BYByline Bancorp, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $37.62 · now $37.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BY has typically landed between $33.75 and $42.76 — a range of −10.3% to +13.7% from the issuance price $37.62.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,294 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-06-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($37.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $37.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$33.75worst · -10.3%$42.76best · +13.7%
  • now $37.62 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $37.74 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.68–$39.81
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $33.75–$42.76
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,294 windows spanning 2017-06-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−55.9%−55.9%+0.9%
2020-02-20−53.8%−56.3%+0.0%
2020-02-21−53.8%−56.0%+0.0%
3 best
2021-01-28+37.9%+0.0%+37.9%
2020-05-15+37.6%+0.0%+54.1%
2020-05-06+36.9%−10.0%+36.9%

2,294 overlapping windows · 2017-06-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+2.2%
n=9
Feb
44%
+2.5%
n=9
Mar
33%
−6.9%
n=9
Apr
44%
+0.4%
n=9
May
67%
+0.7%
n=9
Jun
78%
+3.2%
n=9
Jul
70%
+5.4%
n=10
Aug
40%
−1.3%
n=10
Sep
20%
−2.9%
n=10
Oct
44%
+1.9%
n=9
Nov
78%
+5.7%
n=9
Dec
78%
+1.8%
n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$40$252026-08-19: 2 insider purchases, $15K — HERSETH MARY JO S., KISTNER WILLIAM G2026-08-13: 1 insider sale, $774K — HERENCIA ROBERTO R2026-08-12: 1 insider sale, $94K — Rose Dana2026-08-07: 2 insider sales, $23.5M — DEL VALLE PEROCHENA ANTONIO, MBG INVESTORS I, L.P.2026-05-04: 1 insider purchase, $3K — KISTNER WILLIAM G2026-03-16: 1 insider purchase, $9K — HERSETH MARY JO S.2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $146K — Barkidjija John2026-02-17: 1 insider purchase, $25K — Doran Brian F2026-01-28: 1 insider purchase, $5K — CABRERA PHILLIP R.2025-10-28: 2 insider sales, $629K — ABRAHAM THOMAS …2025-10-28: 1 insider purchase, $2K — KISTNER WILLIAM G2025-09-12: 1 insider sale, $57K — Rose Dana2025-08-28: 1 insider sale, $344K — Ptacin Brogan2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $2K2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $344K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $57K2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $2K2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $629K2026-01: 1 open-market purchase, $5K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $25K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $146K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $9K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $3K2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $15K2026-08: 4 open-market sales, $24.3M↑ buys↓ salesdirector HERSETH MARY JO S. — Purchase on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KISTNER WILLIAM G — Purchase on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HERENCIA ROBERTO R — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rose Dana — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed same daydirector DEL VALLE PEROCHENA ANTONIO — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner MBG INVESTORS I, L.P. — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector KISTNER WILLIAM G — Purchase on 2026-05-04, filed same daydirector HERSETH MARY JO S. — Purchase on 2026-03-16, filed same dayofficer Barkidjija John — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Doran Brian F — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed same daydirector CABRERA PHILLIP R. — Purchase on 2026-01-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer ABRAHAM THOMAS — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer ABRAHAM THOMAS — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KISTNER WILLIAM G — Purchase on 2025-10-28, filed same dayofficer Rose Dana — Sale on 2025-09-12, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Ptacin Brogan — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19HERSETH MARY JO S.directorPurchase300 @ $38.40$12K+1.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open19,100Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19KISTNER WILLIAM GdirectorPurchase100 @ $38.30$4K+0.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open14,289Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-13HERENCIA ROBERTO RdirectorSale19,750 @ $39.21$774K−4.6% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open411,643Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12Rose DanaofficerSale2,421 @ $39.00$94K−17.3% of holding−0.4%not yet — horizon still open11,605Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-07DEL VALLE PEROCHENA ANTONIOdirectorSale300,000 @ $39.10$11.7M−2.5% of holding−0.5%not yet — horizon still open11,535,145Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07MBG INVESTORS I, L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale300,000 @ $39.10$11.7M−2.5% of holding−0.5%not yet — horizon still open11,535,145Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-04KISTNER WILLIAM GdirectorPurchase100 @ $31.97$3K+0.7% of holding−2.5%not yet — horizon still open14,189Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-16HERSETH MARY JO S.directorPurchase300 @ $30.83$9K+1.6% of holding+3.6%+12.1%18,800Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-26Barkidjija JohnofficerSale4,509 @ $32.33$146K−19.0% of holding+2.5%+6.0%19,243Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-17Doran Brian FofficerPurchase750 @ $33.13$25Kownership Δ n/a−6.4%+5.7%750Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-28CABRERA PHILLIP R.directorPurchase169 @ $31.03$5K+4.3% of holding+2.4%+20.2%4,129Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-28ABRAHAM THOMASofficerSale20,000 @ $26.87$537K−34.0% of holding+4.4%+13.4%38,882Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-28ABRAHAM THOMASofficerSale3,400 @ $26.98$92K−5.5% of holding+4.4%+13.4%58,882Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-28KISTNER WILLIAM GdirectorPurchase65 @ $27.56$2K+0.5% of holding+4.4%+13.4%14,089Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-12Rose DanaofficerSale1,999 @ $28.76$57K−16.4% of holding−9.2%+3.6%10,192Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-28Ptacin BroganofficerSale11,812 @ $29.10$344K−35.2% of holding−6.3%+3.6%21,774Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-08KISTNER WILLIAM GdirectorPurchase60 @ $25.70$2K+0.4% of holding+10.1%+21.6%14,024Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-13HERSETH MARY JO S.directorPurchase2,000 @ $25.33$51K+12.1% of holding+5.1%+8.0%18,500Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-13KISTNER WILLIAM GdirectorPurchase164 @ $25.29$4K+1.2% of holding+5.1%+8.0%13,964Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-11DEL VALLE PEROCHENA ANTONIOdirectorPurchase40,808 @ $24.75$1.0Mownership Δ n/a+6.1%+3.0%40,808Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-11KENT STEVEN P.directorPurchase4,125 @ $24.75$102K+6.1% of holding+6.1%+3.0%71,750Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-11HERENCIA ROBERTO RdirectorPurchase4,040 @ $24.75$100K+1.3% of holding+6.1%+3.0%326,769Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-11CABRERA PHILLIP R.directorPurchase2,360 @ $24.75$58K+147.5% of holding+6.1%+3.0%3,960Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-10BIGGAM MEGANofficerSale3,611 @ $26.75$97K−17.0% of holding+0.9%−2.7%17,630Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09BIGGAM MEGANofficerSale8,576 @ $26.75$229K−32.7% of holding+1.8%−3.4%17,630Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-06HERSETH MARY JO S.directorPurchase268 @ $27.16$7K+1.7% of holding−0.1%−6.8%16,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04KISTNER WILLIAM GdirectorPurchase65 @ $27.77$2K+0.5% of holding−1.2%−7.3%13,800Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-27Barkidjija JohnofficerSale4,468 @ $28.18$126K−18.4% of holding−2.3%−7.6%19,878Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25ABRAHAM THOMASofficerSale6,658 @ $28.86$192K−9.7% of holding−2.2%−6.3%62,282Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

147 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Ptacin BroganofficerDisposition9,45025,859Form 4
2026-08-03Ptacin BroganofficerAward / grant9,45035,309Form 4
2026-08-03Ptacin BroganofficerOption exercise9,4500Form 4
2026-06-08SACRISTAN CARLOS RUIZdirectorAward / grant1,53313,533Form 4
2026-06-08Hugues Velez MargaritadirectorAward / grant1,5338,722Form 4
2026-06-02Hugues Velez MargaritadirectorWithheld for tax5307,189Form 4
2026-04-16ABRAHAM THOMASofficerAward / grant2,40645,539Form 4
2026-02-22HERENCIA ROBERTO RdirectorWithheld for tax9,898431,393Form 4
2026-02-22HERENCIA ROBERTO RdirectorWithheld for tax7,289411,421Form 4
2026-02-22Paracchini Alberto JdirectorWithheld for tax3,415188,990Form 4
2026-02-22ABRAHAM THOMASofficerWithheld for tax2,84343,133Form 4
2026-02-22Paracchini Alberto JdirectorWithheld for tax2,743194,276Form 4
2026-02-22Bell Thomas J IIIofficerWithheld for tax2,73154,155Form 4
2026-02-22Bell Thomas J IIIofficerWithheld for tax2,32857,374Form 4
2026-02-22Fucinato MarkofficerWithheld for tax1,41923,330Form 4
2026-02-22Ptacin BroganofficerWithheld for tax1,33824,302Form 4
2026-02-22Barkidjija JohnofficerWithheld for tax1,31122,356Form 4
2026-02-22Rose DanaofficerWithheld for tax1,13912,344Form 4
2026-02-22Olano Maria Sherylle AofficerWithheld for tax1,03218,768Form 4
2026-02-22Fucinato MarkofficerWithheld for tax93424,689Form 4
2026-02-22Ptacin BroganofficerWithheld for tax85825,859Form 4
2026-02-22Rose DanaofficerWithheld for tax85514,026Form 4
2026-02-22Barkidjija JohnofficerWithheld for tax83823,752Form 4
2026-02-22Mando NicolasofficerWithheld for tax77214,525Form 4
2026-02-22BIGGAM MEGANofficerWithheld for tax77233,400Form 4
2026-02-22JOHNSON MICHELLE LYNNofficerWithheld for tax7029,630Form 4
2026-02-22BIGGAM MEGANofficerWithheld for tax67834,638Form 4
2026-02-22JOHNSON MICHELLE LYNNofficerWithheld for tax63711,058Form 4
2026-02-22Mando NicolasofficerWithheld for tax63615,593Form 4
2026-02-22Doran Brian FofficerAward / grant1,7832,533Form 4
2026-02-22Paracchini Alberto JdirectorAward / grant8,029197,019Form 4
2026-02-22ABRAHAM THOMASofficerAward / grant7,09445,976Form 4
2026-02-22JOHNSON MICHELLE LYNNofficerAward / grant2,36710,332Form 4
2026-02-22JOHNSON MICHELLE LYNNofficerAward / grant2,06511,695Form 4
2026-02-22Rose DanaofficerAward / grant3,29113,483Form 4
2026-02-22Rose DanaofficerAward / grant2,53714,881Form 4
2026-02-22HERENCIA ROBERTO RdirectorAward / grant24,809418,710Form 4
2026-02-22Olano Maria Sherylle AofficerAward / grant2,37819,800Form 4
2026-02-22Mando NicolasofficerAward / grant2,23115,297Form 4
2026-02-22Mando NicolasofficerAward / grant1,70416,229Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.