Issued 2026-09-16 at $30.24 · now $30.24 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BUSE has typically landed between $27.14 and $34.18 — a range of −10.2% to +13.0% from the issuance price $30.24.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($30.24) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BUSE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $30.24 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $30.24 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $30.36 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $28.76–$31.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $27.14–$34.18
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-01-02 | −53.8% | −53.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-12-31 | −53.2% | −53.2% | +0.0% |
| 2009-01-05 | −53.0% | −53.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-02-18 | +61.7% | −5.0% | +61.7% |
| 2009-02-17 | +52.3% | −6.0% | +52.3% |
| 2009-02-20 | +50.5% | −8.2% | +56.3% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
45%
−3.1%
n=20
Feb
50%
−0.8%
n=20
Mar
55%
+0.0%
n=20
Apr
45%
−0.8%
n=20
May
55%
+0.7%
n=20
Jun
60%
+0.4%
n=20
Jul
55%
+1.7%
n=20
Aug
45%
−0.9%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.2%
n=20
Oct
60%
+2.8%
n=20
Nov
75%
+3.0%
n=20
Dec
50%
+1.0%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Cassens Michael David | director | Sale | 1,441 @ $30.45 | $44K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 130,012 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Cassens Michael David | director | Sale | 1,441 @ $31.08 | $45K | −1.1% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 131,453 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Cassens Michael David | director | Sale | 1,441 @ $29.34 | $42K | −1.1% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 132,673 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Cassens Michael David | director | Sale | 5,528 @ $29.00 | $160K | −4.0% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,114 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Cassens Michael David | director | Sale | 750 @ $28.92 | $22K | −0.5% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,642 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Cassens Michael David | director | Sale | 750 @ $26.11 | $20K | −0.5% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 140,392 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 600 @ $25.99 | $16K | +0.1% of holding | +8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 505,854 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | Phillips Scott A. | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $25.90 | $130K | +149.3% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Cassens Michael David | director | Sale | 750 @ $26.75 | $20K | −0.5% of holding | −7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 140,888 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 400 @ $24.00 | $10K | +0.1% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 502,081 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Cassens Michael David | director | Sale | 750 @ $24.92 | $19K | −0.5% of holding | +1.0% | +10.1% | 138,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $24.50 | $25K | +0.2% of holding | +4.9% | +9.2% | 501,681 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Cassens Michael David | director | Sale | 750 @ $26.61 | $20K | −0.5% of holding | −5.8% | +5.7% | 139,523 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Cassens Michael David | director | Sale | 750 @ $24.24 | $18K | −0.5% of holding | +9.2% | +14.1% | 140,031 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Cassens Michael David | director | Sale | 750 @ $25.37 | $19K | −0.5% of holding | −3.5% | +3.7% | 140,781 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Maddox Mike | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $25.52 | $26K | +2.5% of holding | +0.2% | +9.1% | 40,280 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Cassens Michael David | director | Sale | 750 @ $22.92 | $17K | −0.5% of holding | +8.1% | +5.6% | 141,531 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Phillips Scott A. | officer | Purchase | 1,350 @ $25.64 | $35K | +135.0% of holding | +5.1% | +14.5% | 2,350 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $22.36 | $22K | +0.2% of holding | +5.1% | +14.5% | 500,382 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 500 @ $22.22 | $11K | +0.1% of holding | +5.1% | +14.5% | 499,382 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Jensen Karen M | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $24.60 | $74K | +3.6% of holding | −8.5% | +1.9% | 86,798 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Maddox Mike | director | Purchase | 7,500 @ $25.44 | $191K | +23.6% of holding | −9.4% | −1.8% | 39,280 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-05 | Maddox Mike | director | Purchase | 460 @ $25.44 | $12K | ownership Δ n/a | −9.4% | −1.8% | 460 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-04 | Maddox Mike | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $25.52 | $255K | +45.9% of holding | −9.8% | −0.7% | 31,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Maddox Mike | director | Purchase | 21,780 @ $25.26 | $550K | ownership Δ n/a | −10.8% | −1.0% | 21,780 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Phillips Scott A. | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $25.25 | $25K | ownership Δ n/a | +4.9% | +7.8% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $22.35 | $67K | +0.6% of holding | +8.6% | +2.7% | 498,568 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | Jensen Karen M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $23.25 | $58K | +3.1% of holding | +2.1% | −0.7% | 83,568 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $23.25 | $58K | +0.5% of holding | +2.1% | −0.7% | 495,269 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Jensen Karen M | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $22.50 | $113K | +6.6% of holding | +3.2% | +0.5% | 81,068 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | CAPLE STEVEN W | director | Purchase | 3,300 @ $22.39 | $74K | +65.4% of holding | +3.2% | +0.5% | 8,344 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-13 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $22.40 | $22K | +0.2% of holding | +3.2% | +0.5% | 492,769 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | CAPLE STEVEN W | director | Purchase | 85 @ $22.75 | $2K | +1.7% of holding | +0.6% | −2.6% | 5,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $21.75 | $22K | +0.2% of holding | +4.4% | −6.1% | 491,769 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | CAPLE STEVEN W | director | Purchase | 450 @ $21.75 | $10K | +10.0% of holding | +4.4% | −6.1% | 4,959 