Issued 2026-09-16 at $123.45 · now $123.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BX has typically landed between $103.34 and $146.28 — a range of −16.3% to +18.5% from the issuance price $123.45.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($123.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $123.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $123.45 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $124.68 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $114.81–$134.55
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $103.34–$146.28
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −58.4% | −58.4% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −52.5% | −52.5% | +1.2% |
| 2008-09-29 | −52.5% | −55.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-02-23 | +110.6% | −0.6% | +110.6% |
| 2009-02-26 | +99.4% | +0.0% | +111.9% |
| 2009-02-20 | +97.5% | −1.8% | +97.5% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$156.1B
market cap
$4.50
EPS (TTM)
28.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-22
next earnings
Revenue$13.8B
'20'25
Net income$3.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr21.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr34.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.54
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$43.93
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$73.72
- Analyst target · range $127.00–$184.00$137.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$123.45
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
72%
+4.6%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.3%
n=19
Mar
63%
+2.6%
n=19
Apr
58%
+4.0%
n=19
May
63%
+1.5%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.2%
n=19
Jul
84%
+7.8%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.7%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.3%
n=18
Nov
67%
+2.4%
n=18
Dec
67%
+0.7%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Finley John G | officer | Sale | 25,198 @ $147.36 | $3.7M | −4.7% of holding | −13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 516,017 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Finley John G | officer | Sale | 19,802 @ $146.80 | $2.9M | −3.5% of holding | −13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 541,215 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Payne David | officer | Sale | 9,500 @ $145.23 | $1.4M | −12.8% of holding | −13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,448 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 245 @ $137.10 | $34K | +0.6% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,189 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 126 @ $137.32 | $17K | +0.3% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,944 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 84 @ $137.32 | $12K | +0.9% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,031 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Sawhney Vikrant | officer | Sale | 18,408 @ $135.29 | $2.5M | −2.0% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 881,261 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Sawhney Vikrant | officer | Sale | 11,592 @ $135.96 | $1.6M | −1.3% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 869,669 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 229 @ $123.19 | $28K | +0.6% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,818 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 126 @ $122.77 | $15K | +0.3% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,588 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 84 @ $122.77 | $10K | +0.9% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,947 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Sawhney Vikrant | officer | Sale | 16,965 @ $125.55 | $2.1M | −1.8% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 912,718 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-01 | Sawhney Vikrant | officer | Sale | 13,049 @ $126.11 | $1.6M | −1.4% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 899,669 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 276 @ $130.30 | $36K | +0.7% of holding | −10.5% | −5.0% | 39,502 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 149 @ $131.11 | $20K | +0.4% of holding | −10.5% | −5.0% | 39,226 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 100 @ $131.11 | $13K | +1.1% of holding | −10.5% | −5.0% | 8,863 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 207 @ $148.92 | $31K | +0.5% of holding | +7.6% | −24.9% | 39,077 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 117 @ $143.40 | $17K | +0.3% of holding | +7.6% | −24.9% | 38,870 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 78 @ $143.40 | $11K | +0.9% of holding | +7.6% | −24.9% | 8,763 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | BREYER JAMES | director | Purchase | 10,200 @ $144.21 | $1.5M | +17.4% of holding | +4.6% | −21.5% | 68,906 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | BREYER JAMES | director | Purchase | 3,700 @ $142.89 | $529K | +6.7% of holding | +4.6% | −21.5% | 58,706 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | BREYER JAMES | director | Purchase | 13,170 @ $151.23 | $2.0M | +31.5% of holding | −0.2% | −18.8% | 55,006 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | Baratta Joseph | director | Sale | 109,202 @ $175.67 | $19.2M | −13.5% of holding | −14.9% | −34.1% | 699,555 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | Baratta Joseph | director | Sale | 3,798 @ $176.40 | $670K | −0.5% of holding | −14.9% | −34.1% | 695,757 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Finley John G | officer | Sale | 21,500 @ $171.46 | $3.7M | −4.5% of holding | −8.3% | −40.2% | 453,836 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Sawhney Vikrant | officer | Sale | 24,362 @ $172.99 | $4.2M | −3.1% of holding | +2.7% | −30.4% | 763,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Sawhney Vikrant | officer | Sale | 18,455 @ $174.04 | $3.2M | −2.4% of holding | +2.7% | −30.4% | 745,281 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Sawhney Vikrant | officer | Sale | 8,033 @ $174.69 | $1.4M | −1.1% of holding | +2.7% | −30.4% | 737,248 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 143 @ $170.61 | $24K | +0.4% of holding | +2.2% | −29.2% | 38,753 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 79 @ $169.72 | $13K | +0.2% of holding | +2.2% | −29.2% | 