Issued 2026-09-16 at $43.91 · now $43.91 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BSX has typically landed between $38.93 and $48.17 — a range of −11.3% to +9.7% from the issuance price $43.91.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($43.91) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BSX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $43.91 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $43.91 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $44.41 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $42.53–$46.3
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $38.93–$48.17
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-11 | −45.4% | −45.4% | +1.9% |
| 2008-09-26 | −44.2% | −44.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −39.4% | −39.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +40.6% | −5.2% | +40.6% |
| 2008-11-20 | +37.4% | +0.0% | +42.3% |
| 2020-03-23 | +37.4% | +0.0% | +48.2% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$65.8B
market cap
$2.38
EPS (TTM)
18.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$20.1B
'20'25
Net income$2.9B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr14.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.51
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$98.02
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$65.31
- Analyst target · range $55.00–$120.00$70.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$43.91
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
+6.1%
n=18
Feb
58%
−1.0%
n=19
Mar
63%
+0.2%
n=19
Apr
68%
+2.8%
n=19
May
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.3%
n=19
Jul
53%
+1.9%
n=19
Aug
58%
+1.6%
n=19
Sep
32%
−1.1%
n=19
Oct
39%
−2.6%
n=18
Nov
56%
−1.2%
n=18
Dec
72%
+3.8%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Morano Susan E | director | Purchase | 2,040 @ $49.22 | $100K | +17.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,784 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Habiger David C | director | Purchase | 2,100 @ $47.59 | $100K | +13.9% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,160 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Habiger David C | director | Purchase | 140 @ $48.59 | $7K | +0.9% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Mahoney Michael F | director | Purchase | 186,240 @ $48.33 | $9.0M | +13.3% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,590,024 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Habiger David C | director | Purchase | 1,042 @ $48.07 | $50K | +7.5% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,920 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | LUDWIG EDWARD J | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $45.48 | $227K | +19.7% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,359 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | LUDWIG EDWARD J | director | Purchase | 3,580 @ $56.68 | $203K | +16.4% of holding | −22.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,359 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Habiger David C | director | Purchase | 2,250 @ $55.92 | $126K | +19.3% of holding | −22.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,878 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Habiger David C | director | Purchase | 2,200 @ $56.95 | $125K | +23.3% of holding | −22.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,628 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Mahoney Michael F | director | Sale | 159,701 @ $93.49 | $14.9M | −10.2% of holding | −19.9% | −58.1% | 1,411,735 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Mahoney Michael F | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $94.06 | $113K | −0.1% of holding | −19.9% | −58.1% | 1,571,436 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Butcher Arthur C | director | Sale | 17,313 @ $101.55 | $1.8M | −42.3% of holding | −6.1% | −64.3% | 23,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Zane Ellen M | director | Sale | 12,891 @ $98.28 | $1.3M | −34.8% of holding | −7.2% | −57.0% | 24,134 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-03 | Fitzgerald Joseph Michael | officer | Sale | 29,472 @ $99.14 | $2.9M | −14.2% of holding | −0.1% | −51.2% | 178,342 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Fitzgerald Joseph Michael | officer | Sale | 16,928 @ $99.76 | $1.7M | −7.5% of holding | −0.1% | −51.2% | 207,814 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Fitzgerald Joseph Michael | officer | Sale | 3,600 @ $100.75 | $363K | −1.6% of holding | −0.1% | −51.2% | 224,742 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Zane Ellen M | director | Sale | 2,901 @ $102.24 | $297K | −10.7% of holding | +1.1% | −48.1% | 24,134 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-27 | Zane Ellen M | director | Sale | 9,990 @ $101.13 | $1.0M | −27.0% of holding | +0.4% | −48.6% | 27,035 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Fitzgerald Joseph Michael | officer | Sale | 41,755 @ $98.38 | $4.1M | −19.0% of holding | +3.2% | −33.1% | 178,342 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-01 | Fitzgerald Joseph Michael | officer | Sale | 8,245 @ $98.91 | $815K | −3.6% of holding | +3.2% | −33.1% | 220,097 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-02 | Fitzgerald Joseph Michael | officer | Sale | 28,170 @ $105.85 | $3.0M | −13.6% of holding | −14.8% | −39.9% | 178,342 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Fitzgerald Joseph Michael | officer | Sale | 21,830 @ $104.89 | $2.3M | −9.6% of holding | −14.8% | −39.9% | 206,512 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Fitzgerald Joseph Michael | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $104.63 | $5.2M | −21.9% of holding | −1.8% | −25.3% | 178,342 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Butcher Arthur C | director | Sale | 17,313 @ $104.63 | $1.8M | −42.3% of holding | −1.8% | −25.3% | 23,600 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | FUJIMORI YOSHIAKI | director | Sale | 2,901 @ $106.99 | $310K | −58.2% of holding | −2.4% | −22.0% | 2,081 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | LUDWIG EDWARD J | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $106.03 | $424K | −17.8% of holding | −1.8% | −21.2% | 18,479 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Fitzgerald Joseph Michael | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $106.97 | $5.3M | −21.9% of holding | −2.2% | −20.2% | 178,342 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Fitzgerald Joseph Michael | officer | Sale | 56,372 @ $102.88 | $5.8M | −24.0% of holding | −3.1% | −19.2% | 178,342 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-02 | Mahoney Michael F | director | Sale | 89,921 @ $103.39 | $9.3M | −5.7% of holding | −5.5% | −18.5% | 1,476,882 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Mahoney Michael F | director | Sale | 74,522 @ $104.05 | $7.8M | −4.5% of holding | −5.5% | −18.5% | 1,566,803 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | LUDWIG EDWARD J | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $104.59 | $418K | −15.1% of