Issued 2026-09-16 at $24.87 · now $24.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BRZE has typically landed between $18.44 and $31.74 — a range of −25.9% to +27.6% from the issuance price $24.87.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,190 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-11-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($24.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BRZE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $24.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $24.87 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $25.05 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.31–$27.78
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.44–$31.74
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,190 windows spanning 2021-11-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-02-10 | −50.1% | −50.1% | +0.0% |
| 2022-02-11 | −48.2% | −49.0% | +0.1% |
| 2022-02-09 | −45.0% | −45.0% | +1.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-23 | +46.4% | +0.0% | +46.4% |
| 2026-07-24 | +44.5% | +0.0% | +44.5% |
| 2022-06-13 | +43.5% | +0.0% | +54.9% |
1,190 overlapping windows · 2021-11-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
−9.1%
n=5
Feb
20%
−8.6%
n=5
Mar
40%
+2.1%
n=5
Apr
0%
−8.8%
n=5
May
60%
+4.0%
n=5
Jun
60%
+0.9%
n=5
Jul
80%
+10.3%
n=5
Aug
60%
+6.8%
n=5
Sep
40%
−13.3%
n=5
Oct
25%
−6.5%
n=4
Nov
75%
+10.6%
n=4
Dec
80%
+5.8%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 32,680 @ $32.28 | $1.1M | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,152,539 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 9,320 @ $33.12 | $309K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,143,219 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | McDonnell Edward M. | officer | Sale | 23,927 @ $31.29 | $749K | −5.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 415,435 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $31.04 | $310K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,185,219 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | McDonnell Edward M. | officer | Sale | 5,805 @ $31.74 | $184K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 409,630 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Malik Astha | director | Sale | 7,530 @ $30.36 | $229K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 326,633 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Malik Astha | director | Sale | 7,794 @ $28.74 | $224K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 334,163 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 6,925 @ $30.37 | $210K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,195,419 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 2,288 @ $28.77 | $66K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,202,344 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Malik Astha | director | Sale | 400 @ $30.75 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 326,233 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 200 @ $30.75 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,195,219 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 35,000 @ $30.03 | $1.1M | −2.8% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,220,416 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Malik Astha | director | Sale | 33,656 @ $27.65 | $931K | −10.8% of holding | −16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 278,138 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 10,148 @ $27.27 | $277K | −0.8% of holding | −16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,255,416 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 17,895 @ $27.03 | $484K | −1.4% of holding | +15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,265,564 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Malik Astha | director | Sale | 50,233 @ $26.38 | $1.3M | −13.8% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 313,001 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 2,472 @ $27.00 | $67K | −0.2% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,283,459 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Malik Astha | director | Sale | 1,207 @ $26.89 | $32K | −0.4% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 311,794 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 26,811 @ $25.39 | $681K | −2.0% of holding | +2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,290,416 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 4,485 @ $27.01 | $121K | −0.3% of holding | +2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,285,931 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Wiseman Susan | officer | Sale | 35,000 @ $20.29 | $710K | −14.3% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 209,424 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Winkles Isabelle | officer | Sale | 8,274 @ $23.31 | $193K | −1.8% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 462,518 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Wiseman Susan | officer | Sale | 4,167 @ $17.03 | $71K | −1.9% of holding | +12.6% | +68.2% | 209,864 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Magnuson William | director | Sale | 26,413 @ $16.93 | $447K | −0.6% of holding | +15.7% | +65.8% | 4,491,098 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Malik Astha | director | Sale | 14,049 @ $16.93 | $238K | −6.4% of holding | +15.7% | +65.8% | 205,289 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Winkles Isabelle | officer | Sale | 12,532 @ $16.93 | $212K | −4.8% of holding | +15.7% | +65.8% | 251,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 7,391 @ $16.93 | $125K | −0.4% of holding | +15.7% | +65.8% | 1,692,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Wiseman Susan | officer | Sale | 5,763 @ $16.93 | $98K | −2.6% of holding | +15.7% | +65.8% | 214,031 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Malik Pankaj | officer | Sale | 2,893 @ $16.93 | $49K | −5.4% of holding | +15.7% | +65.8% | 50,679 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Malik Pankaj | officer | Sale | 5,540 @ $35.76 | $198K | −9.4% of holding | −31.5% | −56.5% | 53,572 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Wiseman Susan | officer | Sale | 3,248 @ $27.35 | $89K | −1.4% of holding | +28.4% | −21.4% | 221,002 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | Wiseman Susan | officer | Sale | 1,208 @ $28.17 | $34K | −0.5% of holding | +28.4% | −21.4% | 219,794 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | Magnuson William | director | Sale | 26,698 @ $26.64 | $711K | −3.7% of holding | +28.4% | −27.2% | 694,746 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Malik Astha | director | Sale | 14,322 @ $26.64 | $382K | −6.1% of holding | +28.4% | −27.2% | 219,338 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Winkles Isabelle | officer | Sale | 12,422 @ $26.64 | $331K | −4.5% of holding | +28.4% | −27.2% | 263,660 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 9,789 @ $26.64 | $261K | −4.8% of holding | +28.4% | −27.2% | 195,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Wiseman Susan | officer | Sale | 5,474 @ $26.64 | $146K | −2.4% of holding | +28.4% | −27.2% | 224,250 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Malik Pankaj | officer | Sale | 3,644 @ $26.64 | $97K | −5.8% of holding | +28.4% | −27.2% | 59,112 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Malik Pankaj | officer | Sale | 4,174 @ $32.77 | $137K | −6.2% of holding | −19.9% | −42.2% | 62,756 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Malik Astha | director | Sale | 3,270 @ $32.51 | $106K | −1.4% of holding | −11.9% | −41.7% | 233,660 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Wiseman Susan | officer | Sale | 4,943 @ $25.14 | $124K | −2.1% of holding | +22.7% | −40.6% | 229,724 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Magnuson William | director | Sale | 24,325 @ $25.94 | $631K | −3.3% of holding | +22.7% | −41.2% | 721,444 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Malik Astha | director | Sale | 13,049 @ $25.94 | $338K | −5.2% of holding | +22.7% | −41.2% | 236,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Winkles Isabelle | officer | Sale | 11,316 @ $25.94 | $294K | −4.1% of holding | +22.7% | −41.2% | 267,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 8,918 @ $25.94 | $231K | −4.2% of holding | +22.7% | −41.2% | 205,106 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Wiseman Susan | officer | Sale | 4,988 @ $25.94 | $129K | −2.1% of holding | +22.7% | −41.2% | 234,667 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Malik Pankaj | officer | Sale | 2,344 @ $25.94 | $61K | −3.4% of holding | +22.7% | −41.2% | 66,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Malik Astha | director | Sale | 9,001 @ $30.01 | $270K | −3.5% of holding | −14.7% | −28.0% | 249,979 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-14 | Wiseman Susan | officer | Sale | 4,786 @ $27.08 | $130K | −2.0% of holding | −13.7% | −0.2% | 239,655 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Magnuson William | director | Sale | 25,089 @ $35.88 | $900K | −3.3% of holding | −24.8% | −36.5% | 745,769 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Malik Astha | director | Sale | 13,460 @ $35.88 | $483K | −5.0% of holding | −24.8% | −36.5% | 258,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Braze, Inc. | officer | Sale | 13,460 @ $35.88 | $483K | −5.0% of holding | −24.8% | −36.5% | 258,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Winkles Isabelle | officer | Sale | 11,672 @ $35.88 | $419K | −4.0% of holding | −24.8% | −36.5% | 278,281 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Sale | 9,197 @ $35.88 | $330K | −4.1% of holding | −24.8% | −36.5% | 214,024 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Kleeger Myles | officer | Sale | 9,189 @ $35.88 | $330K | −5.4% of holding | −24.8% | −36.5% | 159,693 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Wiseman Susan | officer | Sale | 5,143 @ $35.88 | $185K | −2.1% of holding | −24.8% | −36.5% | 243,856 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Malik Pankaj | officer | Sale | 3,405 @ $35.88 | $122K | −4.7% of holding | −24.8% | −36.5% | 69,274 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Wiseman Susan | officer | Sale | 4,167 @ $30.98 | $129K | −1.6% of holding | −9.1% | −40.2% | 248,999 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
242 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | McDonnell Edward M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 92,970 | 439,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Magnuson William | director | Withheld for tax | 46,421 | 4,844,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Malik Astha | director | Withheld for tax | 21,277 | 341,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,784 | 1,204,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Malik Pankaj | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,121 | 86,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | FERNANDEZ PHILLIP M | director | Award / grant | 7,753 | 28,055 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Award / grant | 7,753 | 75,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Machado Fernando | director | Award / grant | 7,753 | 21,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wassenaar Yvonne | director | Award / grant | 7,753 | 18,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Levy Tara Walpert | director | Award / grant | 7,753 | 101,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Agrawal Neeraj | director | Award / grant | 7,753 | 202,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Gift | 150,000 | 221,436 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Gift | 500,000 | 1,317,227 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Gift | 350,000 | 350,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Agrawal Neeraj | director | Gift | 500,000 | 388,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Lal Christopher M. | officer | Award / grant | 230,184 | 230,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Magnuson William | director | Withheld for tax | 70,837 | 4,890,781 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Winkles Isabelle | officer | Withheld for tax | 33,309 | 429,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Malik Astha | director | Withheld for tax | 30,263 | 363,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,402 | 1,817,227 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Wiseman Susan | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,951 | 198,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | McDonnell Edward M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,376 | 532,332 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Malik Pankaj | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,121 | 88,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | McDonnell Edward M. | officer | Award / grant | 102,854 | 536,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Wiseman Susan | officer | Award / grant | 34,560 | 244,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Winkles Isabelle | officer | Award / grant | 135,180 | 470,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 89,630 | 1,838,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Magnuson William | director | Award / grant | 176,650 | 4,667,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Magnuson William | director | Award / grant | 293,870 | 4,961,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Malik Astha | director | Award / grant | 70,660 | 275,949 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Malik Astha | director | Award / grant | 117,548 | 393,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Malik Pankaj | officer | Award / grant | 40,298 | 90,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Winkles Isabelle | officer | Award / grant | 84,484 | 335,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 56,066 | 1,748,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Magnuson William | director | Conversion | 3,822,765 | 4,517,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Levy Tara Walpert | director | Conversion | 62,562 | 62,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Levy Tara Walpert | director | Conversion | 62,562 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Conversion | 1,505,007 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Other acquisition | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Hyman Jonathan | officer | Other acquisition | 175,213 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.