BTSGBrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common StockHealthcare · Medical - Healthcare Information Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $58.96 · now $58.96 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BTSG has typically landed between $49.94 and $74.05 — a range of −15.3% to +25.6% from the issuance price $58.96.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

641 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-01-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($58.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BTSG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $58.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$49.94worst · -15.3%$74.05best · +25.6%
  • now $58.96 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $63.12 (+7.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $57.87–$68.36
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $49.94–$74.05
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 641 windows spanning 2024-01-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-02-06−28.7%−28.7%+0.0%
2025-02-04−26.7%−26.7%+0.0%
2024-02-13−26.3%−26.3%+0.0%
3 best
2025-04-21+52.5%+0.0%+56.4%
2025-04-22+47.5%+0.0%+51.8%
2025-04-16+45.3%−7.1%+45.3%

641 overlapping windows · 2024-01-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
100%
+21.7%
n=2
Feb
33%
−10.4%
n=3
Mar
67%
+5.9%
n=3
Apr
33%
+2.6%
n=3
May
100%
+23.2%
n=3
Jun
67%
+4.4%
n=3
Jul
33%
−5.9%
n=3
Aug
67%
+4.6%
n=3
Sep
100%
+14.2%
n=3
Oct
100%
+6.9%
n=2
Nov
100%
+19.2%
n=2
Dec
50%
−4.1%
n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$73$222026-09-14: 1 insider sale, $874K — Greenwell Scott A.2026-06-05: 6 insider sales, $1.7B — KKR Group Partnership L.P., KKR Phoenix Aggregator L.P., ROUSSEAU JON B, Phipps Jennifer A …2026-03-04: 5 insider sales, $1.6B — KKR Phoenix Aggregator L.P., KKR Group Partnership L.P., ROUSSEAU JON B, Phipps Jennifer A …2025-10-22: 4 insider sales, $856.1M — KKR Phoenix Aggregator L.P., KKR Group Partnership L.P., ROUSSEAU JON B, Nalley Lisa A2025-10: 4 open-market sales, $856.1M2026-03: 5 open-market sales, $1.6B2026-06: 6 open-market sales, $1.7B2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $874K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Greenwell Scott A. — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner KKR Group Partnership L.P. — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed same daytenPercentOwner KKR Phoenix Aggregator L.P. — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed same daydirector ROUSSEAU JON B — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed same daydirector ROUSSEAU JON B — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed same dayofficer Phipps Jennifer A — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed same dayofficer Nalley Lisa A — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed same daytenPercentOwner KKR Phoenix Aggregator L.P. — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same daytenPercentOwner KKR Group Partnership L.P. — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same daydirector ROUSSEAU JON B — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phipps Jennifer A — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Nalley Lisa A — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner KKR Phoenix Aggregator L.P. — Sale on 2025-10-22, filed same daytenPercentOwner KKR Group Partnership L.P. — Sale on 2025-10-22, filed same daydirector ROUSSEAU JON B — Sale on 2025-10-22, filed same dayofficer Nalley Lisa A — Sale on 2025-10-22, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Greenwell Scott A.officerSale15,099 @ $57.91$874K−32.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open31,246Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-05KKR Group Partnership L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale14,669,771 @ $58.45$857.5M−35.1% of holding+21.5%not yet — horizon still open27,154,488Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-05KKR Phoenix Aggregator L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale14,669,771 @ $58.45$857.5M−35.1% of holding+21.5%not yet — horizon still open27,154,488Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-05ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorSale130,000 @ $58.75$7.6M−9.8% of holding+21.5%not yet — horizon still open1,194,503Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-05ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorSale130,000 @ $58.75$7.6M−100.0% of holding+21.5%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-05Phipps Jennifer AofficerSale35,000 @ $58.75$2.1M−12.3% of holding+21.5%not yet — horizon still open250,224Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-05Nalley Lisa AofficerSale35,000 @ $58.75$2.1M−21.0% of holding+21.5%not yet — horizon still open131,948Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04KKR Phoenix Aggregator L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale19,715,000 @ $40.96$807.5M−31.8% of holding+6.7%+31.3%42,227,032Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04KKR Group Partnership L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale19,715,000 @ $40.96$807.5M−31.8% of holding+6.7%+31.3%42,227,032Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorSale220,000 @ $41.15$9.1M−17.7% of holding+6.7%+31.3%1,023,880Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04Phipps Jennifer AofficerSale35,000 @ $41.15$1.4M−15.1% of holding+6.7%+31.3%196,840Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04Nalley Lisa AofficerSale30,000 @ $41.15$1.2M−21.3% of holding+6.7%+31.3%110,594Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-22KKR Phoenix Aggregator L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale14,745,000 @ $28.78$424.4M−19.1% of holding+1.7%+38.7%62,351,337Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-22KKR Group Partnership L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale14,745,000 @ $28.78$424.4M−19.1% of holding+1.7%+38.7%62,351,337Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-22ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorSale235,000 @ $28.78$6.8M−17.2% of holding+1.7%+38.7%1,131,930Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-22Nalley Lisa AofficerSale20,000 @ $28.78$576K−13.2% of holding+1.7%+38.7%131,150Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-24KKR Phoenix Aggregator L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale2,100,000 @ $21.15$44.4M−2.7% of holding−14.3%+52.5%77,096,337Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-24KKR Group Partnership L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale2,100,000 @ $21.15$44.4M−2.7% of holding−14.3%+52.5%77,096,337Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-12KKR Phoenix Aggregator L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale13,288,101 @ $21.15$281.1M−14.3% of holding−10.5%+51.4%79,671,883Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-12KKR Group Partnership L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale13,288,101 @ $21.15$281.1M−14.3% of holding−10.5%+51.4%79,671,883Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-12ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorSale531,840 @ $21.75$11.6M−31.0% of holding−10.5%+51.4%1,184,133Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-12McMaude Michael AofficerSale119,298 @ $21.75$2.6M−36.5% of holding−10.5%+51.4%207,590Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-12Barnes Robert AllenofficerSale30,730 @ $21.75$668K−43.9% of holding−10.5%+51.4%39,269Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-12Phipps Jennifer AofficerSale15,616 @ $21.75$340K−6.4% of holding−10.5%+51.4%230,030Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-12Nalley Lisa AofficerSale14,415 @ $21.75$314K−9.9% of holding−10.5%+51.4%131,150Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc.otherSale12,000,000 @ $21.16$253.9M−51.6% of holding−9.9%−0.6%11,239,996Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

