Issued 2026-09-16 at $167.09 · now $167.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BR has typically landed between $150.18 and $185.32 — a range of −10.1% to +10.9% from the issuance price $167.09.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($167.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $167.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $167.09 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $168.46 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $161.21–$175.71
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $150.18–$185.32
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −39.0% | −39.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −36.9% | −36.9% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-11 | −36.2% | −36.2% | +1.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-04 | +30.1% | +0.0% | +30.1% |
| 2020-03-23 | +29.8% | +0.0% | +30.5% |
| 2008-12-02 | +28.7% | −0.8% | +28.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$17.2B
market cap
$9.34
EPS (TTM)
15.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$6.9B
'20'25
Net income$840M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr31.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.30
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$216.12
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$319.47
- Analyst target · range $165.00–$257.00$207.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$167.09
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+0.3%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.0%
n=19
Mar
63%
+2.1%
n=19
Apr
58%
+2.4%
n=19
May
74%
+1.5%
n=19
Jun
63%
+0.6%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.8%
n=19
Aug
74%
+5.1%
n=19
Sep
26%
−2.7%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.2%
n=18
Nov
61%
+1.4%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.4%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Jarkowski Hope M. | officer | Sale | 1,966 @ $155.00 | $305K | −99.9% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Gokey Timothy C | director | Purchase | 5,300 @ $194.49 | $1.0M | +3.9% of holding | −16.6% | −26.3% | 142,876 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Duelks Robert N | director | Sale | 253 @ $192.60 | $49K | −1.2% of holding | +4.5% | −16.0% | 20,815 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Carey Thomas P | officer | Sale | 5,548 @ $229.26 | $1.3M | −47.9% of holding | −3.8% | −42.2% | 6,026 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Carey Thomas P | officer | Sale | 3,516 @ $229.26 | $806K | −23.3% of holding | −3.8% | −42.2% | 11,574 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Carey Thomas P | officer | Sale | 1,150 @ $229.26 | $264K | −7.1% of holding | −3.8% | −42.2% | 15,090 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | PERRY CHRISTOPHER JOHN | director | Sale | 3,984 @ $226.00 | $900K | −8.2% of holding | −1.3% | −45.8% | 44,829 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-25 | Gokey Timothy C | director | Sale | 5,674 @ $258.37 | $1.5M | −3.8% of holding | −10.9% | −38.9% | 143,285 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Gokey Timothy C | director | Sale | 5,675 @ $260.87 | $1.5M | −3.7% of holding | −7.8% | −38.2% | 148,959 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Gokey Timothy C | director | Sale | 11,000 @ $259.29 | $2.9M | −6.6% of holding | −8.0% | −39.4% | 154,634 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-14 | Gokey Timothy C | director | Sale | 84,571 @ $259.53 | $21.9M | −33.8% of holding | −5.7% | −38.8% | 165,634 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Gokey Timothy C | director | Sale | 39,251 @ $262.46 | $10.3M | −20.7% of holding | −5.3% | −40.6% | 150,374 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | PERRY CHRISTOPHER JOHN | director | Sale | 7,036 @ $262.72 | $1.8M | −12.6% of holding | −4.9% | −43.9% | 48,813 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-06 | DESCHUTTER DOUGLAS RICHARD | officer | Sale | 4,903 @ $245.76 | $1.2M | −23.2% of holding | −6.8% | −19.8% | 16,264 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-06 | Duelks Robert N | director | Sale | 500 @ $245.15 | $123K | −2.5% of holding | −6.8% | −19.8% | 19,858 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-04 | Markus Maura A. | director | Sale | 3,556 @ $243.08 | $864K | −10.3% of holding | −5.6% | −20.3% | 30,892 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | DESCHUTTER DOUGLAS RICHARD | officer | Sale | 5,056 @ $239.55 | $1.2M | −19.3% of holding | −3.8% | −18.8% | 21,167 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Carter Pamela L | director | Sale | 2,806 @ $242.23 | $680K | −27.9% of holding | −2.7% | −18.6% | 7,242 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-20 | Carter Pamela L | director | Sale | 2,023 @ $242.23 | $490K | −16.8% of holding | −2.7% | −18.6% | 10,048 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-15 | Jarkowski Hope M. | officer | Sale | 1,069 @ $240.99 | $258K | −99.9% of holding | −2.3% | −19.9% | 1 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Carey Thomas P | officer | Sale | 3,607 @ $237.26 | $856K | −37.2% of holding | −1.4% | −22.4% | 6,077 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | Jarkowski Hope M. | officer | Sale | 1,068 @ $235.22 | $251K | −49.9% of holding | −2.9% | −28.2% | 1,070 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-07 | Stingi Richard John | officer | Sale | 800 @ $234.81 | $188K | −12.7% of holding | −2.9% | −28.2% | 5,509 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-02 | Gokey Timothy C | director | Sale | 11,724 @ $245.07 | $2.9M | −7.6% of holding | −5.8% | −23.6% | 143,064 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Gokey Timothy C | director | Sale | 48,974 @ $235.18 | $11.5M | −22.4% of holding | +5.0% | −7.3% | 169,788 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Gokey Timothy C | director | Sale | 34,101 @ $235.90 | $8.0M | −13.5% of holding | +5.0% | −7.3% | 218,762 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Gokey Timothy C | director | Sale | 12,881 @ $235.18 | $3.0M | −4.8% of holding | +5.0% | −7.3% | 252,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | PERRY CHRISTOPHER JOHN | director | Sale | 8,495 @ $235.23 | $2.0M | −13.9% of holding | +3.9% | −7.3% | 52,524 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | PERRY CHRISTOPHER JOHN | director | Sale | 7,021 @ $235.23 | $1.7M | −10.3% of holding | +3.9% | −7.3% | 61,019 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | PERRY CHRISTOPHER JOHN | director | Sale | 6,841 @ $235.23 | $1.6M | −9.1% of holding | +3.9% | −7.3% | 68,040 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Duelks Robert N | director | Sale | 485 @ $237.93 | $115K | −8.9% of holding | +5.2% | −2.5% | 4,960 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Duelks Robert N | director | Sale | 3,141 @ $237.15 | $745K | −10.6% of holding | +5.8% | +0.6% | 26,510 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-26 | Duelks Robert N | director | Sale | 2,690 @ $237.15 | $638K | −8.3% of holding | +5.8% | +0.6% | 29,651 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-26 | Duelks Robert N | director | Sale | 2,574 @ $237.15 | $610K | −7.4% of holding | +5.8% | +0.6% | 32,341 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-06 | keller brett | director | Sale | 3,566 @ $240.40 | $857K | −18.7% of holding | +4.4% | +5.9% | 15,536 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-06 | keller brett | director | Sale | 1,876 @ $240.40 | $451K | −8.9% of holding | +4.4% | +5.9% | 19,102 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-04 | Matlin Laura | officer | Sale | 514 @ $241.60 | $124K | −7.2% of holding | +3.7% | +6.0% | 6,602 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
226 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | PERRY CHRISTOPHER JOHN | director | Award / grant | 9,308 | 54,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Stingi Richard John | officer | Award / grant | 2,172 | 7,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Carey Thomas P | officer | Award / grant | 5,275 | 11,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | DESCHUTTER DOUGLAS RICHARD | officer | Award / grant | 1,783 | 18,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Ghei Ashima | officer | Award / grant | 466 | 6,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Gokey Timothy C | director | Award / grant | 33,265 | 176,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Mosconi Patricia Ann | director | Award / grant | 2 | 640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | MURRAY EILEEN K | director | Award / grant | 18 | 5,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Zavery Amit | director | Award / grant | 33 | 8,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Zavery Amit | director | Award / grant | 27 | 9,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nazareth Annette L. | director | Award / grant | 21 | 9,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | MURRAY EILEEN K | director | Award / grant | 20 | 5,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nazareth Annette L. | director | Award / grant | 18 | 9,614 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Markus Maura A. | director | Award / grant | 36 | 32,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Markus Maura A. | director | Award / grant | 98 | 32,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | FLOWERS MELVIN L | director | Award / grant | 18 | 2,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Duelks Robert N | director | Award / grant | 143 | 21,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Mosconi Patricia Ann | director | Award / grant | 1 | 641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-27 | Ghei Ashima | officer | Withheld for tax | 905 | 5,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-27 | Ghei Ashima | officer | Option exercise | 2,509 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-27 | Ghei Ashima | officer | Option exercise | 2,509 | 6,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Nazareth Annette L. | director | Award / grant | 206 | 9,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Zavery Amit | director | Award / grant | 206 | 8,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Markus Maura A. | director | Award / grant | 239 | 32,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Mosconi Patricia Ann | director | Award / grant | 206 | 638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | MURRAY EILEEN K | director | Award / grant | 445 | 5,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Zavery Amit | director | Award / grant | 27 | 8,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Duelks Robert N | director | Award / grant | 127 | 20,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | FLOWERS MELVIN L | director | Award / grant | 16 | 2,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | MURRAY EILEEN K | director | Award / grant | 16 | 5,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | MURRAY EILEEN K | director | Award / grant | 13 | 5,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Markus Maura A. | director | Award / grant | 87 | 32,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Markus Maura A. | director | Award / grant | 29 | 32,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | keller brett | director | Award / grant | 54 | 16,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | keller brett | director | Award / grant | 26 | 16,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Zavery Amit | director | Award / grant | 24 | 8,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Nazareth Annette L. | director | Award / grant | 17 | 9,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Nazareth Annette L. | director | Award / grant | 16 | 9,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Mosconi Patricia Ann | director | Award / grant | 2 | 432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | MURRAY EILEEN K | director | Award / grant | 384 | 5,246 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Rick Larsen | House | sale | 2026-04-15 | 2026-04-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.