BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.77 · now $14.77 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BSM has typically landed between $13.34 and $16.57 — a range of −9.7% to +12.2% from the issuance price $14.77.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,841 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-04-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.77) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BSM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.77 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$13.34worst · -9.7%$16.57best · +12.2%
  • now $14.77 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.92 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.32–$15.52
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.34–$16.57
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,841 windows spanning 2015-04-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-19−59.5%−59.5%+1.8%
2020-02-21−58.9%−59.2%+0.0%
2020-02-24−57.0%−58.6%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-30+53.3%+0.0%+54.6%
2020-03-27+38.0%−3.0%+50.0%
2020-03-23+36.9%+0.0%+56.0%

2,841 overlapping windows · 2015-04-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+3.0%
n=11
Feb
45%
−0.0%
n=11
Mar
55%
−2.5%
n=11
Apr
64%
+7.7%
n=11
May
42%
−0.8%
n=12
Jun
50%
−1.1%
n=12
Jul
50%
+0.7%
n=12
Aug
75%
+3.0%
n=12
Sep
42%
+1.0%
n=12
Oct
45%
+0.9%
n=11
Nov
82%
+4.9%
n=11
Dec
18%
−4.8%
n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$15$112026-08-06: 2 insider sales, $28.1M — Whitehead James …2026-06-01: 1 insider purchase, $495K — DeWalch D Mark2026-05-29: 1 insider purchase, $490K — DeWalch D Mark2026-05-28: 1 insider purchase, $497K — DeWalch D Mark2026-05-13: 1 insider purchase, $15K — Carter Thomas L Jr2026-05-12: 1 insider purchase, $258K — Carter Thomas L Jr2026-05-12: 1 insider sale, $150K — Longmaid Ashley J2026-05-11: 1 insider purchase, $337K — Carter Thomas L Jr2026-05-08: 1 insider purchase, $314K — Carter Thomas L Jr2026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $404K — Putman Luke Stevens2026-04-06: 1 insider sale, $425K — Putman Luke Stevens2026-03-05: 1 insider sale, $462K — Putman Luke Stevens2025-09-12: 1 insider purchase, $176K — Carter Thomas L Jr2025-09-11: 1 insider purchase, $16K — Carter Thomas L Jr2025-09-10: 1 insider purchase, $130K — Carter Thomas L Jr2025-09-09: 1 insider purchase, $16K — Carter Thomas L Jr2025-09-08: 1 insider purchase, $161K — Carter Thomas L Jr2025-08-20: 1 insider purchase, $253K — Carter Thomas L Jr2025-08-19: 1 insider purchase, $239K — Carter Thomas L Jr2025-08-12: 1 insider purchase, $114K — Carter Thomas L Jr2025-08: 6 open-market purchases, $1.5M2025-09: 5 open-market purchases, $499K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $462K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $425K2026-05: 6 open-market purchases, $1.9M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $554K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $495K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $28.1M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Whitehead James — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Whitehead James — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector DeWalch D Mark — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DeWalch D Mark — Purchase on 2026-05-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector DeWalch D Mark — Purchase on 2026-05-28, filed same daydirector Carter Thomas L Jr — Purchase on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Carter Thomas L Jr — Purchase on 2026-05-12, filed same daydirector Longmaid Ashley J — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Carter Thomas L Jr — Purchase on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Carter Thomas L Jr — Purchase on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Putman Luke Stevens — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Putman Luke Stevens — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Putman Luke Stevens — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Carter Thomas L Jr — Purchase on 2025-09-12, filed same daydirector Carter Thomas L Jr — Purchase on 2025-09-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Carter Thomas L Jr — Purchase on 2025-09-10, filed same daydirector Carter Thomas L Jr — Purchase on 2025-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Carter Thomas L Jr — Purchase on 2025-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Carter Thomas L Jr — Purchase on 2025-08-20, filed same daydirector Carter Thomas L Jr — Purchase on 2025-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Carter Thomas L Jr — Purchase on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06Whitehead JamesdirectorSale1,628,762 @ $13.21$21.5M−71.6% of holding+3.1%not yet — horizon still open646,058Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-06Whitehead JamesdirectorSale498,343 @ $13.21$6.6M−100.0% of holding+3.