BROBrown & Brown, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Brokersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $65.88 · now $65.88 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BRO has typically landed between $58.68 and $73.18 — a range of −10.9% to +11.1% from the issuance price $65.88.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($65.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BRO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $65.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$58.68worst · -10.9%$73.18best · +11.1%
  • now $65.88 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $66.61 (+1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $63.51–$69.72
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $58.68–$73.18
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−34.5%−34.5%+0.0%
2020-02-20−30.7%−30.7%+0.0%
2011-07-08−28.7%−28.7%+0.0%
3 best
2011-09-28+27.6%−4.9%+27.6%
2011-10-03+26.7%+0.0%+34.2%
2011-09-23+26.6%−3.2%+26.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$22.9B
market cap
$3.31
EPS (TTM)
20.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-27
next earnings
Revenue$6.0B
'20'25
Net income$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr17.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr8.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.63
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $65.88$46.38$160.10
  • DCF (intrinsic)$152.26
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$54.22
  • Analyst target · range $55.00–$55.00$55.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$65.88

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.6%
n=18
Feb
63%
+1.4%
n=19
Mar
58%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
53%
+1.8%
n=19
May
58%
+1.1%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.6%
n=19
Jul
74%
+1.5%
n=19
Aug
74%
+2.7%
n=19
Sep
26%
−1.9%
n=19
Oct
39%
+1.2%
n=18
Nov
78%
+2.6%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$96$542026-06-09: 1 insider purchase, $50K — JOHNSON JOIA M2026-05-05: 1 insider purchase, $114K — PROCTOR H PALMER JR2025-08: 2 open-market purchases, $341K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $114K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $50K↑ buys↓ salesdirector JOHNSON JOIA M — Purchase on 2026-06-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector PROCTOR H PALMER JR — Purchase on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-09JOHNSON JOIA MdirectorPurchase860 @ $58.05$50Kownership Δ n/a+11.8%not yet — horizon still open860Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05PROCTOR H PALMER JRdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $57.10$114K+4.4% of holding−4.5%not yet — horizon still open47,621Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-08KRUMP PAUL JdirectorPurchase2,678 @ $93.31$250K+100.1% of holding−2.1%−35.8%5,353Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-06Masojada Bronislaw EdmunddirectorPurchase1,000 @ $91.44$91K+25.0% of holding+1.1%−28.1%5,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

87 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-06GELLERSTEDT LAWRENCE L IIIdirectorAward / grant2,43423,241Form 4
2026-05-06Reilly WendelldirectorAward / grant2,43442,731Form 4
2026-05-06Savio Kathleen A.directorAward / grant2,4345,109Form 4
2026-05-06Masojada Bronislaw EdmunddirectorAward / grant2,4345,109Form 4
2026-05-06JENNINGS TONIdirectorAward / grant2,43457,859Form 4
2026-05-06PATEL JAYMIN BdirectorAward / grant2,4346,957Form 4
2026-05-06PROCTOR H PALMER JRdirectorAward / grant2,43450,055Form 4
2026-05-06KRUMP PAUL JdirectorAward / grant2,4347,787Form 4
2026-05-06Main Timothy R.M.directorAward / grant2,43436,023Form 4
2026-05-06Hunt James SdirectorAward / grant2,43427,109Form 4
2026-05-06Hoepner Theodore JdirectorAward / grant2,43472,185Form 4
2026-05-06JOHNSON JOIA MdirectorAward / grant2,4342,434Form 4
2026-02-26Watts R. AndrewofficerAward / grant6,06790,227Form 4
2026-02-26Brown P BarrettofficerAward / grant13,00460,537Form 4
2026-02-26Hearn Stephen PatrickofficerAward / grant7,13710,385Form 4
2026-02-26Boyd Stephen MofficerAward / grant10,40454,858Form 4
2026-02-26Boyd Stephen MofficerAward / grant5,71060,568Form 4
2026-02-26Gallagher Paul M.officerAward / grant1,0703,952Form 4
2026-02-26Watts R. AndrewofficerAward / grant26,01084,160Form 4
2026-02-26Walker Chris LofficerAward / grant13,00462,145Form 4
2026-02-26Walker Chris LofficerAward / grant2,14164,286Form 4
2026-02-26PENNY JEROME SCOTTofficerAward / grant13,00459,484Form 4
2026-02-26PENNY JEROME SCOTTofficerAward / grant2,67662,160Form 4
2026-02-26Turpin JulieofficerAward / grant11,70438,973Form 4
2026-02-26Turpin JulieofficerAward / grant2,85541,828Form 4
2026-02-26BROWN J POWELLdirectorAward / grant78,030186,193Form 4
2026-02-25BROWN J POWELLdirectorAward / grant17,844204,037Form 4
2026-02-23BROWN J POWELLdirectorWithheld for tax44,7372,881Form 4
2026-02-23Watts R. AndrewofficerWithheld for tax11,646118,960Form 4
2026-02-23Brown P BarrettofficerWithheld for tax8,4401,361,925Form 4
2026-02-23Boyd Stephen MofficerWithheld for tax7,71283,081Form 4
2026-02-23PENNY JEROME SCOTTofficerWithheld for tax7,058272,674Form 4
2026-02-23Turpin JulieofficerWithheld for tax4,41841,036Form 4
2026-02-23Walker Chris LofficerWithheld for tax3,031163,120Form 4
2025-12-31Brown P BarrettofficerGift127,0341,827,556Form 4
2025-12-31BROWN J POWELLdirectorGift127,0341,827,556Form 4
2025-12-31BROWN HYATT JdirectorGift127,0341,827,556Form 4
2025-12-19Watts R. AndrewofficerGift3,59298,397Form 4
2025-12-19Watts R. AndrewofficerGift4703,198Form 4
2025-12-17Boyd Stephen MofficerGift1,50075,636Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-05-062026-04-17$1–15K
Jared MoskowitzHousesale2026-04-302026-03-23$1–15K
Jared MoskowitzHousesale2026-04-302026-03-23$1–15K
Jared MoskowitzHousesale2026-04-302026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-03-102026-02-06$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.