BVS · TickerCove

BVSBioventus Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Devicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.20 · now $13.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BVS has typically landed between $9.87 and $17.81 — a range of −25.2% to +34.9% from the issuance price $13.20.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,384 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-02-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$13.2 · 76% of range

$6.51 low$15.26 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.0%

typical move · IQR 24.4%

−25.2%worst (p90)+34.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BVS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $13.2 (+0.0%)
typical $13.33 (+1.0%)
middle 50% $11.73–$14.94
90% range $9.87–$17.81

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,384 windows spanning 2021-02-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-10-28	−76.2%	−77.1%	+3.0%
2022-10-31	−76.0%	−77.8%	+0.0%
2022-10-27	−74.0%	−75.9%	+8.5%
3 best
2023-05-03	+216.6%	−1.0%	+216.6%
2023-05-09	+213.6%	+0.0%	+213.6%
2023-05-02	+208.0%	−3.6%	+208.0%

1,384 overlapping windows · 2021-02-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−8.9%

n=5

Feb

60%

+4.2%

n=5

Mar

67%

−1.6%

n=6

Apr

17%

−10.3%

n=6

May

50%

+36.3%

n=6

Jun

50%

−4.4%

n=6

Jul

67%

+16.4%

n=6

Aug

50%

+6.5%

n=6

Sep

17%

−1.5%

n=6

Oct

80%

+9.5%

n=5

Nov

40%

−16.0%

n=5

Dec

60%

+13.1%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-03-11	McMurry-Heath Michelle	director	Sale	12,000 @ $8.79	$105K	−21.1% of holding	+1.1%	+34.1%	44,997	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-04	NOHRA GUY P	director	Sale	10,000 @ $7.57	$76K	−7.9% of holding	−1.0%	+8.8%	116,610	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-07	McMurry-Heath Michelle	director	Sale	17,701 @ $7.42	$131K	−23.7% of holding	−5.3%	+25.5%	56,997	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-11	Singleton Mark Leonard	officer	Sale	3,875 @ $7.57	$29K	−2.7% of holding	−22.5%	−37.1%	141,088	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-11	D'Adamio Anthony	officer	Sale	2,958 @ $7.57	$22K	−2.2% of holding	−22.5%	−37.1%	131,416	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-11	CHURCH KATRINA J	officer	Sale	1,283 @ $7.57	$10K	−2.3% of holding	−22.5%	−37.1%	55,557	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-24	Singleton Mark Leonard	officer	Sale	5,479 @ $9.79	$54K	−4.0% of holding	−15.2%	−45.0%	131,963	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17	D'Adamio Anthony	officer	Sale	2,615 @ $9.75	$25K	−2.1% of holding	−16.1%	−47.3%	124,449	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17	CHURCH KATRINA J	officer	Sale	1,018 @ $9.75	$10K	−1.9% of holding	−16.1%	−47.3%	52,540	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18	Singleton Mark Leonard	officer	Sale	6,498 @ $10.19	$66K	−5.2% of holding	+2.8%	−34.8%	118,817	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18	D'Adamio Anthony	officer	Sale	4,380 @ $10.19	$45K	−3.6% of holding	+2.8%	−34.8%	118,178	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18	CHURCH KATRINA J	officer	Sale	1,537 @ $10.19	$16K	−3.0% of holding	+2.8%	−34.8%	50,102	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-13	Claypoole Robert E	director	Sale	28,786 @ $9.10	$262K	−30.7% of holding	+8.3%	−35.5%	64,964	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-23	Singleton Mark Leonard	officer	Sale	10,733 @ $10.53	$113K	−9.3% of holding	−6.3%	−40.4%	105,162	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-23	D'Adamio Anthony	officer	Sale	5,848 @ $10.53	$62K	−5.1% of holding	−6.3%	−40.4%	109,578	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-23	CHURCH KATRINA J	officer	Sale	2,535 @ $10.53	$27K	−5.1% of holding	−6.3%	−40.4%	47,264	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

