BRCB · TickerCove

BRCBBlack Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.90 · now $6.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BRCB has typically landed between $4.48 and $8.61 — a range of −35.1% to +24.7% from the issuance price $6.90.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

233 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-09-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$6.9 · 3% of range

$6.19 low$27.84 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Distribution ranges onlyiThis name has too little trading history to publish a calibrated probability, so we show its distribution ranges only — no directional call. Its record is still building.

No directional probability — ranges below.

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−5.0%

typical move · IQR 24.5%

−35.1%worst (p90)+24.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BRCB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $6.9 (+0.0%)
typical $6.56 (-5.0%)
middle 50% $5.71–$7.4
90% range $4.48–$8.61

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 233 windows spanning 2025-09-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-04-21	−54.7%	−54.7%	+0.0%
2026-04-20	−53.9%	−53.9%	+0.0%
2026-04-17	−53.7%	−53.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-06-09	+31.5%	+0.0%	+35.1%
2026-06-08	+31.0%	+0.0%	+36.7%
2026-08-07	+29.7%	−6.0%	+30.3%

233 overlapping windows · 2025-09-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~1 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

−33.0%

n=1

Feb

−10.5%

n=1

Mar

−3.1%

n=1

Apr

−5.0%

n=1

May

−32.2%

n=1

Jun

−0.4%

n=1

Jul

−2.8%

n=1

Aug

100%

+18.5%

n=1

Sep

−27.7%

n=1

Oct

100%

+7.5%

n=1

Nov

−11.3%

n=1

Dec

−2.2%

n=1

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-22	Geyer Clay Howard	officer	Purchase	925 @ $6.86	$6K	+1.6% of holding	+12.0%	not yet — horizon still open	58,505	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-22	Geyer Clay Howard	officer	Purchase	8 @ $6.90	$55	+0.0% of holding	+12.0%	not yet — horizon still open	58,513	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-21	Geyer Clay Howard	officer	Purchase	45,080 @ $6.51	$293K	+360.6% of holding	+9.2%	not yet — horizon still open	57,580	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20	Schmidt Michael Ryan	officer	Purchase	7,100 @ $6.98	$50K	ownership Δ n/a	+10.0%	not yet — horizon still open	7,100	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20	Wegener-Beyer Jessica Michele	officer	Purchase	3,098 @ $6.46	$20K	ownership Δ n/a	+10.0%	not yet — horizon still open	3,098	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Purchase	12,042,712 @ $5.35	$64.4M	+153.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	19,915,304	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Purchase	1,600,000 @ $5.35	$8.6M	+506.3% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	1,916,012	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Hernandez Jeffrey Robert	director	Sale	5,809,391	—	−100.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Purchase	12,042,712	—	+153.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	19,915,304	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Viking Cake BR, LLC	other	Sale	5,809,391	—	−100.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Viking Cake BR, LLC	other	Sale	5,809,391	—	−100.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Hernandez Jeffrey Robert	director	Sale	5,809,391	—	−100.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Hernandez Jeffrey Robert	director	Sale	5,809,391	—	−100.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Brand Daniel Jordan	director	Sale	5,809,391	—	−100.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Brand Daniel Jordan	director	Sale	5,809,391	—	−100.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Brand Daniel Jordan	director	Sale	5,809,391	—	−100.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Brand Daniel Jordan	director	Sale	5,809,391	—	−100.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Hernandez Jeffrey Robert	director	Sale	5,809,391	—	−100.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Viking Cake BR, LLC	other	Sale	5,809,391	—	−100.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Viking Cake BR, LLC	other	Sale	5,809,391	—	−100.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Viking Cake BR, LLC	other	Sale	5,809,391	—	−100.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Viking Cake BR, LLC	other	Sale	5,809,391	—	−100.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Purchase	12,042,712	—	+153.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	19,915,304	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Purchase	12,042,712	—	+153.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	19,915,304	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Purchase	12,042,712	—	+153.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	19,915,304	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Purchase	12,042,712	—	+153.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	19,915,304	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Purchase	12,042,712	—	+153.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	19,915,304	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Purchase	12,042,712	—	+153.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	19,915,304	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-15	Viking Cake BR, LLC	other	Purchase	3,118,938 @ $20.00	$62.4M	+36.7% of holding	−11.5%	−40.4%	11,618,781	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-15	Brand Daniel Jordan	director	Purchase	3,118,938 @ $20.00	$62.4M	+36.7% of holding	−11.5%	−40.4%	11,618,781	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-15	Spellmeyer Jacob Virgil	director	Purchase	3,118,938 @ $20.00	$62.4M	+36.7% of holding	−11.5%	−40.4%	11,618,781	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-15	Pereboom Bryan Douglas	director	Purchase	3,118,938 @ $20.00	$62.4M	+36.7% of holding	−11.5%	−40.4%	11,618,781	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-15	Hernandez Jeffrey Robert	director	Purchase	3,118,938 @ $20.00	$62.4M	+36.7% of holding	−11.5%	−40.4%	11,618,781	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

