BUR · TickerCove

BURBurford Capital Limitedas of 2026-09-17

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-17 at $3.99 · now $3.99 (2026-09-17, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-17 close, BUR has typically landed between $3.31 and $4.68 — a range of −17.0% to +17.4% from the issuance price $3.99.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,140 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-04-01 – 2026-08-18 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,377 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-17 issuance close ($3.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-16, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$3.99 · 1% of range

$3.87 low$13.73 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-17 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,377 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.2%

typical move · IQR 13.7%

−17.0%worst (p90)+17.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BUR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-17 close of $3.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $3.99 (+0.0%)
typical $3.94 (-1.2%)
middle 50% $3.67–$4.21
90% range $3.31–$4.68

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,140 windows spanning 2015-04-01 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2019-06-26	−59.3%	−59.3%	+5.6%
2020-02-11	−55.5%	−55.5%	+0.0%
2019-07-31	−53.4%	−56.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2015-04-01	+124.4%	+0.0%	+124.4%
2015-06-10	+112.7%	+0.0%	+112.7%
2015-04-02	+106.6%	+0.0%	+124.4%

2,140 overlapping windows · 2015-04-01 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+5.6%

n=10

Feb

36%

−4.7%

n=11

Mar

50%

+0.3%

n=10

Apr

70%

+9.5%

n=10

May

36%

+0.2%

n=11

Jun

27%

−4.3%

n=11

Jul

83%

+11.4%

n=12

Aug

50%

−3.4%

n=12

Sep

36%

−2.1%

n=11

Oct

60%

+0.1%

n=10

Nov

60%

+3.2%

n=10

Dec

40%

−2.7%

n=10

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-07-09	BOGART CHRISTOPHER P	director	Sale	210,000 @ $14.60	$3.1M	−43.0% of holding	−13.9%	−48.2%	278,862	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-09	Molot Jonathan Todd	officer	Sale	210,000 @ $14.60	$3.1M	−5.8% of holding	−13.9%	−48.2%	3,406,625	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-09	Will Aviva O.	officer	Sale	17,500 @ $14.60	$255K	−5.6% of holding	−13.9%	−48.2%	293,479	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-09	Perla David	officer	Sale	7,000 @ $14.60	$102K	−8.0% of holding	−13.9%	−48.2%	80,172	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-10	Lenkner Travis	officer	Purchase	25,283 @ $13.25	$335K	ownership Δ n/a	+2.4%	−18.8%	25,283	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-28	Molot Jonathan Todd	officer	Sale	90,000 @ $14.61	$1.3M	−2.5% of holding	+9.1%	−17.3%	3,577,194	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-28	BOGART CHRISTOPHER P	director	Sale	90,000 @ $14.61	$1.3M	−16.6% of holding	+9.1%	−17.3%	452,185	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-28	Will Aviva O.	officer	Sale	7,500 @ $14.61	$110K	−2.4% of holding	+9.1%	−17.3%	310,979	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-28	Perla David	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $14.61	$44K	−3.5% of holding	+9.1%	−17.3%	82,489	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

172 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-15	BOGART CHRISTOPHER P	director	Withheld for tax	18,294	103,586	Form 4
2026-06-15	OCONNELL ELIZABETH	officer	Withheld for tax	9,265	32,847	Form 4
2026-06-15	OCONNELL ELIZABETH	officer	Option exercise	42,112	42,112	Form 4
2026-06-15	Dames Rukia Baruti	director	Award / grant	11,203	19,879	Form 4
2026-06-15	Corrie Pamela B	director	Award / grant	11,203	19,365	Form 4
2026-06-15	Gillespie Robert Andrew Joseph	director	Award / grant	11,203	30,185	Form 4
2026-06-15	Noel Ricky J.	director	Award / grant	7,121	7,121	Form 4
2026-06-15	Halmy Christopher A	director	Award / grant	22,406	59,576	Form 4
2026-06-15	BOGART CHRISTOPHER P	director	Option exercise	121,880	121,880	Form 4
2026-06-15	Sievwright John P.	director	Award / grant	32,076	66,319	Form 4
2026-06-15	OCONNELL ELIZABETH	officer	Option exercise	42,112	346,485	Form 4
2026-06-15	BOGART CHRISTOPHER P	director	Option exercise	121,880	2,094,826	Form 4
2026-06-15	BOGART CHRISTOPHER P	director	Option exercise	121,880	2,094,826	Form 4
2026-06-15	OCONNELL ELIZABETH	officer	Option exercise	42,112	346,485	Form 4
2026-03-26	Licht Jordan David	officer	Withheld for tax	18,597	68,350	Form 4
2026-03-26	Klein Mark N.	officer	Withheld for tax	18,148	95,476	Form 4
2026-03-26	OCONNELL ELIZABETH	officer	Withheld for tax	13,029	54,359	Form 4
2026-03-26	Utley Charles	officer	Withheld for tax	8,466	31,401	Form 4
2026-03-26	Perla David	officer	Withheld for tax	1,739	81,119	Form 4
2026-03-26	Molot Jonathan Todd	officer	Withheld for tax	1,104	3,406,625	Form 4
2026-03-26	BOGART CHRISTOPHER P	director	Withheld for tax	1,104	0	Form 4
2026-03-26	Lenkner Travis	officer	Withheld for tax	517	25,866	Form 4
2026-03-26	Licht Jordan David	officer	Option exercise	14,197	83,156	Form 4
2026-03-26	Licht Jordan David	officer	Option exercise	14,197	211,193	Form 4
2026-03-26	BOGART CHRISTOPHER P	director	Option exercise	107,568	2,134,982	Form 4
2026-03-26	BOGART CHRISTOPHER P	director	Award / grant	107,568	2,242,550	Form 4
2026-03-26	BOGART CHRISTOPHER P	director	Option exercise	82,829	2,159,721	Form 4
2026-03-26	BOGART CHRISTOPHER P	director	Award / grant	81,725	2,241,446	Form 4
2026-03-26	Klein Mark N.	officer	Option exercise	18,437	95,636	Form 4
2026-03-26	Klein Mark N.	officer	Option exercise	14,197	109,833	Form 4
2026-03-26	Klein Mark N.	officer	Option exercise	3,791	113,624	Form 4
2026-03-26	Klein Mark N.	officer	Option exercise	18,437	115,340	Form 4
2026-03-26	Klein Mark N.	officer	Option exercise	14,197	101,143	Form 4
2026-03-26	OCONNELL ELIZABETH	officer	Option exercise	18,437	53,191	Form 4
2026-03-26	OCONNELL ELIZABETH	officer	Option exercise	14,197	392,837	Form 4
2026-03-26	OCONNELL ELIZABETH	officer	Option exercise	3,791	389,046	Form 4
2026-03-26	OCONNELL ELIZABETH	officer	Award / grant	3,791	392,837	Form 4
2026-03-26	Molot Jonathan Todd	officer	Option exercise	107,568	2,203,279	Form 4
2026-03-26	Molot Jonathan Todd	officer	Award / grant	107,568	2,310,847	Form 4
2026-03-26	Perla David	officer	Option exercise	18,437	203,461	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-183% elapsed2026-10-16

Logged immutably 2026-09-18; scored automatically on 2026-10-16 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i