38,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 52 @ $169.72 | $9K | +0.6% of holding | +2.2% | −29.2% | 8,685 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Payne David | officer | Sale | 9,400 @ $169.97 | $1.6M | −14.7% of holding | +0.8% | −31.8% | 54,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Baratta Joseph | director | Sale | 73,060 @ $167.19 | $12.2M | −8.0% of holding | −2.0% | −29.0% | 835,697 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Baratta Joseph | director | Sale | 26,940 @ $167.83 | $4.5M | −3.2% of holding | −2.0% | −29.0% | 808,757 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Finley John G | officer | Sale | 24,758 @ $138.46 | $3.4M | −4.9% of holding | −6.0% | −15.2% | 475,578 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Finley John G | officer | Sale | 242 @ $139.04 | $34K | −0.1% of holding | −6.0% | −15.2% | 475,336 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 150 @ $135.86 | $20K | +0.4% of holding | −3.8% | −14.3% | 36,979 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 87 @ $137.14 | $12K | +0.2% of holding | −3.8% | −14.3% | 37,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 58 @ $137.14 | $8K | +0.7% of holding | −3.8% | −14.3% | 8,633 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 190 @ $164.86 | $31K | +0.5% of holding | −3.0% | −3.6% | 36,829 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 111 @ $164.82 | $18K | +0.3% of holding | −3.0% | −3.6% | 36,639 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Porat Ruth | director | Purchase | 74 @ $164.82 | $12K | +0.9% of holding | −3.0% | −3.6% | 8,575 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
55 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Parrett William G | director | Other acquisition | 1,500 | 30,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Parrett William G | director | Other acquisition | 1,500 | 66,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Parrett William G | director | Other acquisition | 1,500 | 66,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Parrett William G | director | Other acquisition | 1,500 | 30,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sawhney Vikrant | officer | Award / grant | 129,077 | 929,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | GRAY JONATHAN | director | Award / grant | 302,662 | 3,678,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Payne David | officer | Award / grant | 17,804 | 73,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Parrett William G | director | Award / grant | 2,048 | 31,529 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Porat Ruth | director | Award / grant | 1,961 | 41,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | LAZARUS ROCHELLE B | director | Award / grant | 1,961 | 59,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Brown Reginald J | director | Award / grant | 1,961 | 21,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | BREYER JAMES | director | Award / grant | 1,961 | 70,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Finley John G | officer | Award / grant | 152,222 | 561,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Baratta Joseph | director | Award / grant | 124,626 | 871,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Chae Michael | officer | Award / grant | 152,667 | 1,168,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Finley John G | officer | Gift | 7,500 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Finley John G | officer | Gift | 7,500 | 408,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Baratta Joseph | director | Gift | 41,290 | 4,128,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Chae Michael | officer | Award / grant | 41,174 | 1,015,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | GRAY JONATHAN | director | Award / grant | 51,216 | 3,375,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Baratta Joseph | director | Award / grant | 51,216 | 746,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Payne David | officer | Award / grant | 1,656 | 56,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Finley John G | officer | Award / grant | 14,959 | 468,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Sawhney Vikrant | officer | Award / grant | 29,458 | 766,706 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | Chae Michael | officer | Gift | 63,964 | 5,257,112 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | Baratta Joseph | director | Gift | 60,000 | 4,128,950 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Parrett William G | director | Gift | 2,244 | 29,481 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Parrett William G | director | Gift | 2,244 | 65,071 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-09 | Parrett William G | director | Award / grant | 1,529 | 31,725 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Brown Reginald J | director | Award / grant | 1,150 | 19,501 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-09 | Finley John G | officer | Gift | 10,000 | 22,523 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-03 | Chae Michael | officer | Gift | 29,410 | 5,321,076 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-03 | Baratta Joseph | director | Gift | 60,000 | 4,188,950 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-14 | BREYER JAMES | director | Award / grant | 1,295 | 41,836 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-09 | LAZARUS ROCHELLE B | director | Award / grant | 1,334 | 57,746 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | Porat Ruth | director | Award / grant | 1,464 | 38,531 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-30 | Finley John G | officer | Gift | 72,000 | 72,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Payne David | officer | Award / grant | 12,098 | 63,888 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Chae Michael | officer | Award / grant | 100,811 | 974,494 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Baratta Joseph | director | Award / grant | 67,207 | 908,757 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $15–50K |
| Angus King | Senate | sale | 2026-03-24 | 2026-02-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | purchase | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-11 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-12-11 | 2025-11-13 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.