Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.34 · now $1.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BTMD has typically landed between $0.94 and $1.69 — a range of −29.7% to +26.0% from the issuance price $1.34.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,332 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BTMD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.34 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.34 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.22–$1.46
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.942–$1.69
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-05-24 | −66.0% | −66.0% | +0.0% |
| 2022-05-23 | −65.1% | −65.1% | +1.7% |
| 2022-05-20 | −64.3% | −64.3% | +0.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-30 | +70.8% | +0.0% | +75.4% |
| 2026-03-27 | +70.5% | −1.5% | +72.7% |
| 2026-03-26 | +68.1% | −3.7% | +68.9% |
1,332 overlapping windows · 2021-04-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Beer Marc D | director | Purchase | 16,000 @ $1.55 | $25K | +7.2% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 239,744 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Beer Marc D | director | Purchase | 115,950 @ $1.53 | $177K | +107.6% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 223,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | Guines LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 11,677 @ $3.35 | $39K | +0.3% of holding | +7.9% | −33.7% | 4,622,748 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Guines LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 436,037 @ $3.26 | $1.4M | +10.4% of holding | +2.8% | −36.7% | 4,611,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | Guines LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,933 @ $3.30 | $6K | +0.0% of holding | −2.4% | −44.5% | 4,175,034 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Guines LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,801 @ $3.27 | $29K | +0.2% of holding | +1.3% | −45.5% | 4,173,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-17 | Guines LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 6,874 @ $3.29 | $23K | +0.2% of holding | +10.0% | −40.9% | 4,164,300 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-16 | Guines LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,000 @ $3.29 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | +10.8% | −38.8% | 4,157,426 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | Guines LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,532 @ $3.21 | $43K | +0.3% of holding | +11.1% | −41.6% | 4,156,426 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | Guines LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 34,907 @ $3.21 | $112K | +0.8% of holding | +1.3% | −48.0% | 4,142,894 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Guines LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 43,378 @ $3.15 | $137K | +1.1% of holding | −8.5% | −46.0% | 4,107,987 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-04 | Guines LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 23,741 @ $3.24 | $77K | +0.6% of holding | −8.2% | −45.2% | 4,064,609 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | Guines LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,321 @ $3.24 | $24K | +0.2% of holding | −8.3% | −36.7% | 4,040,868 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Guines LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 106,000 @ $3.32 | $352K | +2.7% of holding | +0.9% | −29.7% | 4,033,547 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Beer Marc D | director | Purchase | 107,794 @ $3.87 | $417K | ownership Δ n/a | −8.8% | −32.3% | 107,794 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $3.95 | $197K | +3.4% of holding | −8.8% | −32.3% | 1,523,513 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Cone Stephen Mark | director | Purchase | 38,104 @ $3.88 | $148K | +31.0% of holding | −8.8% | −32.3% | 160,829 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Christensen Bret | director | Purchase | 37,595 @ $3.87 | $145K | ownership Δ n/a | −8.8% | −32.3% | 37,595 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $3.95 | $99K | +7.2% of holding | −8.8% | −32.3% | 370,201 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Guines LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100 @ $3.74 | $374 | +0.0% of holding | −8.8% | −32.3% | 3,927,547 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-14 | Guines LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 106,509 @ $3.50 | $372K | +2.8% of holding | −2.2% | −26.4% | 3,927,447 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Guines LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 750,000 @ $3.22 | $2.4M | +24.4% of holding | +21.8% | −10.2% | 3,820,938 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
39 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Peterson Robert Charles | director | Award / grant | 206,746 | 206,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Christensen Bret | director | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Beer Marc D | director | Award / grant | 114,157 | 114,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Beer Marc D | director | Award / grant | 195,000 | 195,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Barrera Richard R | director | Award / grant | 121,452 | 121,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Award / grant | 35,259 | 81,382 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Jacoby Dana Lynn | director | Award / grant | 37,777 | 59,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Jacoby Dana Lynn | director | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | MORRIS DEBRA L | director | Option exercise | 21,407 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | MORRIS DEBRA L | director | Award / grant | 39,036 | 39,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | MORRIS DEBRA L | director | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Cone Stephen Mark | director | Award / grant | 31,481 | 69,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Cone Stephen Mark | director | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | MORRIS DEBRA L | director | Option exercise | 21,407 | 71,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | MORRIS DEBRA L | director | Option exercise | 21,407 | 71,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Monico Daniel Michael | officer | Award / grant | 88,800 | 88,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Christensen Bret | director | Award / grant | 441,653 | 441,653 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Peterson Robert Charles | director | Award / grant | 107,169 | 107,169 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Barrera Richard R | director | Award / grant | 150,439 | 150,439 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | Cone Stephen Mark | director | Award / grant | 104,547 | 104,547 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | Cone Stephen Mark | director | Award / grant | 17,989 | 38,341 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Award / grant | 20,687 | 46,123 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Award / grant | 104,547 | 104,547 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | HEYER STEVEN J | director | Award / grant | 104,547 | 104,547 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | Jacoby Dana Lynn | director | Option exercise | 12,994 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | Jacoby Dana Lynn | director | Award / grant | 21,587 | 21,587 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | Jacoby Dana Lynn | director | Award / grant | 104,547 | 104,547 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | MORRIS DEBRA L | director | Award / grant | 104,547 | 104,547 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | MORRIS DEBRA L | director | Option exercise | 11,045 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | MORRIS DEBRA L | director | Award / grant | 21,407 | 21,407 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | MORRIS DEBRA L | director | Option exercise | 11,045 | 50,155 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | Jacoby Dana Lynn | director | Option exercise | 12,994 | 63,964 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | Jacoby Dana Lynn | director | Option exercise | 12,994 | 63,964 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | MORRIS DEBRA L | director | Option exercise | 11,045 | 50,155 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Peterson Robert Charles | director | Award / grant | 350,000 | 350,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Beer Marc D | director | Award / grant | 495,600 | 495,600 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Conlon Mary Elizabeth | officer | Award / grant | 178,000 | 178,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Christensen Bret | director | Award / grant | 1,500,000 | 1,500,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.