BWXT · TickerCove

BWXTBWX Technologies, Inc.Industrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $145.66 · now $145.66 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BWXT has typically landed between $128.56 and $171.50 — a range of −11.7% to +17.7% from the issuance price $145.66.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,050 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-07-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($145.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$145.66 · 0% of range

$145.66 low$238.1 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.8%

typical move · IQR 10.7%

−11.7%worst (p90)+17.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BWXT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $145.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $145.66 (+0.0%)
typical $148.34 (+1.8%)
middle 50% $140.52–$156.15
90% range $128.56–$171.5

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,050 windows spanning 2010-07-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-19	−39.2%	−39.6%	+0.9%
2020-02-18	−39.2%	−39.2%	+1.6%
2020-02-20	−39.0%	−40.1%	+0.0%
3 best
2025-05-21	+32.3%	+0.0%	+32.5%
2025-05-22	+32.2%	+0.0%	+32.2%
2025-07-10	+31.3%	+0.0%	+33.4%

4,050 overlapping windows · 2010-07-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

75%

+3.1%

n=16

Feb

75%

+5.8%

n=16

Mar

69%

+1.1%

n=16

Apr

63%

+1.4%

n=16

May

38%

−0.2%

n=16

Jun

56%

+2.0%

n=16

Jul

63%

+0.4%

n=16

Aug

59%

+0.6%

n=17

Sep

47%

−0.3%

n=17

Oct

75%

+4.6%

n=16

Nov

75%

−0.1%

n=16

Dec

63%

−0.3%

n=16

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	4,730 @ $172.18	$814K	−2.4% of holding	−11.9%	not yet — horizon still open	195,354	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	2,600 @ $174.22	$453K	−1.3% of holding	−11.9%	not yet — horizon still open	192,491	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	2,407 @ $171.21	$412K	−1.2% of holding	−11.9%	not yet — horizon still open	200,084	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	263 @ $173.00	$45K	−0.1% of holding	−11.9%	not yet — horizon still open	195,091	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	3,710 @ $203.78	$756K	−1.7% of holding	−5.7%	not yet — horizon still open	208,781	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	3,570 @ $204.65	$731K	−1.7% of holding	−5.7%	not yet — horizon still open	205,211	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	1,402 @ $205.78	$289K	−0.7% of holding	−5.7%	not yet — horizon still open	203,809	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	1,318 @ $207.13	$273K	−0.6% of holding	−5.7%	not yet — horizon still open	202,491	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-11	Fitzgerald Michael Thomas	officer	Sale	2,417 @ $209.25	$506K	−26.0% of holding	−11.2%	not yet — horizon still open	6,884	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02	Gorman Kevin James	officer	Sale	1,344 @ $214.71	$289K	−92.2% of holding	−0.4%	−41.8%	114	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-25	Burbach Gerhard F	director	Sale	1,983 @ $208.61	$414K	−100.0% of holding	+5.3%	−37.4%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	2,498 @ $205.03	$512K	−1.4% of holding	+5.9%	−26.3%	177,594	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	2,192 @ $203.23	$445K	−1.2% of holding	+5.9%	−26.3%	181,996	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	1,904 @ $204.05	$389K	−1.0% of holding	+5.9%	−26.3%	180,092	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	1,762 @ $202.24	$356K	−0.9% of holding	+5.9%	−26.3%	184,188	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	1,190 @ $201.17	$239K	−0.6% of holding	+5.9%	−26.3%	185,950	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	454 @ $199.71	$91K	−0.2% of holding	+5.9%	−26.3%	187,140	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	2,863 @ $197.69	$566K	−1.5% of holding	−10.7%	−4.4%	192,060	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	2,414 @ $198.67	$480K	−1.3% of holding	−10.7%	−4.4%	189,646	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	2,052 @ $199.37	$409K	−1.1% of holding	−10.7%	−4.4%	187,594	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	1,962 @ $196.74	$386K	−1.0% of holding	−10.7%	−4.4%	194,923	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	709 @ $195.08	$138K	−0.4% of holding	−10.7%	−4.4%	196,885	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-11	Whitford Ronald Owen Jr	officer	Sale	2,092 @ $177.43	$371K	−17.1% of holding	−9.0%	+3.2%	10,149	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-11	Melvin Leland D	director	Sale	600 @ $178.26	$107K	−9.7% of holding	−9.0%	+3.2%	5,579	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-06	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	24,468 @ $178.99	$4.4M	−11.0% of holding	−11.1%	−3.1%	198,126	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-06	Meguid Omar Fathi	officer	Sale	2,261 @ $179.84	$407K	−48.9% of holding	−11.1%	−3.1%	2,361	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-06	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	532 @ $179.69	$96K	−0.3% of holding	−11.1%	−3.1%	197,594	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05	DUFFY ROBERT L	officer	Sale	6,000 @ $104.03	$624K	−65.2% of holding	−0.3%	+46.6%	3,206	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-27	Whitford Ronald Owen Jr	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $104.92	$210K	−16.8% of holding	+2.1%	+51.8%	9,904	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-26	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	29,882 @ $107.13	$3.2M	−11.3% of holding	−0.3%	+46.9%	233,961	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26	Geveden Rex D	director	Sale	15,743 @ $107.91	$1.7M	−6.7% of holding	−0.3%	+46.9%	218,218	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

