BRSPBrightSpire Capital, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.29 · now $4.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BRSP has typically landed between $3.74 and $4.91 — a range of −12.9% to +14.5% from the issuance price $4.29.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,146 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-02-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BRSP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$3.74worst · -12.9%$4.91best · +14.5%
  • now $4.29 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.25 (-0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.01–$4.49
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.74–$4.91
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,146 windows spanning 2018-02-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−79.1%−79.1%+2.5%
2020-02-19−77.9%−77.9%+4.3%
2020-02-21−77.5%−79.6%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-07+78.2%−14.9%+78.2%
2020-05-13+77.1%−1.4%+106.5%
2020-05-15+73.9%+0.0%+109.5%

2,146 overlapping windows · 2018-02-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+3.0%
n=8
Feb
50%
+1.0%
n=8
Mar
33%
−10.9%
n=9
Apr
56%
−0.1%
n=9
May
67%
+1.8%
n=9
Jun
67%
+6.5%
n=9
Jul
78%
+2.3%
n=9
Aug
33%
−2.8%
n=9
Sep
22%
−4.7%
n=9
Oct
63%
+3.1%
n=8
Nov
50%
+4.1%
n=8
Dec
50%
+0.7%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$6$4↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

36 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-20SCHWARTZ VERNON BdirectorAward / grant22,085139,580Form 4
2026-05-20RICE CATHERINEdirectorAward / grant22,085140,367Form 4
2026-05-20Long Catherine F.directorAward / grant22,08592,210Form 4
2026-05-20Diamond Kim SdirectorAward / grant22,08593,357Form 4
2026-04-09Mazzei MichaeldirectorOther acquisition10,1431,510,764Form 4
2026-03-16Mazzei MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax260,3811,520,907Form 4
2026-03-16Witt Andrew ElmoreofficerWithheld for tax131,414712,076Form 4
2026-03-16Palame David AofficerWithheld for tax81,376479,487Form 4
2026-03-16Saracino Frank VofficerWithheld for tax80,423455,543Form 4
2026-03-16Witt Andrew ElmoreofficerAward / grant144,405724,033Form 4
2026-03-16Witt Andrew ElmoreofficerAward / grant119,457843,490Form 4
2026-03-16Mazzei MichaeldirectorAward / grant238,9141,781,288Form 4
2026-03-16Palame David AofficerAward / grant87,934483,270Form 4
2026-03-16Palame David AofficerAward / grant77,593560,863Form 4
2026-03-16Saracino Frank VofficerAward / grant85,741460,309Form 4
2026-03-16Mazzei MichaeldirectorAward / grant270,7591,542,374Form 4
2026-03-16Saracino Frank VofficerAward / grant75,657535,966Form 4
2026-03-16Mazzei MichaeldirectorAward / grant307,0401,271,615Form 4
2026-02-11Mazzei MichaeldirectorOther acquisition369,724964,575Form 4
2025-05-19Long Catherine F.directorAward / grant18,58870,125Form 4
2025-05-19Diamond Kim SdirectorAward / grant18,58871,272Form 4
2025-05-19RICE CATHERINEdirectorAward / grant18,588118,282Form 4
2025-05-19Westerfield John EdirectorAward / grant18,588111,282Form 4
2025-05-19SCHWARTZ VERNON BdirectorAward / grant18,588117,495Form 4
2025-03-17Mazzei MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax209,8201,334,299Form 4
2025-03-17Witt Andrew ElmoreofficerWithheld for tax86,686579,628Form 4
2025-03-17Palame David AofficerWithheld for tax63,504395,336Form 4
2025-03-17Saracino Frank VofficerWithheld for tax54,217374,568Form 4
2025-03-17Witt Andrew ElmoreofficerAward / grant47,921533,202Form 4
2025-03-17Witt Andrew ElmoreofficerAward / grant133,112666,314Form 4
2025-03-17Mazzei MichaeldirectorAward / grant249,5851,544,119Form 4
2025-03-17Saracino Frank VofficerAward / grant31,199349,750Form 4
2025-03-17Saracino Frank VofficerAward / grant79,035428,785Form 4
2025-03-17Palame David AofficerAward / grant29,951377,783Form 4
2025-03-17Palame David AofficerAward / grant81,057458,840Form 4
2025-03-17Mazzei MichaeldirectorAward / grant116,4731,294,534Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.