BRSLBrightstar Lottery PLCConsumer Cyclical · Gambling, Resorts & Casinosas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.53 · now $10.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BRSL has typically landed between $8.82 and $12.31 — a range of −16.3% to +16.9% from the issuance price $10.53.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BRSL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$8.82worst · -16.3%$12.31best · +16.9%
  • now $10.53 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.34 (-1.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.74–$10.95
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.82–$12.31
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−73.5%−73.5%+0.0%
2020-02-19−70.8%−73.2%+0.0%
2020-02-20−67.8%−73.2%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+76.7%+0.0%+86.8%
2020-05-06+68.8%−1.8%+68.8%
2020-10-28+68.4%+0.0%+71.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
25%
−2.6%
n=20
Feb
60%
−0.3%
n=20
Mar
35%
−5.1%
n=20
Apr
60%
+3.4%
n=20
May
40%
+0.5%
n=20
Jun
40%
−0.1%
n=20
Jul
70%
+2.4%
n=20
Aug
50%
+1.1%
n=20
Sep
50%
+1.4%
n=20
Oct
40%
−0.7%
n=20
Nov
50%
+3.2%
n=20
Dec
65%
+2.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$17$10↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

147 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-14Sadusky Vincent LdirectorWithheld for tax19,905436,646Form 4
2026-07-14Chiara MassimilianodirectorWithheld for tax11,511290,502Form 4
2026-07-14Sala MarcodirectorWithheld for tax10,15952,153Form 4
2026-07-14Spears Christopher ClarkofficerWithheld for tax4,381121,156Form 4
2026-07-14Tasso MarcoofficerWithheld for tax1,41655,726Form 4
2026-07-14Morgan David ThomasofficerWithheld for tax1,07427,015Form 4
2026-07-14Spears Christopher ClarkofficerOption exercise10,344125,537Form 4
2026-07-14Spears Christopher ClarkofficerOption exercise10,34420,690Form 4
2026-07-14Chiara MassimilianodirectorOption exercise23,881302,013Form 4
2026-07-14Chiara MassimilianodirectorOption exercise23,88147,760Form 4
2026-07-14Sadusky Vincent LdirectorOption exercise47,005456,551Form 4
2026-07-14Sadusky Vincent LdirectorOption exercise47,00594,010Form 4
2026-07-14Chiara MassimilianodirectorOption exercise23,881302,013Form 4
2026-07-14Chiara MassimilianodirectorOption exercise23,88147,760Form 4
2026-07-14Morgan David ThomasofficerOption exercise3,53828,089Form 4
2026-07-14Morgan David ThomasofficerOption exercise3,5387,078Form 4
2026-07-14Sadusky Vincent LdirectorOption exercise47,005456,551Form 4
2026-07-14Sadusky Vincent LdirectorOption exercise47,00594,010Form 4
2026-07-14Sala MarcodirectorOption exercise22,31162,312Form 4
2026-07-14Sala MarcodirectorOption exercise22,31144,622Form 4
2026-07-14Spears Christopher ClarkofficerOption exercise10,344125,537Form 4
2026-07-14Spears Christopher ClarkofficerOption exercise10,34420,690Form 4
2026-07-14Tasso MarcoofficerOption exercise3,29157,142Form 4
2026-07-14Sala MarcodirectorOption exercise22,31162,312Form 4
2026-07-14Tasso MarcoofficerOption exercise3,2916,584Form 4
2026-07-14Sala MarcodirectorOption exercise22,31144,622Form 4
2026-07-14Tasso MarcoofficerOption exercise3,29157,142Form 4
2026-07-14Tasso MarcoofficerOption exercise3,2916,584Form 4
2026-07-14Morgan David ThomasofficerOption exercise3,53828,089Form 4
2026-07-14Morgan David ThomasofficerOption exercise3,5387,078Form 4
2026-05-12Tondato Da Ruos Gian MariodirectorWithheld for tax3,431107,627Form 4
2026-05-12Dessy AlbertodirectorWithheld for tax2,39398,458Form 4
2026-05-12Hunter Ashley MaurenedirectorWithheld for tax2,23038,143Form 4
2026-05-12McGregor Heather JanedirectorWithheld for tax2,07365,500Form 4
2026-05-12Drago EnricodirectorWithheld for tax1,89062,186Form 4
2026-05-12MCCANN JAMES FdirectorWithheld for tax1,594118,168Form 4
2026-05-12Ravich Samantha FaydirectorWithheld for tax1,56467,594Form 4
2026-05-12Pellicioli LorenzodirectorWithheld for tax1,45092,749Form 4
2026-05-12Pinelli MariadirectorWithheld for tax62541,279Form 4
2026-05-12Zappia MariangeladirectorWithheld for tax3992,914Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.