BXMTBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.29 · now $13.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BXMT has typically landed between $11.63 and $14.83 — a range of −12.5% to +11.6% from the issuance price $13.29.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BXMT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$11.63worst · -12.5%$14.83best · +11.6%
  • now $13.29 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.26 (-0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.66–$13.87
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.63–$14.83
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−71.0%−71.0%+15.5%
2009-02-06−69.2%−70.3%+0.0%
2009-02-05−67.8%−67.8%+8.2%
3 best
2009-04-09+116.7%−2.9%+116.7%
2011-03-30+110.1%−4.5%+110.1%
2011-03-31+109.7%+0.0%+120.0%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+1.4%
n=20
Feb
55%
+3.9%
n=20
Mar
65%
−2.6%
n=20
Apr
50%
+12.0%
n=20
May
45%
−1.3%
n=20
Jun
45%
−4.1%
n=20
Jul
55%
+0.3%
n=20
Aug
55%
+3.0%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.7%
n=20
Oct
55%
−3.8%
n=20
Nov
65%
−2.4%
n=20
Dec
65%
+2.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$20$132026-08-04: 1 insider purchase, $143K — NASSAU HENRY N2026-06-30: 1 insider sale, $29K — Pena Fernando Austin2026-06-25: 1 insider sale, $42K — Pena Fernando Austin2026-06-17: 1 insider sale, $25K — URBASZEK MARCIN2026-03-31: 1 insider sale, $31K — Pena Fernando Austin2026-03-17: 1 insider sale, $9K — URBASZEK MARCIN2025-12-31: 1 insider sale, $60K — Pena Fernando Austin2025-12-17: 2 insider sales, $29K — Marone Anthony F. JR, URBASZEK MARCIN2025-12-01: 1 insider sale, $10K — Marone Anthony F. JR2025-09-17: 3 insider sales, $117K — Keenan Katharine A, Marone Anthony F. JR, URBASZEK MARCIN2025-09-02: 2 insider sales, $54K — Keenan Katharine A, Marone Anthony F. JR2025-09: 5 open-market sales, $171K2025-12: 4 open-market sales, $99K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $40K2026-06: 3 open-market sales, $95K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $143K↑ buys↓ salesdirector NASSAU HENRY N — Purchase on 2026-08-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Pena Fernando Austin — Sale on 2026-06-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Pena Fernando Austin — Sale on 2026-06-25, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer URBASZEK MARCIN — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Pena Fernando Austin — Sale on 2026-03-31, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer URBASZEK MARCIN — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Pena Fernando Austin — Sale on 2025-12-31, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Marone Anthony F. JR — Sale on 2025-12-17, filed same dayofficer URBASZEK MARCIN — Sale on 2025-12-17, filed same dayofficer Marone Anthony F. JR — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Keenan Katharine A — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Marone Anthony F. JR — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer URBASZEK MARCIN — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Keenan Katharine A — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Marone Anthony F. JR — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04NASSAU HENRY NdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $14.34$143K+4.8% of holding−2.0%not yet — horizon still open218,523Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-30Pena Fernando AustindirectorSale1,670 @ $17.07$29K−2.2% of holding−11.0%not yet — horizon still open72,899Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-25Pena Fernando AustindirectorSale2,398 @ $17.48$42K−3.1% of holding−2.2%not yet — horizon still open74,569Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-17URBASZEK MARCINofficerSale1,352 @ $18.35$25K−5.2% of holding−4.1%not yet — horizon still open24,824Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-31Pena Fernando AustindirectorSale1,666 @ $18.88$31K−2.1% of holding−11.3%not yet — horizon still open76,967Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17URBASZEK MARCINofficerSale452 @ $19.13$9K−1.7% of holding+1.2%−39.8%26,176Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-31Pena Fernando AustindirectorSale3,131 @ $19.24$60K−3.8% of holding+0.3%−14.6%78,633Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-17Marone Anthony F. JRofficerSale1,012 @ $20.31$21K−1.3% of holding−3.6%−18.7%75,500Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-17URBASZEK MARCINofficerSale400 @ $20.29$8K−1.5% of holding−3.6%−18.7%26,628Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-01Marone Anthony F. JRofficerSale506 @ $19.38$10K−0.8% of holding+0.2%−14.3%62,064Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-17Keenan Katharine AdirectorSale4,593 @ $19.49$90K−2.0% of holding−6.0%+2.5%230,006Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-17Marone