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-01DeWalch D MarkdirectorPurchase36,363 @ $13.62$495K+6.1% of holding+1.6%not yet — horizon still open631,248Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-29DeWalch D MarkdirectorPurchase36,363 @ $13.48$490K+6.5% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open594,885Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28DeWalch D MarkdirectorPurchase37,650 @ $13.21$497K+9.6% of holding+6.5%not yet — horizon still open431,495Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-13Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase1,120 @ $13.50$15K+0.0% of holding+3.2%not yet — horizon still open3,682,724Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase19,154 @ $13.48$258K+0.5% of holding+2.3%not yet — horizon still open3,681,604Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-12Longmaid Ashley JdirectorSale11,128 @ $13.45$150K−7.5% of holding+2.3%not yet — horizon still open137,335Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $13.47$337K+0.7% of holding+5.0%not yet — horizon still open3,662,450Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase23,604 @ $13.32$314K+0.7% of holding+3.1%not yet — horizon still open3,637,450Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-05Putman Luke StevensofficerSale29,386 @ $13.75$404K−4.0% of holding−0.9%not yet — horizon still open702,645Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-06Putman Luke StevensofficerSale29,386 @ $14.45$425K−3.9% of holding−15.1%not yet — horizon still open732,031Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-05Putman Luke StevensofficerSale30,276 @ $15.25$462K−3.8% of holding−3.3%−14.6%761,417Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-12Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase14,000 @ $12.59$176K+0.4% of holding−0.2%+26.1%3,512,701Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-11Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase1,300 @ $12.39$16K+0.0% of holding+1.3%+26.4%3,498,701Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-10Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase10,536 @ $12.32$130K+0.3% of holding+3.6%+26.8%3,497,401Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-09Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase1,307 @ $12.07$16K+0.0% of holding+6.6%+27.4%3,486,865Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase13,527 @ $11.90$161K+0.4% of holding+10.0%+27.4%3,485,558Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-20Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase21,000 @ $12.03$253K+0.6% of holding+3.1%+21.8%3,472,031Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $11.97$239K+0.6% of holding+5.2%+24.5%3,451,031Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase9,200 @ $12.36$114K+0.3% of holding−0.6%+17.5%3,431,031Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-11Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $12.10$303K+0.7% of holding−0.4%+19.0%3,421,831Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-08Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase27,500 @ $12.20$336K+0.8% of holding−2.8%+17.3%3,396,831Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-07Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase19,710 @ $12.24$241K+0.6% of holding−5.3%+15.5%3,369,331Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-29Clark Carrie PearsonofficerSale36,900 @ $13.56$500K−18.2% of holding−8.4%−7.8%165,857Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-21Carter Thomas L JrdirectorPurchase14,500 @ $13.52$196K+0.4% of holding−7.2%−8.5%3,349,621Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

101 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18Stuart Alexander D.directorGift15,9002,040,075Form 4
2026-07-31Kyle Jerry V. Jr.directorOther acquisition7,6657,665Form 4
2026-07-31Kyle Jerry V. Jr.directorOther acquisition7,6657,665Form 4
2026-07-02Stuart Alexander D.directorAward / grant1,7002,055,975Form 4
2026-07-02Randall William E.directorAward / grant1,610193,384Form 4
2026-07-02Hamman Anne LenoirdirectorAward / grant1,3428,428Form 4
2026-07-02Kyle Jerry V. Jr.directorAward / grant1,342322,489Form 4
2026-07-02DeWalch D MarkdirectorAward / grant1,342432,837Form 4
2026-04-02Stuart Alexander D.directorAward / grant1,5702,054,275Form 4
2026-04-02Randall William E.directorAward / grant1,488191,774Form 4
2026-04-02Kyle Jerry V. Jr.directorAward / grant1,240321,147Form 4
2026-04-02DeWalch D MarkdirectorAward / grant1,240393,845Form 4
2026-04-02Hamman Anne LenoirdirectorAward / grant4737,086Form 4
2026-03-11Hamman Anne LenoirdirectorAward / grant6,6136,613Form 4
2026-02-24Carter Thomas L JrdirectorWithheld for tax53,6413,613,846Form 4
2026-02-24Putman Luke StevensofficerWithheld for tax25,302791,693Form 4
2026-02-24DeWalch TaylordirectorWithheld for tax478141,369Form 4
2026-02-24Bonner ChrisofficerWithheld for tax43050,678Form 4
2026-02-24Carter FowlerdirectorWithheld for tax325125,379Form 4
2026-02-24Bonner ChrisofficerAward / grant1,44751,108Form 4
2026-02-24Carter Thomas L JrdirectorAward / grant136,3153,667,487Form 4
2026-02-24Putman Luke StevensofficerAward / grant68,853816,995Form 4
2026-02-24DeWalch TaylordirectorAward / grant1,958141,847Form 4
2026-02-24Carter FowlerdirectorAward / grant1,330125,704Form 4
2026-02-04Putman Luke StevensofficerAward / grant65,420748,142Form 4
2026-02-04Carter FowlerdirectorAward / grant80,106124,374Form 4
2026-02-04Phillips Erin LeahofficerAward / grant2,0023,911Form 4
2026-02-04Carter Thomas L JrdirectorAward / grant53,4043,531,172Form 4
2026-02-04Bonner ChrisofficerAward / grant42,72349,661Form 4
2026-02-04DeWalch TaylordirectorAward / grant80,106139,889Form 4
2026-01-13DeWalch D MarkdirectorAward / grant14,255392,605Form 4
2026-01-13Whitehead JamesdirectorAward / grant14,25551,865Form 4
2026-01-13Longmaid Ashley JdirectorAward / grant14,255148,463Form 4
2026-01-13Linn Michael CdirectorAward / grant14,255208,150Form 4
2026-01-13Kyle Jerry V. Jr.directorAward / grant14,255319,907Form 4
2026-01-13BARTH CARIN MARCYdirectorAward / grant14,255142,447Form 4
2026-01-13Randall William E.directorAward / grant14,255190,286Form 4
2026-01-13Stuart Alexander D.directorAward / grant14,2552,052,705Form 4
2026-01-07Carter Thomas L JrdirectorWithheld for tax34,9333,477,768Form 4
2026-01-07Putman Luke StevensofficerWithheld for tax14,920682,722Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.