BRLT · TickerCove

BRLTBrilliant Earth Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Luxury Goodsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.38 · now $1.38 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BRLT has typically landed between $1.00 and $1.86 — a range of −27.6% to +34.7% from the issuance price $1.38.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,229 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-09-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.38) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$1.38 · 20% of range

$1.03 low$2.8 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−4.4%

typical move · IQR 23.2%

−27.6%worst (p90)+34.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BRLT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.38 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $1.38 (+0.0%)
typical $1.32 (-4.4%)
middle 50% $1.16–$1.48
90% range $0.9996–$1.86

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,229 windows spanning 2021-09-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-04-19	−54.7%	−54.7%	+0.0%
2022-04-21	−52.7%	−54.2%	+0.1%
2022-04-18	−52.1%	−52.1%	+1.9%
3 best
2025-08-06	+126.8%	+0.0%	+137.4%
2025-08-05	+122.5%	−4.7%	+126.4%
2025-08-04	+121.2%	−6.8%	+121.2%

1,229 overlapping windows · 2021-09-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

20%

−10.9%

n=5

Feb

20%

−11.6%

n=5

Mar

60%

−1.3%

n=5

Apr

40%

−4.6%

n=5

May

−18.4%

n=5

Jun

40%

+0.2%

n=5

Jul

80%

+9.1%

n=5

Aug

60%

+27.2%

n=5

Sep

20%

−11.1%

n=5

Oct

40%

+3.6%

n=5

Nov

40%

−3.6%

n=5

Dec

60%

+9.7%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-19	Gerstein Beth Tamara	director	Purchase	3,203 @ $1.26	$4K	+47.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	10,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-19	Grossberg Eric Scott	director	Purchase	381 @ $1.26	$480	+4.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	10,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-18	Grossberg Eric Scott	director	Purchase	9,619 @ $1.27	$12K	ownership Δ n/a	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	9,619	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18	Gerstein Beth Tamara	director	Purchase	6,797 @ $1.25	$8K	ownership Δ n/a	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	6,797	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17	Dziesietnik Sharon	officer	Sale	10,124 @ $1.27	$13K	−1.9% of holding	+15.5%	not yet — horizon still open	532,448	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-13	Kuo Jeffrey Chuenhong	officer	Purchase	10,000 @ $1.36	$14K	+1.5% of holding	+5.9%	not yet — horizon still open	693,130	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	50,000 @ $1.29	$64K	−100.0% of holding	+14.7%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	TURNER GAVIN	director	Sale	50,000 @ $1.29	$64K	−100.0% of holding	+14.7%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22	Harris Jennifer Noel	director	Sale	18,336 @ $1.03	$19K	−7.9% of holding	+12.9%	not yet — horizon still open	213,966	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-18	Harris Jennifer Noel	director	Sale	20,020 @ $1.07	$21K	−7.9% of holding	+14.1%	not yet — horizon still open	232,302	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-18	Dziesietnik Sharon	officer	Sale	10,124 @ $1.15	$12K	−1.8% of holding	−2.1%	not yet — horizon still open	542,572	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18	Dziesietnik Sharon	officer	Sale	19,687 @ $1.37	$27K	−4.2% of holding	−6.6%	−23.1%	446,736	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-17	Dziesietnik Sharon	officer	Sale	9,191 @ $1.99	$18K	−1.9% of holding	−11.0%	−49.6%	466,423	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-18	Harris Jennifer Noel	director	Sale	5,317 @ $1.35	$7K	−6.0% of holding	+4.4%	+33.3%	83,913	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-17	Harris Jennifer Noel	director	Sale	7,103 @ $1.35	$10K	−7.4% of holding	+5.8%	+43.0%	89,230	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-16	Harris Jennifer Noel	director	Sale	2,962 @ $1.38	$4K	−3.0% of holding	+2.9%	+41.8%	96,333	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16	Dziesietnik Sharon	officer	Sale	9,190 @ $1.40	$13K	−1.9% of holding	−3.1%	+63.8%	475,614	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-13	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2,700 @ $1.85	$5K	−100.0% of holding	−0.2%	+73.1%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13	TURNER GAVIN	director	Sale	2,700 @ $1.85	$5K	−100.0% of holding	−0.2%	+73.1%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-18	Kuo Jeffrey Chuenhong	officer	Sale	31,708 @ $1.52	$48K	−6.6% of holding	+9.6%	+46.3%	449,981	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18	Dziesietnik Sharon	officer	Sale	20,792 @ $1.50	$31K	−5.3% of holding	+9.6%	+46.3%	371,329	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-13	Dziesietnik Sharon	officer	Sale	5,324 @ $1.96	$10K	−1.3% of holding	−9.9%	−32.7%	392,121	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

91 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-24	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-24	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-24	TURNER GAVIN	director	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-24	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-24	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-24	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-24	TURNER GAVIN	director	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-24	TURNER GAVIN	director	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-24	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-24	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-24	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-24	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-24	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-24	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-24	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-24	TURNER GAVIN	director	Other acquisition	16,014	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	TURNER GAVIN	director	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	TURNER GAVIN	director	Conversion	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-08-10	TURNER GAVIN	director	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	MAINSAIL GP III, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-08-10	TURNER GAVIN	director	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4
2026-08-10	TURNER GAVIN	director	Conversion	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-08-10	TURNER GAVIN	director	Conversion	50,000	31,848,071	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i