Anthony F. JRofficerSale1,006 @ $19.48$20K−1.6% of holding−6.0%+2.5%62,570Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-17URBASZEK MARCINofficerSale398 @ $19.50$8K−3.3% of holding−6.0%+2.5%11,691Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-02Keenan Katharine AdirectorSale2,315 @ $19.25$45K−1.0% of holding−6.2%−2.1%234,599Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-02Marone Anthony F. JRofficerSale506 @ $19.27$10K−0.8% of holding−6.2%−2.1%63,576Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-17Keenan Katharine AdirectorSale6,931 @ $19.13$133K−2.8% of holding−1.7%−2.8%236,914Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-17Marone Anthony F. JRofficerSale1,517 @ $19.20$29K−2.3% of holding−1.7%−2.8%64,082Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-17URBASZEK MARCINofficerSale800 @ $19.14$15K−6.2% of holding−1.7%−2.8%12,089Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-30Keenan Katharine AdirectorSale2,327 @ $18.91$44K−0.9% of holding+1.1%−8.3%243,845Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-30Marone Anthony F. JRofficerSale508 @ $18.92$10K−0.8% of holding+1.1%−8.3%65,599Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-06NASSAU HENRY NdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $18.90$189K+5.8% of holding−5.4%−17.1%182,946Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17Keenan Katharine AdirectorSale2,315 @ $20.70$48K−0.9% of holding−4.9%−19.6%246,172Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17Marone Anthony F. JRofficerSale506 @ $20.65$10K−0.8% of holding−4.9%−19.6%66,107Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Keenan Katharine AdirectorSale2,323 @ $20.70$48K−0.9% of holding+4.5%−9.8%248,487Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Marone Anthony F. JRofficerSale508 @ $20.70$11K−0.8% of holding+4.5%−9.8%66,613Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-17Marone Anthony F. JRofficerSale514 @ $18.80$10K−0.8% of holding+0.4%+10.0%67,121Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-09Marone Anthony F. JRofficerSale482 @ $19.07$9K−0.9% of holding−2.9%+8.2%55,635Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

52 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-15SAGALYN LYNNE BdirectorAward / grant3,939166,639Form 4
2026-07-15NASSAU HENRY NdirectorAward / grant3,044208,523Form 4
2026-07-15Cotton Leonard WdirectorAward / grant1,83198,827Form 4
2026-07-15Lynch NnennadirectorAward / grant1,14742,952Form 4
2026-07-15Hsu Chen YidirectorAward / grant18111,031Form 4
2026-06-26Lynch NnennadirectorAward / grant6,59741,805Form 4
2026-06-26Nash Michael B.directorAward / grant6,597558,272Form 4
2026-06-26Perez-Alvarado GildadirectorAward / grant6,59726,504Form 4
2026-06-26SAGALYN LYNNE BdirectorAward / grant6,597162,700Form 4
2026-06-26Cotton Leonard WdirectorAward / grant6,59796,890Form 4
2026-06-26Hsu Chen YidirectorAward / grant6,59710,850Form 4
2026-06-26NASSAU HENRY NdirectorAward / grant6,597205,479Form 4
2026-04-15SAGALYN LYNNE BdirectorAward / grant3,275156,103Form 4
2026-04-15NASSAU HENRY NdirectorAward / grant2,531198,882Form 4
2026-04-15Cotton Leonard WdirectorAward / grant1,52390,293Form 4
2026-04-15Lynch NnennadirectorAward / grant80335,208Form 4
2026-01-15SAGALYN LYNNE BdirectorAward / grant3,300152,828Form 4
2026-01-15NASSAU HENRY NdirectorAward / grant2,550196,351Form 4
2026-01-15Cotton Leonard WdirectorAward / grant1,53488,681Form 4
2026-01-15Lynch NnennadirectorAward / grant80934,405Form 4
2025-12-25SAGALYN LYNNE BdirectorGift10,777149,528Form 4
2025-12-15Marone Anthony F. JRofficerAward / grant14,44876,512Form 4
2025-12-15Johnson Timothy StevendirectorAward / grant54,799527,900Form 4
2025-12-15Pena Fernando AustindirectorAward / grant36,84381,764Form 4
2025-12-15URBASZEK MARCINofficerAward / grant15,33727,028Form 4
2025-10-22Hsu Chen YidirectorAward / grant4,2534,253Form 4
2025-10-15SAGALYN LYNNE BdirectorAward / grant3,391160,305Form 4
2025-10-15NASSAU HENRY NdirectorAward / grant2,620193,801Form 4
2025-10-15Cotton Leonard WdirectorAward / grant1,57687,056Form 4
2025-10-15Lynch NnennadirectorAward / grant83133,596Form 4
2025-07-15SAGALYN LYNNE BdirectorAward / grant3,115156,914Form 4
2025-07-15NASSAU HENRY NdirectorAward / grant2,407191,181Form 4
2025-07-15Cotton Leonard WdirectorAward / grant1,44885,388Form 4
2025-07-15Lynch NnennadirectorAward / grant76432,765Form 4
2025-06-27SAGALYN LYNNE BdirectorAward / grant5,828153,799Form 4
2025-06-27Nash Michael B.directorAward / grant5,828551,675Form 4
2025-06-27Lynch NnennadirectorAward / grant5,82832,001Form 4
2025-06-27Cotton Leonard WdirectorAward / grant5,82883,858Form 4
2025-06-27Perez-Alvarado GildadirectorAward / grant5,82819,907Form 4
2025-06-27NASSAU HENRY NdirectorAward / grant5,828188,774Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.