Issued 2026-09-17 at $239.54 · now $239.54 (2026-09-17, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-17 close, BURL has typically landed between $193.79 and $285.37 — a range of −19.1% to +19.1% from the issuance price $239.54.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,238 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-10-02 – 2026-08-18 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,377 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-17 issuance close ($239.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-16, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BURL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-17 close of $239.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $239.54 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $241.04 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $222.58–$259.51
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $193.79–$285.37
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,238 windows spanning 2013-10-02 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −51.2% | −51.2% | +0.5% |
| 2020-02-19 | −47.4% | −51.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −46.0% | −46.0% | +1.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-11-02 | +52.1% | +0.0% | +52.1% |
| 2022-10-24 | +51.8% | +0.0% | +51.8% |
| 2020-03-18 | +51.6% | +0.0% | +51.6% |
3,238 overlapping windows · 2013-10-02 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
38%
−0.0%
n=13
Feb
62%
+1.5%
n=13
Mar
62%
+0.3%
n=13
Apr
54%
−0.8%
n=13
May
62%
+2.1%
n=13
Jun
46%
+0.3%
n=13
Jul
85%
+6.6%
n=13
Aug
62%
−0.1%
n=13
Sep
23%
−3.6%
n=13
Oct
33%
+0.2%
n=12
Nov
85%
+12.2%
n=13
Dec
69%
+5.5%
n=13
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 440 @ $263.62 | $116K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 76,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 307 @ $255.94 | $79K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 77,142 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 212 @ $254.54 | $54K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 77,449 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 186 @ $262.09 | $49K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 76,541 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 162 @ $257.16 | $42K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 76,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 136 @ $260.76 | $35K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 76,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 118 @ $264.20 | $31K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 75,983 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 117 @ $258.57 | $30K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 76,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 847 @ $368.44 | $312K | −1.1% of holding | −29.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,114 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 378 @ $367.72 | $139K | −0.5% of holding | −29.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,961 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 161 @ $372.79 | $60K | −0.2% of holding | −29.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,661 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 147 @ $371.58 | $55K | −0.2% of holding | −29.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,822 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 145 @ $369.26 | $54K | −0.2% of holding | −29.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,969 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 520 @ $316.51 | $165K | −0.6% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,598 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 443 @ $315.64 | $140K | −0.5% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,118 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 281 @ $313.08 | $88K | −0.3% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,561 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 210 @ $318.23 | $67K | −0.3% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,388 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 91 @ $311.91 | $28K | −0.1% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,842 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 84 @ $310.10 | $26K | −0.1% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,933 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 49 @ $319.02 | $16K | −0.1% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,339 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Wolfe Kristin | officer | Sale | 3,210 @ $341.10 | $1.1M | −10.7% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,892 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Wolfe Kristin | officer | Sale | 2,930 @ $339.10 | $994K | −8.3% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,162 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Wolfe Kristin | officer | Sale | 2,060 @ $340.34 | $701K | −6.4% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,102 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 10,787 @ $341.57 | $3.7M | −11.0% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,093 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 5,847 @ $342.43 | $2.0M | −6.7% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,246 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 2,740 @ $340.48 | $933K | −2.7% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,880 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 1,317 @ $339.13 | $447K | −1.3% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,620 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 229 @ $343.10 | $79K | −0.3% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,017 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Ferroni Stephen | officer | Sale | 1,311 @ $337.31 | $442K | −48.5% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,391 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Ferroni Stephen | officer | Sale | 1,032 @ $337.11 | $348K | −27.6% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,702 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Pasch Matthew | officer | Sale | 3,773 @ $317.21 | $1.2M | −36.6% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,523 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Marquette Travis | officer | Sale | 163 @ $313.62 | $51K | −0.6% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,327 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Marquette Travis | officer | Sale | 18 @ $315.42 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,309 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Marquette Travis | officer | Sale | 9 @ $311.33 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,490 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Marquette Travis | officer | Sale | 289 @ $308.30 | $89K | −1.0% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,286 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Marquette Travis | officer | Sale | 137 @ $312.75 | $43K | −0.5% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,040 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Marquette Travis | officer | Sale | 122 @ $313.92 | $38K | −0.4% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,918 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Marquette Travis | officer | Sale | 125 @ $305.19 | $38K | −0.4% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,685 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Marquette Travis | officer | Sale | 110 @ $307.04 | $34K | −0.4% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,575 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Marquette Travis | officer | Sale | 72 @ $309.34 | $22K | −0.3% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,214 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Marquette Travis | officer | Sale | 37 @ $311.70 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,177 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Marquette Travis | officer | Sale | 2 @ $314.55 | $629 | −0.0% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,916 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 215 @ $331.08 | $71K | −0.3% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,606 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 110 @ $332.28 | $37K | −0.1% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,496 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 64 @ $329.55 | $21K | −0.1% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,821 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 30 @ $327.65 | $10K | −0.0% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,885 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Marquette Travis | officer | Sale | 1,535 @ $327.64 | $503K | −5.3% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,271 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Marquette Travis | officer | Sale | 1,303 @ $326.85 | $426K | −4.3% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,806 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Marquette Travis | officer | Sale | 787 @ $329.08 | $259K | −2.9% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Goodwin Michael | director | Sale | 259 @ $324.04 | $84K | −6.1% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,958 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Marquette Travis | officer | Sale | 134 @ $329.91 | $44K | −0.5% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Goodwin Michael | director | Sale | 62 @ $324.21 | $20K | −1.6% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,896 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 98 @ $305.28 | $30K | −0.1% of holding | +12.0% | −26.9% | 96,696 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 79 @ $299.21 | $24K | −0.1% of holding | +12.0% | −26.9% | 96,943 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 73 @ $306.27 | $22K | −0.1% of holding | +12.0% | −26.9% | 96,623 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 69 @ $304.21 | $21K | −0.1% of holding | +12.0% | −26.9% | 96,794 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 40 @ $302.09 | $12K | −0.0% of holding | +12.0% | −26.9% | 96,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 40 @ $300.94 | $12K | −0.0% of holding | +12.0% | −26.9% | 96,903 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 20 @ $298.38 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | +12.0% | −26.9% | 97,022 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Sale | 177 @ $298.83 | $53K | −0.3% of holding | +2.2% | +11.6% | 62,551 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
127 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Wolfe Kristin | officer | Withheld for tax | 216 | 26,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | MCNAMARA WILLIAM P | director | Gift | 6,048 | 4,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Wolfe Kristin | officer | Option exercise | 3,768 | 33,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Wolfe Kristin | officer | Option exercise | 1,500 | 35,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Wolfe Kristin | officer | Option exercise | 3,768 | 1,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Wolfe Kristin | officer | Option exercise | 1,500 | 30,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 10,386 | 101,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 10,534 | 91,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 10,534 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 10,386 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Ferroni Stephen | officer | Option exercise | 1,032 | 3,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Ferroni Stephen | officer | Option exercise | 1,032 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | ENGLISH EDMOND J | director | Award / grant | 596 | 9,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Goodman Shira | director | Award / grant | 596 | 1,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | MAHONEY JOHN | director | Award / grant | 596 | 16,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SEN LAURA | director | Award / grant | 596 | 7,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | HITCH JORDAN | director | Award / grant | 596 | 12,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Rodriguez Jessica | director | Award / grant | 596 | 6,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Goodwin Michael | director | Award / grant | 596 | 4,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Skirvin Michael C | director | Award / grant | 596 | 906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Sullivan Paul | director | Award / grant | 596 | 8,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | MCNAMARA WILLIAM P | director | Award / grant | 596 | 1,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | O SULLIVAN MICHAEL B | director | Withheld for tax | 1,305 | 173,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Withheld for tax | 791 | 81,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Marquette Travis | officer | Withheld for tax | 417 | 27,499 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Pasch Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 78 | 10,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Ferroni Stephen | officer | Withheld for tax | 22 | 2,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | O SULLIVAN MICHAEL B | director | Withheld for tax | 1,888 | 174,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | O SULLIVAN MICHAEL B | director | Withheld for tax | 1,677 | 176,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | O SULLIVAN MICHAEL B | director | Withheld for tax | 1,553 | 178,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,132 | 81,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,102 | 83,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,005 | 82,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Marquette Travis | officer | Withheld for tax | 781 | 28,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Marquette Travis | officer | Withheld for tax | 694 | 29,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Wolfe Kristin | officer | Withheld for tax | 584 | 29,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Marquette Travis | officer | Withheld for tax | 482 | 30,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Wolfe Kristin | officer | Withheld for tax | 324 | 30,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Wolfe Kristin | officer | Withheld for tax | 291 | 30,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Pasch Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 126 | 10,374 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.