Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.69 · now $7.69 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BULL has typically landed between $6.27 and $9.43 — a range of −18.5% to +22.6% from the issuance price $7.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
999 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-08-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BULL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.69 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.72 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.68–$7.77
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.27–$9.43
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-04-15 | −70.0% | −70.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-04-16 | −65.7% | −66.1% | +0.0% |
| 2025-04-17 | −54.8% | −54.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-03-14 | +249.9% | −5.0% | +249.9% |
| 2025-03-17 | +208.8% | −5.3% | +248.7% |
| 2025-03-18 | +124.5% | −5.3% | +248.7% |
999 overlapping windows · 2022-08-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Wang Haichen | director | Sale | 55,000 @ $8.98 | $494K | −6.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 772,046 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Denier Anthony Michael | director | Sale | 53,846 @ $9.58 | $516K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,278,449 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | Denier Anthony Michael | director | Sale | 53,848 @ $8.83 | $476K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,332,295 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | James Benjamin Worthy | director | Sale | 50,273 @ $9.02 | $453K | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,150,991 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Denier Anthony Michael | director | Sale | 75,000 @ $6.22 | $467K | −3.0% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,386,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
7 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Bishop Walter A. | director | Option exercise | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Bishop Walter A. | director | Option exercise | 12,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Bishop Walter A. | director | Award / grant | 29,584 | 29,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | HOULIHAN WILLIAM A | director | Award / grant | 42,471 | 42,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | HOULIHAN WILLIAM A | director | Option exercise | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | HOULIHAN WILLIAM A | director | Award / grant | 4,719 | 17,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | HOULIHAN WILLIAM A | director | Option exercise | 12,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.