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Jensen Karen M | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $22.00 | $88K | +5.6% of holding | +2.9% | −7.9% | 76,068 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $22.00 | $22K | +0.2% of holding | −2.2% | −6.8% | 490,769 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Jensen Karen M | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $21.70 | $65K | +4.5% of holding | +1.0% | −4.8% | 69,568 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Jensen Karen M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $21.69 | $54K | +3.6% of holding | +1.0% | −4.8% | 72,068 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | CAPLE STEVEN W | director | Purchase | 1,175 @ $21.60 | $25K | +35.2% of holding | +1.0% | −4.8% | 4,509 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $21.63 | $22K | +0.2% of holding | +1.0% | −4.8% | 489,769 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Jensen Karen M | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $22.07 | $66K | +5.2% of holding | −8.1% | −4.9% | 60,518 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-14 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $21.70 | $65K | +0.6% of holding | −8.1% | −4.9% | 485,143 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-14 | Jensen Karen M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $21.80 | $55K | +4.1% of holding | −8.1% | −4.9% | 63,018 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-13 | Jensen Karen M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $21.95 | $55K | +4.5% of holding | −7.0% | −3.1% | 57,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Jensen Karen M | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $21.74 | $43K | +3.8% of holding | −7.0% | −3.1% | 55,018 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 1,700 @ $21.70 | $37K | +0.4% of holding | −7.0% | −3.1% | 482,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 3,700 @ $21.54 | $80K | +0.8% of holding | −2.7% | +0.6% | 480,443 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 7,600 @ $21.84 | $166K | +1.6% of holding | +1.0% | +0.4% | 476,743 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 3,633 @ $22.52 | $82K | +0.8% of holding | −4.4% | +0.8% | 469,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Purchase | 662 @ $23.00 | $15K | +0.1% of holding | −3.1% | −2.9% | 465,510 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
249 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Bowe Monica L | officer | Award / grant | 268 | 63,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Brenneman Rod | director | Award / grant | 53 | 32,789 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | CAPLE STEVEN W | director | Award / grant | 53 | 11,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Cassens Michael David | director | Award / grant | 221 | 132,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Chan Christopher H.M. | officer | Award / grant | 286 | 34,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | DUKEMAN VAN A | director | Award / grant | 1,577 | 533,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | KENNEY FREDERIC L | director | Award / grant | 264 | 74,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | RAUCKMAN KEVIN | director | Award / grant | 53 | 12,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Grigsby Jennifer M | director | Award / grant | 53 | 24,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | King Stephen V | director | Award / grant | 304 | 36,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Wehrli Scott A | director | Award / grant | 108 | 13,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Randolph Amy L | officer | Award / grant | 364 | 117,169 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Hammond Thomas Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 105 | 12,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Jorstad Chip S. | officer | Award / grant | 207 | 65,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Fauss Amy | officer | Award / grant | 189 | 100,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Jensen Karen M | director | Award / grant | 212 | 90,711 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Phillips Scott A. | officer | Award / grant | 75 | 20,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | White Tiffany B. | director | Award / grant | 87 | 10,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Peluso Michael A | officer | Award / grant | 94 | 27,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | DUKEMAN VAN A | director | Award / grant | 70,644 | 532,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Jorstad Chip S. | officer | Award / grant | 269 | 65,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fauss Amy | officer | Award / grant | 266 | 99,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Bowe Monica L | officer | Award / grant | 97 | 63,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | DUKEMAN VAN A | director | Award / grant | 164 | 461,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Phillips Scott A. | officer | Award / grant | 61 | 20,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Fauss Amy | officer | Award / grant | 13 | 99,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Cassens Michael David | director | Award / grant | 254 | 141,142 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Phillips Scott A. | officer | Award / grant | 86 | 20,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Fauss Amy | officer | Award / grant | 218 | 99,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | King Stephen V | director | Award / grant | 349 | 36,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Grigsby Jennifer M | director | Award / grant | 62 | 24,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Powers John Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 319 | 117,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Wehrli Scott A | director | Award / grant | 125 | 12,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Randolph Amy L | officer | Award / grant | 418 | 116,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | White Tiffany B. | director | Award / grant | 100 | 10,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Chan Christopher H.M. | officer | Award / grant | 329 | 33,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Brenneman Rod | director | Award / grant | 62 | 32,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | CAPLE STEVEN W | director | Award / grant | 62 | 11,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | DUKEMAN VAN A | director | Award / grant | 1,128 | 461,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | BRADSHAW STANLEY J | director | Award / grant | 308 | 505,254 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.