Issued 2026-09-16 at $54.37 · now $54.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BSVN has typically landed between $48.45 and $63.11 — a range of −10.9% to +16.1% from the issuance price $54.37.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,986 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-09-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($54.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BSVN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $54.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $54.37 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $55.13 (+1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $51.77–$58.49
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $48.45–$63.11
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −69.0% | −69.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-14 | −65.4% | −65.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −64.1% | −68.6% | +0.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-03 | +51.2% | +0.0% | +55.3% |
| 2020-04-13 | +49.4% | −1.7% | +57.5% |
| 2020-04-08 | +48.5% | −7.4% | +48.5% |
1,986 overlapping windows · 2018-09-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Estes Jason E | officer | Sale | 2,077 @ $50.17 | $104K | −2.0% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,840 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-03 | Estes Jason E | officer | Sale | 400 @ $51.25 | $21K | −0.4% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,917 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Travis Thomas L | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $48.01 | $312K | −2.4% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 265,601 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Estes Jason E | officer | Sale | 1,824 @ $48.25 | $88K | −1.8% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,074 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Estes Jason E | officer | Sale | 1,975 @ $49.70 | $98K | −1.9% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,898 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Estes Jason E | officer | Sale | 1,250 @ $49.20 | $62K | −1.2% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Haines Douglas A | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $44.07 | $44K | −5.7% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,647 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Mathews Darrell Lee Jr. | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $43.00 | $43K | −13.3% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,497 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Travis Thomas L | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $40.00 | $240K | −2.2% of holding | +7.9% | +24.1% | 272,101 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-04 | Harris Kelly J | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $45.75 | $206K | −26.1% of holding | −6.8% | −0.3% | 12,756 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Harris Kelly J | officer | Sale | 3,312 @ $48.38 | $160K | −15.9% of holding | −9.0% | −22.0% | 17,583 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Harris Kelly J | officer | Sale | 1,688 @ $49.28 | $83K | −7.5% of holding | −9.7% | −21.0% | 20,895 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Travis Thomas L | director | Sale | 13,084 @ $49.36 | $646K | −4.4% of holding | −5.2% | −19.5% | 286,293 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | Estes Jason E | officer | Sale | 1,587 @ $47.50 | $75K | −2.0% of holding | +2.0% | −14.8% | 76,253 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-24 | Estes Jason E | officer | Sale | 292 @ $48.00 | $14K | −0.4% of holding | +2.0% | −14.8% | 75,961 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-23 | Estes Jason E | officer | Sale | 634 @ $48.50 | $31K | −0.8% of holding | −4.5% | −16.7% | 77,840 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | Estes Jason E | officer | Sale | 818 @ $49.05 | $40K | −1.0% of holding | −8.3% | −16.8% | 78,474 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | Estes Jason E | officer | Sale | 1 @ $49.00 | $49 | −0.0% of holding | −8.3% | −16.8% | 79,292 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Haines Douglas A | officer | Purchase | 1,433 @ $39.91 | $57K | +8.4% of holding | +1.8% | +13.6% | 18,542 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Litchfield Henry | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $41.54 | $208K | −27.2% of holding | +2.3% | +14.3% | 13,375 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
86 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Estes Jason E | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,654 | 106,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Travis Thomas L | director | Withheld for tax | 572 | 283,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Estes Jason E | officer | Withheld for tax | 301 | 107,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Phillips John T | director | Withheld for tax | 156 | 12,293 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Harris Kelly J | officer | Withheld for tax | 116 | 15,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Travis Thomas L | director | Award / grant | 18,581 | 284,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Gray Edward Patrick | director | Award / grant | 866 | 3,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Harris Kelly J | officer | Award / grant | 4,471 | 16,082 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Estes Jason E | officer | Award / grant | 8,198 | 108,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Whitcomb Gary D | director | Award / grant | 823 | 6,742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Dick Teresa L. | director | Award / grant | 769 | 3,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Litchfield Henry | officer | Award / grant | 2,500 | 14,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Haines Douglas A | officer | Award / grant | 2,500 | 19,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Levinson Andrew J | officer | Award / grant | 3,500 | 48,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Phillips John T | director | Award / grant | 5,843 | 12,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mathews Darrell Lee Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 3,500 | 9,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | BUERGLER WILLIAM M | director | Award / grant | 866 | 6,741 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Estes Jason E | officer | Option exercise | 1,250 | 105,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Estes Jason E | officer | Option exercise | 1,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Phillips John T | director | Gift | 500 | 11,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Travis Thomas L | director | Withheld for tax | 6,716 | 278,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Estes Jason E | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,308 | 103,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Phillips John T | director | Withheld for tax | 1,636 | 11,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Levinson Andrew J | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,503 | 45,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Harris Kelly J | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,145 | 11,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Litchfield Henry | officer | Withheld for tax | 821 | 12,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Haines Douglas A | officer | Withheld for tax | 804 | 17,647 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Travis Thomas L | director | Withheld for tax | 1,476 | 284,817 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Estes Jason E | officer | Withheld for tax | 827 | 107,181 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Phillips John T | director | Withheld for tax | 827 | 13,242 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Harris Kelly J | officer | Withheld for tax | 327 | 17,256 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Levinson Andrew J | officer | Withheld for tax | 327 | 46,761 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Litchfield Henry | officer | Withheld for tax | 127 | 13,248 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Haines Douglas A | officer | Withheld for tax | 91 | 18,451 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-30 | Levinson Andrew J | officer | Withheld for tax | 291 | 47,088 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-29 | Phillips John T | director | Award / grant | 1,612 | 14,069 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-29 | Travis Thomas L | director | Award / grant | 4,364 | 299,377 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-29 | Estes Jason E | officer | Award / grant | 2,047 | 78,008 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-29 | Estes Jason E | officer | Award / grant | 30,000 | 108,008 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-29 | Harris Kelly J | officer | Award / grant | 1,191 | 22,583 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.