Issued 2026-09-16 at $62.27 · now $62.27 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BWA has typically landed between $54.22 and $72.25 — a range of −12.9% to +16.0% from the issuance price $62.27.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($62.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BWA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $62.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $62.27 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $62.65 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $58.93–$66.37
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $54.22–$72.25
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-16 | −43.6% | −43.6% | +0.9% |
| 2020-02-18 | −42.3% | −42.3% | +2.3% |
| 2020-02-20 | −41.4% | −43.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +69.6% | +0.0% | +69.6% |
| 2009-03-11 | +57.7% | +0.0% | +57.7% |
| 2009-03-09 | +55.4% | +0.0% | +68.4% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
−0.3%
n=18
Feb
63%
+3.1%
n=19
Mar
53%
+0.8%
n=19
Apr
53%
+4.0%
n=19
May
68%
+2.5%
n=19
Jun
47%
−1.3%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.4%
n=19
Aug
37%
−2.3%
n=19
Sep
53%
−1.0%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.0%
n=18
Nov
67%
+1.5%
n=18
Dec
56%
+1.4%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Hanley Michael S | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $65.51 | $328K | −12.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,313 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CALAWAY TONIT M | director | Sale | 22,000 @ $66.26 | $1.5M | −23.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 73,831 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Kalathur Rajesh | director | Purchase | 7,407 @ $67.59 | $501K | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,407 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Kulikowski Amy B. | officer | Sale | 2,900 @ $68.60 | $199K | −23.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,725 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | CALAWAY TONIT M | director | Sale | 26,624 @ $69.44 | $1.8M | −21.7% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,831 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | CALAWAY TONIT M | director | Sale | 17,376 @ $69.97 | $1.2M | −12.4% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,455 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | McAlmont Shaun | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $69.36 | $486K | −27.9% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,070 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | McKenzie Isabelle | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $70.39 | $317K | −7.8% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,328 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Demmerle Stefan | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $70.00 | $70K | −0.5% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 202,746 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Shankar Sailaja | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $73.08 | $365K | −27.9% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,897 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Weng Volker | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $72.35 | $362K | −5.9% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,002 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Weng Volker | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $67.71 | $339K | −5.6% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 85,002 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Fadool Joseph F. | director | Sale | 29,000 @ $67.31 | $2.0M | −6.7% of holding | +11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 405,964 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Demmerle Stefan | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $65.00 | $325K | −2.4% of holding | +11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 203,746 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | McKenzie Isabelle | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $63.35 | $222K | −5.7% of holding | +17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,828 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Weng Volker | officer | Sale | 5,606 @ $61.65 | $346K | −5.9% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,002 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Wingfield Tania | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $63.24 | $316K | −12.4% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,365 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Demmerle Stefan | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $62.00 | $310K | −2.3% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 208,746 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Demmerle Stefan | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $59.26 | $1.2M | −8.6% of holding | +19.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 213,746 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Farrell Paul Arthur | officer | Sale | 12,012 @ $52.31 | $628K | −23.9% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,238 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Demmerle Stefan | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $53.03 | $133K | −1.1% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 233,746 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | CALAWAY TONIT M | director | Sale | 14,021 @ $51.46 | $722K | −6.4% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 204,913 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | CALAWAY TONIT M | director | Sale | 9,725 @ $62.61 | $609K | −4.0% of holding | −10.9% | −2.8% | 230,526 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | McKenzie Isabelle | officer | Sale | 2,458 @ $61.54 | $151K | −3.6% of holding | −10.9% | −2.8% | 66,351 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Weng Volker | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $62.36 | $312K | −4.6% of holding | −13.3% | −8.1% | 104,558 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Wingfield Tania | director | Sale | 17,867 @ $63.43 | $1.1M | −28.2% of holding | −14.8% | −8.5% | 45,429 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | CALAWAY TONIT M | director | Sale | 16,000 @ $65.08 | $1.0M | −6.2% of holding | −14.8% | −8.5% | 240,251 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | McKenzie Isabelle | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $63.26 | $221K | −4.8% of holding | −14.8% | −8.5% | 68,809 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Demmerle Stefan | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $46.00 | $230K | −2.4% of holding | −2.7% | +29.6% | 204,040 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Demmerle Stefan | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $45.52 | $683K | −6.7% of holding | −2.0% | +38.2% | 209,040 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | McKenzie Isabelle | officer | Sale | 3,200 @ $44.23 | $142K | −6.8% of holding | −2.6% | +23.9% | 43,555 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | McKenzie Isabelle | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $44.18 | $155K | −7.0% of holding | −6.7% | +13.5% | 46,755 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Weng Volker | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $43.97 | $440K | −12.8% of holding | −3.2% | +16.4% | 68,008 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Demmerle Stefan | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $44.00 | $220K | −2.2% of holding | −3.2% | +16.4% | 224,040 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | McKenzie Isabelle | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $43.45 | $130K | −5.6% of holding | −1.4% | +14.8% | 50,255 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | MICHAS ALEXIS P | director | Sale | 8,772 @ $42.31 | $371K | −10.0% of holding | −0.9% | +17.0% | 78,903 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | McKenzie Isabelle | officer | Sale | 2,690 @ $42.93 | $115K | −4.8% of holding | −0.0% | +25.5% | 53,255 