Issued 2026-09-16 at $24.88 · now $24.88 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BXSL has typically landed between $22.97 and $26.83 — a range of −7.7% to +7.8% from the issuance price $24.88.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,204 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($24.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BXSL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $24.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $24.88 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $25.09 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.33–$25.85
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.97–$26.83
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-12-23 | −22.2% | −22.2% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-27 | −18.8% | −21.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-10 | −16.7% | −16.7% | +1.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-11-23 | +20.8% | −0.4% | +20.8% |
| 2021-11-24 | +18.8% | −1.0% | +20.2% |
| 2021-11-03 | +13.8% | +0.0% | +16.2% |
1,204 overlapping windows · 2021-10-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Bass Robert J | director | Purchase | 2,095 @ $23.80 | $50K | +9.1% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,107 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | ENNS LUCIE | officer | Purchase | 1,045 @ $23.48 | $25K | ownership Δ n/a | +0.3% | −4.3% | 1,045 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Clark James Frederic | other | Purchase | 750 @ $23.78 | $18K | +37.5% of holding | −1.1% | −4.8% | 2,750 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Rubenstein Katherine | officer | Purchase | 1,035 @ $24.08 | $25K | +21.9% of holding | −1.6% | −4.5% | 5,771 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Clark James Frederic | other | Purchase | 2,000 @ $26.68 | $53K | ownership Δ n/a | +4.5% | −13.9% | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Bass Robert J | director | Purchase | 3,760 @ $26.63 | $100K | +21.6% of holding | +0.2% | −6.8% | 21,167 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Bass Robert J | director | Purchase | 1,626 @ $30.78 | $50K | +10.3% of holding | −0.6% | −26.7% | 17,403 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.