Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.46 · now $17.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BSET has typically landed between $15.15 and $20.43 — a range of −13.2% to +17.0% from the issuance price $17.46.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BSET has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $17.46 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $17.39 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.29–$18.5
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.15–$20.43
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-01-30 | −69.8% | −72.0% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-02 | −68.3% | −70.9% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-03 | −67.5% | −67.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-13 | +146.7% | +0.0% | +146.7% |
| 2009-03-09 | +134.2% | +0.0% | +149.4% |
| 2009-03-12 | +130.6% | +0.0% | +131.8% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-23 | BASSETT JOHN E III | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $18.56 | $37K | −3.8% of holding | −15.1% | −18.6% | 50,761 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
31 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | BASSETT JOHN E III | officer | Withheld for tax | 280 | 50,972 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Battle Emma S. | director | Award / grant | 2,857 | 13,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | MCDOWELL JOHN WALTER | director | Award / grant | 2,857 | 23,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Wampler William C Jr | director | Award / grant | 2,857 | 30,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Hamlet Virginia W. | director | Award / grant | 2,857 | 20,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Goergen James Edward | director | Award / grant | 2,857 | 2,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | CASHMAN KRISTINA K | director | Award / grant | 2,857 | 24,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | BELK JOHN R | director | Award / grant | 2,857 | 46,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | WARDEN WILLIAM C JR | director | Award / grant | 2,857 | 63,499 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-11 | SPILMAN ROBERT H JR | director | Withheld for tax | 350 | 261,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-11 | Cohenour Bruce | officer | Withheld for tax | 280 | 28,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-11 | Daniel John Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 280 | 54,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-11 | HERVEY JAY R | officer | Withheld for tax | 210 | 10,723 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-23 | BASSETT JOHN E III | officer | Gift | 690 | 52,761 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-12 | MCDOWELL JOHN WALTER | director | Award / grant | 2,503 | 20,966 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-12 | Hamlet Virginia W. | director | Award / grant | 2,503 | 17,623 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-12 | WARDEN WILLIAM C JR | director | Award / grant | 2,503 | 60,642 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-12 | Wampler William C Jr | director | Award / grant | 2,503 | 28,010 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-12 | Battle Emma S. | director | Award / grant | 2,503 | 10,810 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-12 | CASHMAN KRISTINA K | director | Award / grant | 2,503 | 21,270 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-12 | BELK JOHN R | director | Award / grant | 2,503 | 43,550 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-12 | SPILMAN ROBERT H JR | director | Withheld for tax | 350 | 262,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-12 | Cohenour Bruce | officer | Withheld for tax | 280 | 27,415 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-12 | Daniel John Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 280 | 53,481 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-12 | BASSETT JOHN E III | officer | Withheld for tax | 280 | 52,663 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-12 | HERVEY JAY R | officer | Withheld for tax | 210 | 10,995 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-11 | SPILMAN ROBERT H JR | director | Withheld for tax | 350 | 262,650 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-11 | BASSETT JOHN E III | officer | Withheld for tax | 280 | 52,943 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-11 | Cohenour Bruce | officer | Withheld for tax | 280 | 27,695 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-11 | Daniel John Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 280 | 53,761 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-11 | HERVEY JAY R | officer | Withheld for tax | 210 | 11,205 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.