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Demmerle Stefan | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $40.50 | $203K | −2.1% of holding | +3.6% | +55.1% | 229,040 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Demmerle Stefan | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $38.95 | $390K | −4.1% of holding | +8.7% | +57.7% | 234,040 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Demmerle Stefan | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $40.04 | $200K | −2.0% of holding | +8.7% | +57.7% | 244,040 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | McKenzie Isabelle | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $40.01 | $100K | −4.3% of holding | +8.7% | +57.7% | 55,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Aaron Craig | officer | Sale | 21,000 @ $37.66 | $791K | −29.7% of holding | +10.8% | +18.0% | 49,801 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Demmerle Stefan | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $38.17 | $763K | −7.4% of holding | +10.8% | +18.0% | 249,040 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Farrell Paul Arthur | officer | Sale | 11,416 @ $37.63 | $430K | −22.7% of holding | +10.8% | +18.0% | 38,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | McKenzie Isabelle | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $37.71 | $189K | −7.9% of holding | +10.8% | +18.0% | 58,445 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | McKenzie Isabelle | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $33.25 | $166K | −7.3% of holding | −1.8% | +21.7% | 63,445 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | CALAWAY TONIT M | director | Sale | 27,736 @ $32.83 | $911K | −11.4% of holding | +0.4% | +22.0% | 214,521 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Weng Volker | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $32.98 | $330K | −11.4% of holding | +0.4% | +22.0% | 78,008 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Weng Volker | officer | Sale | 15,978 @ $31.54 | $504K | −15.4% of holding | +0.8% | +23.6% | 88,008 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Weng Volker | officer | Sale | 9,764 @ $30.29 | $296K | −8.6% of holding | −5.6% | +30.8% | 103,986 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | CALAWAY TONIT M | director | Sale | 8,300 @ $30.07 | $250K | −3.3% of holding | −5.6% | +30.8% | 242,257 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Wingfield Tania | director | Sale | 24,000 @ $28.79 | $691K | −38.0% of holding | +0.9% | +39.4% | 39,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Weng Volker | officer | Sale | 7,053 @ $30.49 | $215K | −5.5% of holding | +0.6% | +36.4% | 121,002 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | CALAWAY TONIT M | director | Sale | 13,500 @ $30.16 | $407K | −4.9% of holding | +5.3% | +30.8% | 259,310 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
103 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | CALAWAY TONIT M | director | Withheld for tax | 68,854 | 139,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | CALAWAY TONIT M | director | Award / grant | 3,593 | 208,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thai-Tang Hau N | director | Award / grant | 83 | 17,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | MCWHINNEY DEBORAH D | director | Award / grant | 3,228 | 35,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | MCWHINNEY DEBORAH D | director | Award / grant | 83 | 35,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | MICHAS ALEXIS P | director | Award / grant | 3,228 | 82,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | MICHAS ALEXIS P | director | Award / grant | 83 | 82,402 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Hanley Michael S | director | Award / grant | 3,228 | 39,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Shankar Sailaja | director | Award / grant | 3,228 | 17,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Shankar Sailaja | director | Award / grant | 83 | 17,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Greenstein Sara A. | director | Award / grant | 3,228 | 21,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Greenstein Sara A. | director | Award / grant | 83 | 22,053 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Hanley Michael S | director | Award / grant | 83 | 39,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | McAlmont Shaun | director | Award / grant | 3,228 | 24,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | McAlmont Shaun | director | Award / grant | 83 | 25,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thai-Tang Hau N | director | Award / grant | 3,228 | 17,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Kulikowski Amy B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,153 | 12,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Kulikowski Amy B. | officer | Award / grant | 121 | 14,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Fadool Joseph F. | director | Withheld for tax | 13,836 | 434,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Demmerle Stefan | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,972 | 236,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | CALAWAY TONIT M | director | Withheld for tax | 12,438 | 218,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Weng Volker | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,660 | 95,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Wingfield Tania | director | Withheld for tax | 5,478 | 40,365 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | McKenzie Isabelle | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,417 | 61,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Aaron Craig | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,249 | 78,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Farrell Paul Arthur | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,879 | 50,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Vanthournout Henk | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,008 | 45,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kulikowski Amy B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 468 | 14,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Wingfield Tania | director | Award / grant | 414 | 45,843 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Vanthournout Henk | officer | Award / grant | 194 | 48,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | CALAWAY TONIT M | director | Award / grant | 846 | 231,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Weng Volker | officer | Award / grant | 710 | 105,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Aaron Craig | officer | Award / grant | 351 | 84,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Fadool Joseph F. | director | Award / grant | 1,018 | 448,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Farrell Paul Arthur | officer | Award / grant | 286 | 54,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kulikowski Amy B. | officer | Award / grant | 26 | 15,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Demmerle Stefan | officer | Award / grant | 953 | 249,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | McKenzie Isabelle | officer | Award / grant | 394 | 66,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Fadool Joseph F. | director | Withheld for tax | 25,984 | 447,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Demmerle Stefan | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,401 | 248,265 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | purchase | 2025-03-12 | 2025-02-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-22 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-12-05 | 2024-11-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-08-07 | 2024-07-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-05-06 | 2024-04-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-04-05 | 2024-03-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-04-05 | 2024-03-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-04-05 | 2024-03-21 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-04-05 | 2024-03-21 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.