHdirectorAward / grant35,6081,096,981Form 4
2026-02-22SMITH KEITHdirectorWithheld for tax41,2341,061,373Form 4
2026-02-22Hirsberg JoshofficerWithheld for tax16,918435,746Form 4
2026-02-22Thompson Stephen S.officerWithheld for tax12,86841,539Form 4
2026-02-22Clinton UriofficerWithheld for tax9,49960,286Form 4
2026-02-22JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorWithheld for tax3,5241,709,808Form 4
2026-02-22Nelson Lori M.officerWithheld for tax74316,858Form 4
2026-02-22Thompson Stephen S.officerAward / grant15,79854,407Form 4
2026-02-22Nelson Lori M.officerAward / grant52517,601Form 4
2026-02-22JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorAward / grant8,9531,713,332Form 4
2026-02-22Hirsberg JoshofficerAward / grant16,455452,664Form 4
2026-02-22Clinton UriofficerAward / grant11,58669,785Form 4
2026-02-22SMITH KEITHdirectorAward / grant63,1881,102,607Form 4
2026-02-19Nelson Lori M.officerAward / grant1,33517,076Form 4
2026-02-19Clinton UriofficerAward / grant11,86958,199Form 4
2026-02-19SMITH KEITHdirectorAward / grant42,7301,039,419Form 4
2026-02-19Hirsberg JoshofficerAward / grant16,024436,209Form 4
2026-01-05Clinton UriofficerAward / grant1,2181,218Form 4
2026-01-05SMITH KEITHdirectorAward / grant3,2203,220Form 4
2026-01-05JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorAward / grant618618Form 4
2026-01-05Hirsberg JoshofficerAward / grant1,6101,610Form 4
2026-01-05Thompson Stephen S.officerAward / grant1,3751,375Form 4
2025-08-25SMITH KEITHdirectorGift50,000996,689Form 4
2025-08-21BOYD WILLIAM RdirectorOther acquisition45,48287,034Form 4
2025-08-21JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorOther acquisition45,48245,482Form 4
2025-08-18JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorOther acquisition909,0911,487,858Form 4
2025-08-18JOHNSON MARIANNE BOYDdirectorOther acquisition300,0001,804,379Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.