Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.04 · now $32.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BWIN has typically landed between $24.86 and $39.18 — a range of −22.4% to +22.3% from the issuance price $32.04.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
567 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-05-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BWIN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $32.04 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $32.55 (+1.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $29.33–$35.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $24.86–$39.18
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 567 windows spanning 2024-05-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-14 | −37.9% | −37.9% | +0.2% |
| 2026-01-22 | −37.1% | −37.3% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-20 | −37.1% | −37.2% | +0.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-17 | +55.5% | +0.0% | +63.9% |
| 2026-06-15 | +51.4% | −4.6% | +56.4% |
| 2026-06-02 | +45.8% | −11.0% | +45.8% |
567 overlapping windows · 2024-05-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−1.6%
n=2
Feb
100%
+3.2%
n=2
Mar
50%
+1.5%
n=2
Apr
50%
−1.7%
n=2
May
0%
−11.0%
n=2
Jun
100%
+17.8%
n=3
Jul
67%
+4.6%
n=3
Aug
67%
+1.5%
n=3
Sep
67%
−0.3%
n=3
Oct
0%
−14.4%
n=2
Nov
100%
+17.4%
n=2
Dec
0%
−18.3%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Cohen Seth Bala | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $20.01 | $300K | −51.7% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Sale | 98,278 @ $21.20 | $2.1M | −100.0% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Sale | 31,740 @ $21.18 | $672K | −100.0% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Sale | 53,722 @ $21.19 | $1.1M | −35.3% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,278 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Sale | 18,260 @ $21.20 | $387K | −36.5% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,740 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Sale | 90,556 @ $21.25 | $1.9M | −100.0% of holding | +4.0% | +31.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Sale | 29,431 @ $21.25 | $625K | −100.0% of holding | +4.0% | +31.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Sparks Paul Eugene | director | Purchase | 15,200 @ $22.10 | $336K | +1.5% of holding | +0.0% | +23.2% | 996,706 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Sparks Paul Eugene | director | Purchase | 29,000 @ $22.96 | $666K | +3.0% of holding | −0.4% | +20.7% | 981,506 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Roche James Morgan | officer | Sale | 73,977 @ $23.98 | $1.8M | −60.6% of holding | +8.6% | −36.3% | 48,136 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-15 | Roche James Morgan | officer | Sale | 6,023 @ $24.70 | $149K | −12.5% of holding | +8.6% | −36.3% | 42,113 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-12 | Roche James Morgan | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $24.20 | $2.4M | −45.0% of holding | +8.9% | −33.1% | 122,113 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Roche James Morgan | officer | Sale | 60,000 @ $23.34 | $1.4M | −21.3% of holding | +8.4% | −32.2% | 222,113 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Roche James Morgan | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $25.08 | $376K | −26.3% of holding | −1.6% | −30.8% | 42,113 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Cohen Seth Bala | officer | Sale | 2,775 @ $34.00 | $94K | −21.0% of holding | −11.0% | −57.2% | 10,465 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Hale Bradford | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $28.72 | $287K | +7.4% of holding | +2.7% | −46.2% | 144,659 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-13 | Roche James Morgan | officer | Sale | 26,679 @ $40.07 | $1.1M | −38.8% of holding | +4.2% | −53.3% | 42,113 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-12 | Baldwin Trevor | director | Sale | 92,820 @ $39.79 | $3.7M | −64.2% of holding | +1.2% | −55.6% | 51,856 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Baldwin Trevor | director | Sale | 24,180 @ $39.99 | $967K | −46.6% of holding | +1.2% | −55.6% | 27,676 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Roche James Morgan | officer | Sale | 10,894 @ $40.03 | $436K | −13.7% of holding | +1.2% | −55.6% | 68,792 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Baldwin Trevor | director | Sale | 58,000 @ $38.48 | $2.2M | −28.6% of holding | +0.0% | −58.7% | 144,676 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Baldwin Lowry | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $38.98 | $1.9M | −100.0% of holding | +1.3% | −56.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Roche James Morgan | officer | Sale | 7,142 @ $40.08 | $286K | −8.2% of holding | −1.6% | −48.3% | 79,686 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Cohen Seth Bala | officer | Sale | 4,496 @ $39.58 | $178K | −25.3% of holding | −5.1% | −49.7% | 13,240 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Baldwin Lowry | director | Sale | 31,250 @ $38.32 | $1.2M | −100.0% of holding | +7.4% | −43.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Roche James Morgan | officer | Sale | 3,572 @ $40.04 | $143K | −4.0% of holding | −3.9% | −43.9% | 86,828 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Roche James Morgan | officer | Sale | 14,222 @ $40.01 | $569K | −13.6% of holding | −4.8% | −44.6% | 90,400 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Galbraith Daniel | officer | Sale | 39,207 @ $40.00 | $1.6M | −91.1% of holding | −0.6% | −45.8% | 3,849 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Roche James Morgan | officer | Sale | 13,340 @ $40.02 | $534K | −11.3% of holding | −0.6% | −45.8% | 104,622 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Baldwin Lowry | director | Sale | 20,304 @ $38.79 | $788K | −65.0% of holding | −2.6% | −50.3% | 10,946 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Baldwin Lowry | director | Sale | 10,946 @ $39.38 | $431K | −100.0% of holding | −2.6% | −50.