69 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-27	CASHMAN KRISTINA K	director	Award / grant	10,739	13,551	Form 4
2026-05-27	Brand Daniel Jordan	director	Award / grant	10,739	13,551	Form 4
2026-05-27	Braithwaite Andrew Robert	director	Award / grant	8,949	11,761	Form 4
2026-05-27	FEDERICO RICHARD L	director	Award / grant	10,739	13,551	Form 4
2026-05-27	Hernandez Jeffrey Robert	director	Award / grant	10,739	13,551	Form 4
2026-05-27	Goldsmith-Grover Sarah	director	Award / grant	8,949	11,761	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Other acquisition	119,892	19,795,412	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Conversion	119,892	2,035,904	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Conversion	119,892	19,795,412	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Other acquisition	119,892	19,795,412	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Conversion	119,892	2,035,904	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Conversion	119,892	19,795,412	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Other acquisition	119,892	19,795,412	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Conversion	119,892	2,035,904	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Conversion	119,892	19,795,412	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Other acquisition	119,892	19,795,412	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Conversion	119,892	2,035,904	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Conversion	119,892	19,795,412	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Other acquisition	119,892	19,795,412	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Conversion	119,892	2,035,904	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Conversion	119,892	19,795,412	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Other acquisition	119,892	19,795,412	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Conversion	119,892	2,035,904	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Conversion	119,892	19,795,412	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Other acquisition	119,892	19,795,412	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Conversion	119,892	2,035,904	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cynosure Group, LLC	director	Conversion	119,892	19,795,412	Form 4
2026-05-14	Vingo Jon Patrick Jr.	officer	Award / grant	95,240	95,240	Form 4
2026-05-14	Vingo Jon Patrick Jr.	officer	Award / grant	52,374	52,418	Form 4
2026-05-14	Vingo Jon Patrick Jr.	officer	Award / grant	52,374	52,418	Form 4
2026-03-20	Brand Daniel Jordan	director	Other acquisition	5,809,390	5,809,391	Form 4
2026-03-20	Spellmeyer Jacob Virgil	director	Other acquisition	5,809,390	0	Form 4
2026-03-20	Viking Cake BR, LLC	other	Other acquisition	5,809,390	5,809,391	Form 4
2026-03-20	Hernandez Jeffrey Robert	director	Other acquisition	5,809,390	5,809,391	Form 4
2026-03-20	Pereboom Bryan Douglas	director	Other acquisition	5,809,390	29,046	Form 4
2026-03-20	Viking Cake Fuel, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	5,809,390	5,809,391	Form 4
2026-03-11	Wegener-Beyer Jessica Michele	officer	Gift	27,544	0	Form 4
2026-03-11	Wegener-Beyer Jessica Michele	officer	Gift	27,544	27,544	Form 4
2025-12-28	Spellmeyer Jacob Virgil	director	Gift	99,062	99,062	Form 4
2025-12-28	Spellmeyer Jacob Virgil	director	Gift	99,062	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i