Issued 2026-09-16 at $66.69 · now $66.69 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BWFG has typically landed between $60.44 and $75.65 — a range of −9.4% to +13.4% from the issuance price $66.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,192 overlapping 1 month windows · 2005-05-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($66.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BWFG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $66.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $66.69 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $67.92 (+1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $64.69–$71.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $60.44–$75.65
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,192 windows spanning 2005-05-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-03-04 | −53.0% | −53.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-03 | −52.1% | −52.1% | +1.6% |
| 2020-03-05 | −51.1% | −51.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-12 | +61.9% | +0.0% | +71.4% |
| 2013-02-05 | +60.0% | +0.0% | +60.0% |
| 2010-02-22 | +58.3% | +0.0% | +58.3% |
4,192 overlapping windows · 2005-05-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−2.6%
n=18
Feb
56%
+2.8%
n=18
Mar
47%
+1.8%
n=19
Apr
53%
+4.3%
n=19
May
37%
−2.0%
n=19
Jun
63%
+1.5%
n=19
Jul
71%
+3.7%
n=17
Aug
59%
+1.9%
n=17
Sep
42%
−0.4%
n=19
Oct
50%
+1.7%
n=18
Nov
50%
+2.6%
n=18
Dec
42%
+1.7%
n=19
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 1,956 @ $66.92 | $131K | +0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 225,640 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 1,304 @ $66.92 | $87K | +1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 133,274 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Dale Eric J | director | Purchase | 530 @ $67.11 | $36K | +1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,026 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 515 @ $66.94 | $34K | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 137,253 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 510 @ $66.95 | $34K | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 142,848 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 432 @ $66.95 | $29K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 178,784 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Porto Carl M | director | Purchase | 327 @ $67.11 | $22K | +1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,397 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 283 @ $66.98 | $19K | +1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,604 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 266 @ $67.11 | $18K | +5.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Dunne Jeffrey R | director | Purchase | 261 @ $67.11 | $18K | +4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,381 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Drexler Blake S | director | Purchase | 116 @ $67.11 | $8K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 37,049 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 994 @ $65.89 | $65K | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 223,684 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 662 @ $65.90 | $44K | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 131,970 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 262 @ $65.94 | $17K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 136,738 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 259 @ $65.94 | $17K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 142,338 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 219 @ $65.96 | $14K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 178,352 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 144 @ $66.01 | $10K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,321 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 3,934 @ $66.62 | $262K | +1.8% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 222,690 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 2,621 @ $66.62 | $175K | +2.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 131,308 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 1,022 @ $66.63 | $68K | +0.8% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 136,476 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 1,012 @ $66.63 | $67K | +0.7% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 142,079 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 853 @ $66.64 | $57K | +0.5% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 178,133 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 558 @ $66.65 | $37K | +2.3% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,177 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Hildebrand Ryan Jason | officer | Sale | 2,246 @ $66.74 | $150K | −100.0% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Hildebrand Ryan Jason | officer | Sale | 1,088 @ $58.48 | $64K | −32.6% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,246 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Lampert Todd | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $53.59 | $188K | −22.1% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,366 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Dale Eric J | director | Purchase | 588 @ $53.70 | $32K | +1.4% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,496 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Porto Carl M | director | Purchase | 370 @ $53.70 | $20K | +1.7% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,070 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 323 @ $53.70 | $17K | +7.1% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,844 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Dunne Jeffrey R | director | Purchase | 315 @ $53.70 | $17K | +5.4% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,120 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Drexler Blake S | director | Purchase | 79 @ $53.70 | $4K | +0.2% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,933 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 872 @ $51.85 | $45K | +0.4% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 218,756 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 710 @ $51.86 | $37K | +0.4% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,280 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 564 @ $51.87 | $29K | +0.4% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 141,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 542 @ $51.87 | $28K | +0.4% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 135,454 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 514 @ $51.87 | $27K | +0.4% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,687 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 98 @ $52.04 | $5K | +0.4% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,619 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 81 @ $51.95 | $4K | +0.5% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,463 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 170 @ $49.92 | $8K | +0.1% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 217,884 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 810 @ $50.07 | $41K | +0.4% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 217,714 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 488 @ $50.09 | $24K | +0.4% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,173 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 200 @ $50.14 | $10K | +0.1% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 140,503 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 179 @ $50.16 | $9K | +0.1% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,912 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 149 @ $50.18 | $7K | +0.1% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 176,570 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 104 @ $50.24 | $5K | +0.4% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,521 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Chivily Christine | officer | Sale | 4,321 @ $52.16 | $225K | −26.7% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,865 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 4,085 @ $46.95 | $192K | +1.9% of holding | +7.3% | +31.2% | 216,904 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 2,460 @ $46.96 | $116K | +2.0% of holding | +7.3% | +31.2% | 127,685 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 1,259 @ $46.96 | $59K | +0.9% of holding | +7.3% | +31.2% | 140,303 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 911 @ $46.97 | $43K | +0.7% of holding | +7.3% | +31.2% | 134,733 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 754 @ $46.98 | $35K | +0.4% of holding | +7.3% | +31.2% | 176,421 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 531 @ $46.99 | $25K | +2.2% of holding | +7.3% | +31.2% | 24,417 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 4,085 @ $46.87 | $191K | +2.0% of holding | +8.8% | +31.8% | 212,819 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 2,460 @ $46.87 | $115K | +2.0% of holding | +8.8% | +31.8% | 125,225 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 1,259 @ $46.88 | $59K | +0.9% of holding | +8.8% | +31.8% | 139,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 911 @ $46.88 | $43K | +0.7% of holding | +8.8% | +31.8% | 133,822 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 754 @ $46.89 | $35K | +0.4% of holding | +8.8% | +31.8% | 175,667 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 531 @ $46.90 | $25K | +2.3% of holding | +8.8% | +31.8% | 23,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 4,085 @ $46.64 | $191K | +2.0% of holding | +12.5% | +33.2% | 208,734 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Purchase | 2,460 @ $46.64 | $115K | +2.0% of holding | +12.5% | +33.2% | 122,765 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
50 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Gruseke Christopher R | officer | Award / grant | 1,516 | 177,203 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Award / grant | 1,455 | 1,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Leitao Kevin D | director | Award / grant | 1,455 | 1,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Kotval Anahaita N. | director | Award / grant | 1,455 | 1,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Lampert Todd | director | Award / grant | 291 | 291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Fusaro Angelo G | other | Award / grant | 414 | 414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Chivily Christine | officer | Award / grant | 2,054 | 2,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Chivily Christine | officer | Award / grant | 581 | 18,171 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Sacchetti Courtney E | officer | Award / grant | 1,994 | 1,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Sacchetti Courtney E | officer | Award / grant | 245 | 4,263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Hildebrand Ryan Jason | officer | Award / grant | 3,116 | 3,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Porto Carl M | director | Award / grant | 1,455 | 1,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Dunne Jeffrey R | director | Award / grant | 1,455 | 1,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Drexler Blake S | director | Award / grant | 1,455 | 1,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Demos Darryl | director | Award / grant | 1,455 | 1,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Dale Eric J | director | Award / grant | 1,455 | 1,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Lampert Todd | director | Award / grant | 1,455 | 1,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Brunner Steven H | officer | Award / grant | 1,558 | 1,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Brunner Steven H | officer | Award / grant | 518 | 5,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | McNeill Matt | officer | Award / grant | 4,860 | 4,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | McNeill Matt | officer | Award / grant | 1,143 | 48,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Gruseke Christopher R | officer | Award / grant | 7,654 | 7,654 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Gruseke Christopher R | officer | Award / grant | 22,500 | 22,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | McNeill Matt | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | SEIDMAN LAWRENCE B | director | Award / grant | 1,800 | 1,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Sacchetti Courtney E | officer | Award / grant | 1,308 | 1,308 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Sacchetti Courtney E | officer | Award / grant | 218 | 218 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Sacchetti Courtney E | officer | Award / grant | 436 | 436 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Lampert Todd | director | Award / grant | 400 | 400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Lampert Todd | director | Award / grant | 1,800 | 1,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Fusaro Angelo G | other | Award / grant | 306 | 306 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Hildebrand Ryan Jason | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Dunne Jeffrey R | director | Award / grant | 1,800 | 1,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Leitao Kevin D | director | Award / grant | 1,800 | 1,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Brunner Steven H | officer | Award / grant | 1,493 | 1,493 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Brunner Steven H | officer | Award / grant | 249 | 249 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Brunner Steven H | officer | Award / grant | 498 | 498 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Porto Carl M | director | Award / grant | 1,800 | 1,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Kotval Anahaita N. | director | Award / grant | 1,800 | 1,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Chivily Christine | officer | Award / grant | 1,470 | 1,470 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.