Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.13 · now $16.13 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BWMX has typically landed between $12.91 and $19.72 — a range of −20.0% to +22.3% from the issuance price $16.13.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,915 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-01-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.13) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BWMX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.13 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.13 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.99 (-0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.6–$17.38
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.91–$19.72
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-05-31 | −38.2% | −38.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −36.4% | −36.4% | +4.7% |
| 2022-01-20 | −35.1% | −42.0% | +1.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-07-30 | +122.9% | +0.0% | +122.9% |
| 2020-07-29 | +112.9% | +0.0% | +122.3% |
| 2020-07-28 | +101.3% | −9.5% | +101.3% |
1,915 overlapping windows · 2019-01-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Campos Luis | director | Purchase | 21,829 @ $17.00 | $371K | +0.1% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,278,497 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Campos Luis | director | Purchase | 3,186 @ $17.00 | $54K | +0.0% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,256,668 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Campos Luis | director | Purchase | 3,917 @ $16.93 | $66K | +0.0% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,253,482 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Campos Luis | director | Purchase | 46,830 @ $16.41 | $768K | +0.2% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,249,565 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | SALAZAR FERNANDO | officer | Purchase | 159 @ $16.96 | $3K | ownership Δ n/a | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 159 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | CHEVALLIER ANDRES CAMPOS | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $16.81 | $168K | +25.0% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.