269 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-04	PIASECKI NICOLE WEYERHAEUSER	director	Award / grant	8	61	Form 4
2026-09-04	Burbach Gerhard F	director	Award / grant	23	801	Form 4
2026-09-04	JASKA JAMES M	director	Award / grant	28	1,139	Form 4
2026-09-04	Richardson John M	director	Award / grant	16	354	Form 4
2026-09-04	JABLONSKY DANIEL L	director	Award / grant	2	3	Form 4
2026-09-04	Krieg Kenneth J	director	Award / grant	36	1,487	Form 4
2026-09-04	Melvin Leland D	director	Award / grant	15	244	Form 4
2026-09-04	Bertsch Jan	director	Award / grant	42	2,284	Form 4
2026-09-01	Miller Joseph Kirwan	officer	Withheld for tax	1,523	7,098	Form 4
2026-09-01	Maddux Suzanne	officer	Award / grant	1,257	1,257	Form 4
2026-09-01	Miller Joseph Kirwan	officer	Option exercise	3,379	0	Form 4
2026-09-01	Miller Joseph Kirwan	officer	Option exercise	3,379	8,621	Form 4
2026-09-01	Maddux Suzanne	officer	Award / grant	5,727	5,727	Form 4
2026-07-01	Cajade Gonzalo Raul	officer	Withheld for tax	124	378	Form 4
2026-07-01	Miller Joseph Kirwan	officer	Withheld for tax	106	5,242	Form 4
2026-07-01	Cajade Gonzalo Raul	officer	Option exercise	332	502	Form 4
2026-07-01	Miller Joseph Kirwan	officer	Option exercise	237	474	Form 4
2026-07-01	Cajade Gonzalo Raul	officer	Option exercise	332	664	Form 4
2026-07-01	Miller Joseph Kirwan	officer	Option exercise	237	5,348	Form 4
2026-06-05	Melvin Leland D	director	Award / grant	13	228	Form 4
2026-06-05	JASKA JAMES M	director	Award / grant	24	1,110	Form 4
2026-06-05	JABLONSKY DANIEL L	director	Award / grant	1	1	Form 4
2026-06-05	Burbach Gerhard F	director	Award / grant	20	778	Form 4
2026-06-05	Bertsch Jan	director	Award / grant	35	2,242	Form 4
2026-06-05	PIASECKI NICOLE WEYERHAEUSER	director	Award / grant	7	53	Form 4
2026-06-05	Richardson John M	director	Award / grant	14	338	Form 4
2026-06-05	Krieg Kenneth J	director	Award / grant	31	1,451	Form 4
2026-05-11	Fitzgerald Michael Thomas	officer	Option exercise	1,520	8,404	Form 4
2026-05-11	Fitzgerald Michael Thomas	officer	Option exercise	897	9,301	Form 4
2026-05-11	Fitzgerald Michael Thomas	officer	Option exercise	1,520	760	Form 4
2026-05-11	Fitzgerald Michael Thomas	officer	Option exercise	897	1,794	Form 4
2026-05-06	Fitzgerald Michael Thomas	officer	Withheld for tax	1,618	6,884	Form 4
2026-05-06	Fitzgerald Michael Thomas	officer	Option exercise	2,826	8,502	Form 4
2026-05-06	Fitzgerald Michael Thomas	officer	Option exercise	2,826	0	Form 4
2026-04-30	Krieg Kenneth J	director	Option exercise	762	2,227	Form 4
2026-04-30	JABLONSKY DANIEL L	director	Award / grant	762	762	Form 4
2026-04-30	JASKA JAMES M	director	Award / grant	762	762	Form 4
2026-04-30	PIASECKI NICOLE WEYERHAEUSER	director	Award / grant	762	762	Form 4
2026-04-30	Melvin Leland D	director	Award / grant	762	762	Form 4
2026-04-30	Krieg Kenneth J	director	Award / grant	762	762	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i