109 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Greenwell Scott A.officerOption exercise11,97346,345Form 4
2026-09-14Greenwell Scott A.officerOption exercise11,97323,947Form 4
2026-07-25ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorWithheld for tax56,3191,138,184Form 4
2026-06-20Greenwell Scott A.officerWithheld for tax2,48734,372Form 4
2026-06-11Shah Nigam H.directorAward / grant4,0134,013Form 4
2026-06-05ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorOption exercise130,0001,324,503Form 4
2026-06-05ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorOption exercise130,000130,000Form 4
2026-06-05Nalley Lisa AofficerOption exercise35,000166,948Form 4
2026-06-05Phipps Jennifer AofficerOption exercise35,000285,224Form 4
2026-06-05Nalley Lisa AofficerOption exercise35,00041,909Form 4
2026-06-05KKR Group Partnership L.P.tenPercentOwnerGift23,2630Form 4
2026-06-05ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorOption exercise130,0001,166,064Form 4
2026-06-05ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorOption exercise130,000404,676Form 4
2026-06-05KKR Phoenix Aggregator L.P.tenPercentOwnerOther acquisition324,60826,829,880Form 4
2026-06-05KKR Phoenix Aggregator L.P.tenPercentOwnerGift36,9270Form 4
2026-06-05KKR Phoenix Aggregator L.P.tenPercentOwnerGift23,2630Form 4
2026-06-05KKR Group Partnership L.P.tenPercentOwnerOther acquisition324,60826,829,880Form 4
2026-06-05KKR Group Partnership L.P.tenPercentOwnerGift36,9270Form 4
2026-06-05Phipps Jennifer AofficerOption exercise35,00055,708Form 4
2026-05-05KIRTLEY OLIVIA FdirectorAward / grant4,98336,997Form 4
2026-05-05Miller Steven BdirectorAward / grant4,98323,106Form 4
2026-05-05Wicks Timothy AdirectorAward / grant4,98325,504Form 4
2026-04-25ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorWithheld for tax16,2221,194,503Form 4
2026-03-30Barnes Robert AllenofficerWithheld for tax6,74825,549Form 4
2026-03-20ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorGift192,704192,704Form 4
2026-03-20ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorGift192,7040Form 4
2026-03-20ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorGift192,704254,651Form 4
2026-03-20ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorGift180,753180,753Form 4
2026-03-20ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorGift180,753447,355Form 4
2026-03-05ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorAward / grant186,8451,210,725Form 4
2026-03-05Nalley Lisa AofficerAward / grant21,354131,948Form 4
2026-03-05Nalley Lisa AofficerAward / grant52,34452,344Form 4
2026-03-05ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorAward / grant458,008458,008Form 4
2026-03-05Phipps Jennifer AofficerAward / grant53,384250,224Form 4
2026-03-05Phipps Jennifer AofficerAward / grant130,860130,860Form 4
2026-03-05Greenwell Scott A.officerAward / grant20,02036,859Form 4
2026-03-05Greenwell Scott A.officerAward / grant49,07349,073Form 4
2026-03-04ROUSSEAU JON BdirectorOption exercise220,0001,243,880Form 4
2026-03-04Phipps Jennifer AofficerOption exercise35,000231,840Form 4
2026-03-04Nalley Lisa AofficerOption exercise30,000140,594Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.