Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.50 · now $19.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BXDC has typically landed between $17.67 and $20.70 — a range of −9.4% to +6.2% from the issuance price $19.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
65 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-05-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BXDC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $19.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.99 (-2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.51–$19.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.67–$20.7
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-18 | −9.6% | −11.3% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-16 | −9.5% | −9.5% | +2.0% |
| 2026-08-14 | −7.6% | −7.6% | +0.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-15 | +8.0% | +0.0% | +11.1% |
| 2026-05-14 | +7.9% | +0.0% | +12.8% |
| 2026-07-16 | +6.1% | −0.7% | +8.0% |
65 overlapping windows · 2026-05-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Blackstone Treasury Holdings III L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 9,111,795 @ $20.00 | $182.2M | +182235900.0% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,111,800 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Blackstone Treasury Holdings III L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 375,000 @ $20.00 | $7.5M | ownership Δ n/a | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 375,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Keenan Katharine A | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $20.00 | $500K | ownership Δ n/a | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Pell Nicholas L. | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $20.00 | $500K | ownership Δ n/a | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Marone Anthony F. JR | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $20.00 | $200K | ownership Δ n/a | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Morefield Diane M | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $20.00 | $100K | +66.7% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Forman Michael John | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $20.00 | $100K | ownership Δ n/a | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Diverio Michael A. | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $20.00 | $100K | ownership Δ n/a | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Mouat Rory | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $20.00 | $10K | ownership Δ n/a | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
8 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Bartlett Thomas A | director | Award / grant | 9,699 | 17,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Morefield Diane M | director | Award / grant | 9,699 | 22,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Capossela Christopher C | director | Award / grant | 9,699 | 17,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Myers Mark Laurence | director | Award / grant | 9,699 | 17,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Morefield Diane M | director | Award / grant | 7,500 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Bartlett Thomas A | director | Award / grant | 7,500 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Capossela Christopher C | director | Award / grant | 7,500 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Myers Mark Laurence | director | Award / grant | 7,500 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.