Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.66 · now $34.66 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BOX has typically landed between $29.99 and $39.90 — a range of −13.5% to +15.1% from the issuance price $34.66.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,908 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-01-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BOX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $34.66 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $35.06 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $33.24–$36.88
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.99–$39.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,908 windows spanning 2015-01-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-14 | −41.9% | −42.6% | +6.3% |
| 2020-02-13 | −41.6% | −41.6% | +8.2% |
| 2020-02-18 | −40.6% | −43.8% | +4.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-16 | +68.3% | +0.0% | +69.2% |
| 2020-03-17 | +66.8% | +0.0% | +67.2% |
| 2020-03-18 | +60.7% | +0.0% | +60.7% |
2,908 overlapping windows · 2015-01-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
+0.9%
n=11
Feb
50%
+2.0%
n=12
Mar
50%
−0.6%
n=12
Apr
67%
+1.9%
n=12
May
75%
+6.1%
n=12
Jun
33%
−1.8%
n=12
Jul
50%
+1.0%
n=12
Aug
67%
+1.6%
n=12
Sep
25%
−1.7%
n=12
Oct
45%
−0.1%
n=11
Nov
64%
+3.6%
n=11
Dec
36%
−1.4%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | EVAN DANA L | director | Sale | 6,158 @ $35.00 | $216K | −5.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,739 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Sale | 17,000 @ $34.52 | $587K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,320,075 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Levie Aaron | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $34.24 | $514K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,859,673 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Berkovitch Eli | officer | Sale | 3,850 @ $35.99 | $139K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 105,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 5,834 @ $32.31 | $189K | −1.1% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 513,382 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-21 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 5,834 @ $30.13 | $176K | −1.1% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 519,216 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Sale | 17,000 @ $29.05 | $494K | −1.3% of holding | +14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,337,075 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-08 | Berkovitch Eli | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $28.95 | $52K | −1.6% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,254 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Mayer Bethany | director | Sale | 2,735 @ $26.11 | $71K | −13.7% of holding | +17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,228 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Mayer Bethany | director | Sale | 1,325 @ $25.78 | $34K | −6.2% of holding | +17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,963 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 5,834 @ $24.97 | $146K | −1.1% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 525,050 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Levie Aaron | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $24.32 | $365K | −0.5% of holding | +16.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,874,673 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Berkovitch Eli | officer | Sale | 2,700 @ $25.32 | $68K | −2.3% of holding | +23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,979 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Sale | 17,000 @ $26.00 | $442K | −1.2% of holding | +7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,364,049 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-10 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 6,528 @ $26.17 | $171K | −1.2% of holding | +7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 552,211 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | Berkovitch Eli | officer | Sale | 6,300 @ $25.36 | $160K | −5.2% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,679 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Sale | 21,972 @ $24.91 | $547K | −1.6% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,382,797 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Sale | 1,748 @ $25.64 | $45K | −0.1% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,381,049 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 12,470 @ $25.17 | $314K | −2.2% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 558,739 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 5,942 @ $25.00 | $149K | −1.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 571,209 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Sale | 10,280 @ $22.09 | $227K | −0.8% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,314,971 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Berkovitch Eli | officer | Sale | 24,500 @ $23.85 | $584K | −20.4% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,516 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-07 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 6,528 @ $24.07 | $157K | −1.3% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 487,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | EVAN DANA L | director | Sale | 17,034 @ $24.24 | $413K | −13.0% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,525 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 5,942 @ $24.10 | $143K | −1.1% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 518,842 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Sale | 17,000 @ $24.72 | $420K | −1.3% of holding | −10.3% | +25.7% | 1,294,195 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Levie Aaron | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $24.72 | $371K | −0.5% of holding | −10.3% | +25.7% | 2,907,030 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 4,612 @ $25.78 | $119K | −1.0% of holding | −4.7% | +22.0% | 465,219 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Sale | 17,000 @ $24.75 | $421K | −1.3% of holding | +4.6% | +19.9% | 1,311,195 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 4,612 @ $26.04 | $120K | −1.0% of holding | −12.7% | +0.4% | 469,831 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Sale | 17,000 @ $29.57 | $503K | −1.3% of holding | −17.3% | −7.9% | 1,328,195 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 4,612 @ $29.84 | $138K | −1.0% of holding | −12.7% | −20.5% | 474,443 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Berkovitch Eli | officer | Sale | 5,163 @ $29.96 | $155K | −4.0% of holding | −12.6% | −25.5% | 123,684 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Sale | 17,000 @ $30.97 | $526K | −1.2% of holding | −4.1% | −24.9% | 1,420,013 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Levie Aaron | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $30.53 | $458K | −0.5% of holding | −4.1% | −24.9% | 2,922,030 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | LAZAR JACK R | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $31.77 | $79K | −9.0% of holding | −9.8% | −25.2% | 25,355 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Sale | 17,000 @ $31.36 | $533K | −1.2% of holding | −5.8% | −35.3% | 1,437,013 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 4,612 @ $31.35 | $145K | −0.9% of