holding | −2.2% | −19.2% | 22,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Brown Vance R | officer | Sale | 4,826 @ $106.42 | $514K | −13.3% of holding | −5.4% | −21.6% | 31,367 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Sorenson John Bradley | officer | Sale | 4,572 @ $104.54 | $478K | −19.6% of holding | −7.5% | −27.4% | 18,705 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Mahoney Michael F | director | Sale | 91,282 @ $102.13 | $9.3M | −5.6% of holding | −5.2% | −25.0% | 1,535,706 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Mahoney Michael F | director | Sale | 73,161 @ $102.92 | $7.5M | −4.3% of holding | −5.2% | −25.0% | 1,626,988 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Butcher Arthur C | director | Sale | 17,314 @ $102.06 | $1.8M | −43.8% of holding | −5.2% | −25.0% | 22,235 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Brown Vance R | officer | Sale | 4,826 @ $95.09 | $459K | −11.8% of holding | −1.5% | −24.0% | 36,193 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Mahoney Michael F | director | Sale | 164,442 @ $100.01 | $16.4M | −9.3% of holding | +2.4% | −25.2% | 1,594,530 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Brown Vance R | officer | Sale | 4,826 @ $100.85 | $487K | −10.5% of holding | +0.9% | −22.6% | 41,019 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Woodworth Emily | officer | Sale | 482 @ $104.63 | $50K | −52.7% of holding | −1.6% | −8.5% | 432 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Woodworth Emily | officer | Sale | 7,149 @ $104.97 | $750K | −88.7% of holding | +0.2% | −8.6% | 914 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Woodworth Emily | officer | Sale | 9,887 @ $101.13 | $1000K | −85.8% of holding | +2.8% | −7.6% | 1,632 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Mirviss Jeffrey B. | director | Sale | 2,688 @ $104.00 | $280K | −9.4% of holding | +5.6% | −3.6% | 25,766 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-24 | Zane Ellen M | director | Sale | 13,586 @ $104.23 | $1.4M | −28.0% of holding | +2.1% | −7.5% | 34,944 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-24 | Mirviss Jeffrey B. | director | Sale | 4,675 @ $104.25 | $487K | −14.1% of holding | +2.1% | −7.5% | 28,454 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
255 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | O'Connor Padraig Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 567 | 7,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | O'Connor Padraig Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 1,171 | 3,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | O'Connor Padraig Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 1,171 | 8,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Woodworth Emily | officer | Discretionary | 2,930 | 2,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Monson Jonathan | officer | Discretionary | 9,908 | 9,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mahoney Michael F | director | Discretionary | 22,119 | 22,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Fitzgerald Joseph Michael | officer | Discretionary | 64,198 | 64,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Monson Jonathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,010 | 39,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Monson Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 2,087 | 6,263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Monson Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 2,087 | 40,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Mahoney Michael F | director | Gift | 386,755 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Morano Susan E | director | Award / grant | 1,281 | 11,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Weber Christophe Pierre | director | Award / grant | 1,140 | 3,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Weber Christophe Pierre | director | Award / grant | 2,660 | 2,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Smith Cathy R | director | Award / grant | 3,800 | 4,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Smith Cathy R | director | Award / grant | 2,209 | 6,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | LUDWIG EDWARD J | director | Award / grant | 3,800 | 21,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Zane Ellen M | director | Award / grant | 3,800 | 27,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Pegus Cheryl | director | Award / grant | 1,281 | 10,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Pegus Cheryl | director | Award / grant | 3,800 | 9,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Morano Susan E | director | Award / grant | 3,800 | 10,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Habiger David C | director | Award / grant | 3,800 | 9,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | WICHMANN DAVID S | director | Award / grant | 3,800 | 45,382 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Mega Jessica L | director | Award / grant | 3,800 | 12,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Weber Christophe Pierre | director | Award / grant | 1,767 | 2,646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Butcher Arthur C | director | Withheld for tax | 1,007 | 56,887 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | O'Connor Padraig Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 872 | 7,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | O'Connor Padraig Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 1,802 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Butcher Arthur C | director | Option exercise | 2,102 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Butcher Arthur C | director | Option exercise | 2,102 | 57,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | O'Connor Padraig Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 1,802 | 7,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Weber Christophe Pierre | director | Award / grant | 323 | 879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Weber Christophe Pierre | director | Award / grant | 556 | 556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Pegus Cheryl | director | Award / grant | 24 | 5,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Morano Susan E | director | Award / grant | 24 | 6,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Smith Cathy R | director | Award / grant | 556 | 556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Smith Cathy R | director | Award / grant | 323 | 879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Woodworth Emily | officer | Withheld for tax | 372 | 2,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Woodworth Emily | officer | Option exercise | 838 | 1,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Woodworth Emily | officer | Option exercise | 838 | 3,231 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| John Boozman | Senate | sale | 2026-07-13 | 2026-06-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-29 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-11 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.