Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.79 · now $6.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BW has typically landed between $4.62 and $10.66 — a range of −31.9% to +57.0% from the issuance price $6.79.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,806 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-06-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.79 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.65 (-2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.51–$7.79
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.62–$10.66
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2017-07-24 | −84.0% | −84.0% | +0.7% |
| 2017-07-21 | −82.9% | −82.9% | +0.0% |
| 2017-07-25 | −82.5% | −84.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-07 | +222.3% | +0.0% | +222.3% |
| 2025-04-11 | +217.2% | −11.8% | +217.2% |
| 2025-04-21 | +208.7% | +0.0% | +259.8% |
2,806 overlapping windows · 2015-06-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Moeller Philip D | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $9.50 | $48K | +2.1% of holding | −22.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 240,809 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Young Kenneth M | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $9.65 | $68K | +0.4% of holding | −17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,709,254 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Young Kenneth M | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $15.14 | $106K | +0.4% of holding | +21.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,656,512 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | Frymyer Cameron M | officer | Purchase | 1,285 @ $14.76 | $19K | +0.4% of holding | +21.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 324,143 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-11 | BRC Group Holdings, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,155,382 @ $9.00 | $10.4M | −100.0% of holding | +13.7% | −15.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Frymyer Cameron M | officer | Purchase | 2,853 @ $7.05 | $20K | +1.9% of holding | −14.8% | +203.4% | 156,658 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Young Kenneth M | director | Purchase | 1,675 @ $7.16 | $12K | +0.6% of holding | −14.8% | +203.4% | 272,767 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Young Kenneth M | director | Purchase | 1,500 @ $7.13 | $11K | +0.1% of holding | −14.8% | +203.4% | 1,444,287 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Young Kenneth M | director | Purchase | 9,347 @ $2.14 | $20K | +3.6% of holding | +42.9% | +527.9% | 271,092 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Moeller Philip D | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $1.86 | $19K | +5.3% of holding | +53.9% | +374.8% | 197,559 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Frymyer Cameron M | officer | Purchase | 20,000 @ $1.55 | $31K | +14.9% of holding | +137.6% | +532.1% | 153,805 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Young Kenneth M | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $1.51 | $30K | +8.3% of holding | +101.5% | +513.9% | 261,745 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Dziewisz John J | officer | Sale | 2,915 @ $1.34 | $4K | −1.2% of holding | +62.3% | +615.3% | 239,381 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Dziewisz John J | officer | Sale | 2,551 @ $0.93 | $2K | −1.1% of holding | +127.7% | +883.1% | 227,723 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Salamone Louis Jr | officer | Sale | 98,941 @ $1.91 | $189K | −14.5% of holding | −12.9% | −41.9% | 583,045 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
135 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Howe Alan B | director | Gift | 165,994 | 238,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Howe Alan B | director | Gift | 165,994 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Young Kenneth M | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 1,727,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Frymyer Cameron M | officer | Option exercise | 38,333 | 390,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Young Kenneth M | director | Withheld for tax | 25,050 | 1,702,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Frymyer Cameron M | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,096 | 373,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Young Kenneth M | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Frymyer Cameron M | officer | Option exercise | 38,333 | 76,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Frymyer Cameron M | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Young Kenneth M | director | Award / grant | 125,000 | 125,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Young Kenneth M | director | Option exercise | 41,667 | 1,698,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Frymyer Cameron M | officer | Option exercise | 33,333 | 366,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Young Kenneth M | director | Withheld for tax | 20,875 | 1,677,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Frymyer Cameron M | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,866 | 351,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Young Kenneth M | director | Option exercise | 41,667 | 41,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Frymyer Cameron M | officer | Option exercise | 33,333 | 33,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Frymyer Cameron M | officer | Option exercise | 16,667 | 340,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Frymyer Cameron M | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,433 | 333,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Frymyer Cameron M | officer | Option exercise | 16,667 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Dziewisz John J | officer | Option exercise | 115,000 | 409,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Dziewisz John J | officer | Option exercise | 53,334 | 412,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Dziewisz John J | officer | Withheld for tax | 50,715 | 359,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Dziewisz John J | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 438,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Dziewisz John J | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,520 | 388,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Dziewisz John J | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,050 | 416,767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Dziewisz John J | officer | Option exercise | 53,334 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Dziewisz John J | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Dziewisz John J | officer | Option exercise | 115,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Dziewisz John J | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Moeller Philip D | director | Option exercise | 85,000 | 282,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Boness Naomi Louise | director | Option exercise | 85,000 | 189,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Howe Alan B | director | Option exercise | 85,000 | 212,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Tato Joseph A | director | Option exercise | 85,000 | 254,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Stahl Rebecca L | director | Option exercise | 85,000 | 230,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Howe Alan B | director | Disposition | 46,750 | 165,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Boness Naomi Louise | director | Disposition | 46,750 | 142,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Moeller Philip D | director | Disposition | 46,750 | 235,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Stahl Rebecca L | director | Disposition | 46,750 | 184,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Tato Joseph A | director | Disposition | 46,750 | 207,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Akbari Dr. Homaira | director | Option exercise | 3,021 | 53,021 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.