holding | −5.8% | −35.3% | 497,639 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 4,612 @ $33.09 | $153K | −0.9% of holding | −11.7% | −35.9% | 502,251 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-10 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Sale | 17,000 @ $33.05 | $562K | −1.2% of holding | −7.4% | −39.2% | 1,454,013 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-10 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 4,612 @ $33.10 | $153K | −0.9% of holding | −7.4% | −39.2% | 506,863 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | Berkovitch Eli | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $32.77 | $115K | −2.6% of holding | −5.6% | −33.7% | 128,847 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Tiramani Galiano Paolo | director | Sale | 6,250,000 @ $0.80 | $5.0M | −0.8% of holding | −5.0% | −25.6% | 773,139,600 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | LAZAR JACK R | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $32.20 | $161K | −15.2% of holding | −2.6% | −24.0% | 27,855 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Sale | 51,000 @ $32.83 | $1.7M | −3.3% of holding | −2.2% | −27.2% | 1,480,732 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Levie Aaron | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $32.81 | $492K | −0.5% of holding | −2.2% | −27.2% | 2,937,030 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 2,013 @ $32.00 | $64K | −0.4% of holding | +3.4% | −32.5% | 530,060 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 2,013 @ $32.50 | $65K | −0.4% of holding | −5.9% | −29.6% | 532,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | Levie Aaron | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $33.35 | $500K | −0.5% of holding | −6.0% | −21.8% | 2,952,030 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | Berkovitch Eli | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $33.34 | $100K | −2.2% of holding | −6.0% | −21.8% | 133,867 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | EVAN DANA L | director | Sale | 7,590 @ $33.51 | $254K | −6.2% of holding | −6.7% | −25.4% | 115,725 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Mayer Bethany | director | Sale | 5,123 @ $34.06 | $175K | −25.1% of holding | −7.5% | −22.3% | 15,284 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 2,013 @ $34.60 | $70K | −0.4% of holding | −8.3% | −26.8% | 534,086 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Sale | 13,000 @ $37.23 | $484K | −0.9% of holding | −14.8% | −28.1% | 1,507,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 1,329 @ $37.43 | $50K | −0.2% of holding | −14.8% | −28.1% | 554,682 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Berkovitch Eli | officer | Sale | 5,924 @ $37.70 | $223K | −4.1% of holding | −16.0% | −38.5% | 138,770 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | LEVIN DANIEL J | director | Sale | 37,499 @ $36.74 | $1.4M | −100.0% of holding | −13.5% | −36.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Sale | 13,000 @ $31.52 | $410K | −0.8% of holding | +9.2% | −19.8% | 1,520,550 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 3,434 @ $31.54 | $108K | −0.6% of holding | +9.2% | −19.8% | 556,011 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Sale | 2,105 @ $29.52 | $62K | −0.4% of holding | −6.3% | −18.5% | 561,132 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
101 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Mayer Bethany | director | Award / grant | 12,266 | 21,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Walia Amit | director | Award / grant | 8,372 | 43,321 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | LEVIN DANIEL J | director | Award / grant | 8,372 | 66,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Murphy Stephen Francis | director | Award / grant | 8,372 | 30,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | LAZAR JACK R | director | Award / grant | 8,372 | 33,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Barsamian Sue | director | Award / grant | 8,372 | 69,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | EVAN DANA L | director | Award / grant | 8,372 | 121,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Withheld for tax | 21,327 | 530,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,974 | 1,354,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Berkovitch Eli | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,925 | 111,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Levie Aaron | director | Gift | 18,520 | 2,889,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Davis Morris A. | director | Award / grant | 312,500 | 312,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Davis Morris A. | director | Award / grant | 312,500 | 312,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,316 | 1,404,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Withheld for tax | 2,180 | 577,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Berkovitch Eli | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,152 | 121,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Levie Aaron | director | Withheld for tax | 791 | 2,908,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Levie Aaron | director | Award / grant | 1,954 | 2,908,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Award / grant | 4,343 | 579,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Award / grant | 4,614 | 1,407,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Berkovitch Eli | officer | Award / grant | 6,115 | 124,131 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Berkovitch Eli | officer | Award / grant | 22,500 | 118,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Award / grant | 87,500 | 574,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Award / grant | 87,500 | 1,402,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | EVAN DANA L | director | Option exercise | 17,034 | 130,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | EVAN DANA L | director | Option exercise | 17,034 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,543 | 1,325,251 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Withheld for tax | 24,826 | 494,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,542 | 1,351,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Withheld for tax | 13,267 | 524,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Berkovitch Eli | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,155 | 120,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Award / grant | 73,372 | 1,367,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Award / grant | 72,832 | 538,051 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-24 | EVAN DANA L | director | Gift | 1,000 | 114,725 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-24 | EVAN DANA L | director | Gift | 1,200 | 113,525 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-20 | Nottebohm Olivia | director | Withheld for tax | 18,584 | 479,055 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-20 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,818 | 1,345,195 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-20 | Berkovitch Eli | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,903 | 121,781 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Smith Dylan C | officer | Gift | 65,000 | 1,355,013 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Tiramani Paolo | director | Gift | 12,500,000 | 25,000,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.