BTU · TickerCove

BTUPeabody Energy Corporationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.35 · now $27.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BTU has typically landed between $21.48 and $36.01 — a range of −21.4% to +31.7% from the issuance price $27.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,344 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-04-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$27.35 · 47% of range

$16.65 low$39.38 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.4%

typical move · IQR 18.2%

−21.4%worst (p90)+31.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BTU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $27.35 (+0.0%)
typical $27.47 (+0.4%)
middle 50% $24.98–$29.96
90% range $21.48–$36.01

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,344 windows spanning 2017-04-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-11	−68.0%	−68.0%	+0.0%
2020-02-10	−65.7%	−65.7%	+0.0%
2020-09-18	−62.6%	−62.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-12-24	+170.9%	+0.0%	+170.9%
2020-12-03	+166.7%	−2.4%	+166.7%
2020-12-07	+160.8%	+0.0%	+173.3%

2,344 overlapping windows · 2017-04-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

78%

+9.0%

n=9

Feb

33%

+0.4%

n=9

Mar

22%

−6.2%

n=9

Apr

44%

−1.3%

n=9

May

60%

+7.0%

n=10

Jun

60%

+0.6%

n=10

Jul

70%

+7.7%

n=10

Aug

60%

+6.2%

n=10

Sep

50%

+2.6%

n=10

Oct

22%

−10.7%

n=9

Nov

44%

+0.2%

n=9

Dec

56%

+8.0%

n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-01	Jarboe Scott T.	officer	Sale	2,925 @ $28.02	$82K	−3.3% of holding	−22.2%	not yet — horizon still open	85,295	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07	Bertone Andrea E.	director	Sale	4,584 @ $24.43	$112K	−9.9% of holding	+16.5%	not yet — horizon still open	41,613	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-04	Spurbeck Mark	officer	Sale	30,000 @ $35.58	$1.1M	−30.5% of holding	−2.0%	not yet — horizon still open	68,394	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10	Yeates Darren Ronald	officer	Sale	13,892 @ $36.40	$506K	−10.9% of holding	+3.9%	−30.9%	113,440	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-14	Jarboe Scott T.	officer	Sale	2,151 @ $34.26	$74K	−2.5% of holding	−3.2%	−45.7%	82,306	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03	Jarboe Scott T.	officer	Sale	2,018 @ $14.22	$29K	−2.5% of holding	+6.9%	+18.8%	77,619	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24	Grech James C.	director	Purchase	6,684 @ $14.97	$100K	+2.0% of holding	−0.3%	+5.2%	333,030	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

146 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-03	Grech James C.	director	Award / grant	267	325,490	Form 4
2026-09-03	Yeates Darren Ronald	officer	Award / grant	130	130,498	Form 4
2026-09-03	Bertone Andrea E.	director	Award / grant	123	47,171	Form 4
2026-09-03	Champion William H	director	Award / grant	101	43,304	Form 4
2026-09-03	Spurbeck Mark	officer	Award / grant	92	68,652	Form 4
2026-09-03	Jarboe Scott T.	officer	Award / grant	79	85,448	Form 4
2026-09-03	Banks Margaret Katherine	director	Award / grant	65	22,533	Form 4
2026-09-03	Chirekos Nicholas J.	director	Award / grant	53	44,672	Form 4
2026-09-03	Malone Robert A	director	Award / grant	52	58,692	Form 4
2026-09-03	GORMAN STEPHEN E	director	Award / grant	51	57,720	Form 4
2026-09-03	Roberts Malcolm James	officer	Award / grant	47	33,557	Form 4
2026-09-03	Walker Clayton D.	director	Award / grant	23	7,927	Form 4
2026-09-03	Hodges Georganne	director	Award / grant	22	8,064	Form 4
2026-06-08	Grech James C.	director	Award / grant	260	325,223	Form 4
2026-06-08	Bertone Andrea E.	director	Award / grant	137	47,048	Form 4
2026-06-08	Yeates Darren Ronald	officer	Award / grant	121	130,368	Form 4
2026-06-08	Champion William H	director	Award / grant	114	43,203	Form 4
2026-06-08	Spurbeck Mark	officer	Award / grant	89	68,560	Form 4
2026-06-08	Jarboe Scott T.	officer	Award / grant	74	85,369	Form 4
2026-06-08	Malone Robert A	director	Award / grant	71	58,640	Form 4
2026-06-08	Chirekos Nicholas J.	director	Award / grant	68	44,619	Form 4
2026-06-08	GORMAN STEPHEN E	director	Award / grant	65	57,669	Form 4
2026-06-08	Banks Margaret Katherine	director	Award / grant	59	22,469	Form 4
2026-06-08	Roberts Malcolm James	officer	Award / grant	43	33,510	Form 4
2026-06-08	Hodges Georganne	director	Award / grant	21	8,042	Form 4
2026-06-08	Walker Clayton D.	director	Award / grant	20	7,904	Form 4
2026-05-08	GORMAN STEPHEN E	director	Award / grant	5,298	57,604	Form 4
2026-05-08	Malone Robert A	director	Award / grant	5,298	58,569	Form 4
2026-05-08	Walker Clayton D.	director	Award / grant	5,616	7,884	Form 4
2026-05-08	Bertone Andrea E.	director	Award / grant	5,298	46,911	Form 4
2026-05-08	Hodges Georganne	director	Award / grant	5,616	8,021	Form 4
2026-05-08	Champion William H	director	Award / grant	5,298	43,089	Form 4
2026-05-08	Banks Margaret Katherine	director	Award / grant	5,298	22,410	Form 4
2026-05-08	Chirekos Nicholas J.	director	Award / grant	5,298	44,551	Form 4
2026-05-08	LAYMON JOE W	director	Award / grant	5,298	59,689	Form 4
2026-03-10	Grech James C.	director	Award / grant	225	324,963	Form 4
2026-03-10	LAYMON JOE W	director	Award / grant	113	54,391	Form 4
2026-03-10	Bertone Andrea E.	director	Award / grant	106	46,197	Form 4
2026-03-10	Yeates Darren Ronald	officer	Award / grant	104	130,247	Form 4
2026-03-10	Champion William H	director	Award / grant	86	37,791	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i