144 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-03	Bartholdson John A.	director	Award / grant	25,146	25,146	Form 4
2026-06-03	NEELS GUIDO J	director	Award / grant	25,146	25,146	Form 4
2026-06-03	SUTTER MARTIN P	director	Award / grant	25,146	25,146	Form 4
2026-06-03	NOHRA GUY P	director	Award / grant	25,146	25,146	Form 4
2026-06-03	Cowdy Philip G.	director	Award / grant	25,146	25,146	Form 4
2026-06-03	Beyer Pat	director	Award / grant	25,146	25,146	Form 4
2026-06-03	McMurry-Heath Michelle	director	Award / grant	25,146	25,146	Form 4
2026-06-03	Ladone Mary Kay	director	Award / grant	25,146	25,146	Form 4
2026-06-03	STALNECKER SUSAN M	director	Award / grant	25,146	25,146	Form 4
2026-06-03	HAWKINS WILLIAM A	director	Award / grant	30,994	30,994	Form 4
2026-06-02	STALNECKER SUSAN M	director	Option exercise	32,282	0	Form 4
2026-06-02	NEELS GUIDO J	director	Option exercise	32,282	117,523	Form 4
2026-06-02	NEELS GUIDO J	director	Option exercise	32,282	0	Form 4
2026-06-02	Cowdy Philip G.	director	Option exercise	32,282	43,982	Form 4
2026-06-02	Cowdy Philip G.	director	Option exercise	32,282	0	Form 4
2026-06-02	Ladone Mary Kay	director	Option exercise	32,282	111,263	Form 4
2026-06-02	Ladone Mary Kay	director	Option exercise	32,282	0	Form 4
2026-06-02	McMurry-Heath Michelle	director	Option exercise	32,282	77,279	Form 4
2026-06-02	McMurry-Heath Michelle	director	Option exercise	32,282	0	Form 4
2026-06-02	HAWKINS WILLIAM A	director	Option exercise	39,789	0	Form 4
2026-06-02	Beyer Pat	director	Option exercise	32,282	108,718	Form 4
2026-06-02	Beyer Pat	director	Option exercise	32,282	0	Form 4
2026-06-02	Bartholdson John A.	director	Option exercise	32,282	111,902	Form 4
2026-06-02	SUTTER MARTIN P	director	Option exercise	32,282	117,523	Form 4
2026-06-02	SUTTER MARTIN P	director	Option exercise	32,282	0	Form 4
2026-06-02	HAWKINS WILLIAM A	director	Option exercise	39,789	297,640	Form 4
2026-06-02	NOHRA GUY P	director	Option exercise	32,282	148,892	Form 4
2026-06-02	NOHRA GUY P	director	Option exercise	32,282	0	Form 4
2026-06-02	STALNECKER SUSAN M	director	Option exercise	32,282	138,239	Form 4
2026-06-02	Bartholdson John A.	director	Option exercise	32,282	0	Form 4
2026-04-10	Singleton Mark Leonard	officer	Withheld for tax	5,648	177,333	Form 4
2026-04-10	D'Adamio Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	4,312	153,655	Form 4
2026-04-10	CHURCH KATRINA J	officer	Withheld for tax	1,868	64,164	Form 4
2026-04-10	D'Adamio Anthony	officer	Option exercise	9,925	9,925	Form 4
2026-04-10	Singleton Mark Leonard	officer	Option exercise	13,000	182,981	Form 4
2026-04-10	Singleton Mark Leonard	officer	Option exercise	13,000	13,000	Form 4
2026-04-10	CHURCH KATRINA J	officer	Option exercise	4,300	66,032	Form 4
2026-04-10	CHURCH KATRINA J	officer	Option exercise	4,300	4,300	Form 4
2026-04-10	D'Adamio Anthony	officer	Option exercise	9,925	157,967	Form 4
2026-03-20	Singleton Mark Leonard	officer	Withheld for tax	8,091	169,981	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i