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Roche James Morgan | officer | Sale | 21,035 @ $40.05 | $842K | −15.1% of holding | −7.3% | −53.8% | 117,962 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Baldwin Trevor | director | Sale | 15,902 @ $39.33 | $625K | −54.5% of holding | +12.6% | −42.9% | 13,302 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-13 | Baldwin Trevor | director | Sale | 39,219 @ $39.22 | $1.5M | −48.6% of holding | +12.3% | −39.8% | 41,444 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Baldwin Trevor | director | Sale | 12,240 @ $40.03 | $490K | −29.5% of holding | +12.3% | −39.8% | 29,204 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Baldwin Trevor | director | Sale | 65,747 @ $40.58 | $2.7M | −44.0% of holding | +10.3% | −40.7% | 83,656 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Baldwin Trevor | director | Sale | 2,993 @ $41.13 | $123K | −3.6% of holding | +10.3% | −40.7% | 80,663 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Baldwin Lowry | director | Sale | 43,341 @ $38.56 | $1.7M | −48.1% of holding | +15.7% | −37.6% | 46,758 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Baldwin Lowry | director | Sale | 36,436 @ $39.82 | $1.5M | −77.9% of holding | +15.7% | −37.6% | 10,322 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Baldwin Lowry | director | Sale | 10,322 @ $40.64 | $419K | −100.0% of holding | +15.7% | −37.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Baldwin Lowry | director | Sale | 18,503 @ $41.05 | $760K | −17.0% of holding | +15.7% | −29.6% | 90,099 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Baldwin Lowry | director | Sale | 16,398 @ $39.29 | $644K | −13.1% of holding | +15.7% | −29.6% | 108,602 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Cohen Seth Bala | officer | Sale | 12,293 @ $41.54 | $511K | −58.2% of holding | +17.6% | −32.5% | 8,813 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Sale | 88,306 @ $43.05 | $3.8M | −100.0% of holding | −7.9% | −9.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-10 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Sale | 93,706 @ $43.54 | $4.1M | −40.3% of holding | −11.9% | −8.5% | 138,864 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Sale | 50,558 @ $44.24 | $2.2M | −36.4% of holding | −11.9% | −8.5% | 88,306 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Sale | 173,159 @ $45.03 | $7.8M | −40.9% of holding | −16.6% | −12.7% | 250,718 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Sale | 13,772 @ $46.75 | $644K | −5.6% of holding | −16.6% | −12.7% | 232,570 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Sale | 4,376 @ $46.22 | $202K | −1.7% of holding | −16.6% | −12.7% | 246,342 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
194 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Sparks Paul Eugene | director | Withheld for tax | 416 | 2,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | SULLIVAN CHRIS THOMAS | director | Award / grant | 1,207 | 85,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | KADOW JOSEPH JOHN | director | Award / grant | 1,207 | 19,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Shook Ellyn | director | Award / grant | 1,207 | 14,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Matas Barbara Ruth | director | Award / grant | 1,207 | 19,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Cohen Jay A | director | Award / grant | 1,207 | 18,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Williams Myron K | director | Award / grant | 1,207 | 14,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Parasuraman Sunita | director | Award / grant | 1,207 | 14,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Muthukrishnan Sathish | director | Award / grant | 1,207 | 10,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sparks Paul Eugene | director | Award / grant | 1,207 | 2,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Conversion | 50,000 | 396,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Conversion | 152,000 | 152,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Conversion | 152,000 | 1,198,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Krystyn Elizabeth | other | Conversion | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hale Bradford | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,837 | 174,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sparks Paul Eugene | director | Withheld for tax | 784 | 1,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Muthukrishnan Sathish | director | Award / grant | 1,221 | 9,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Lichon Corbyn N. | officer | Award / grant | 2,033 | 57,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Matas Barbara Ruth | director | Award / grant | 1,221 | 18,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Shook Ellyn | director | Award / grant | 1,221 | 13,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sparks Paul Eugene | director | Award / grant | 2,275 | 2,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Williams Myron K | director | Award / grant | 1,221 | 13,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Cohen Jay A | director | Award / grant | 1,221 | 17,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | SULLIVAN CHRIS THOMAS | director | Award / grant | 1,221 | 84,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Parasuraman Sunita | director | Award / grant | 1,221 | 13,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | KADOW JOSEPH JOHN | director | Award / grant | 1,221 | 18,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Baldwin Trevor | director | Withheld for tax | 1,297 | 105,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Baldwin Trevor | director | Withheld for tax | 670 | 104,549 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Hale Bradford | officer | Withheld for tax | 556 | 184,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Galbraith Daniel | officer | Withheld for tax | 556 | 43,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Roche James Morgan | officer | Withheld for tax | 501 | 322,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Galbraith Daniel | officer | Withheld for tax | 402 | 43,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Hale Bradford | officer | Withheld for tax | 402 | 184,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Cohen Seth Bala | officer | Withheld for tax | 283 | 29,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Cohen Seth Bala | officer | Withheld for tax | 263 | 29,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Cohen Seth Bala | officer | Withheld for tax | 254 | 29,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Lichon Corbyn N. | officer | Withheld for tax | 121 | 55,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Lichon Corbyn N. | officer | Withheld for tax | 102 | 55,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Lichon Corbyn N. | officer | Withheld for tax | 96 | 55,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Lichon Corbyn N. | officer | Withheld for tax | 70 | 55,258 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.