BOOTBoot Barn Holdings, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $122.75 · now $122.75 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BOOT has typically landed between $98.87 and $149.86 — a range of −19.5% to +22.1% from the issuance price $122.75.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,965 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-10-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($122.75) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BOOT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $122.75 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$98.87worst · -19.5%$149.86best · +22.1%
  • now $122.75 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $123.25 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $112.26–$134.23
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $98.87–$149.86
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,965 windows spanning 2014-10-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−68.1%−68.1%+2.5%
2020-02-21−63.3%−67.9%+0.0%
2020-02-19−62.8%−68.5%+1.2%
3 best
2017-11-02+82.7%+0.0%+82.7%
2025-04-21+82.7%+0.0%+82.7%
2017-10-31+80.0%−1.5%+80.0%

2,965 overlapping windows · 2014-10-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
58%
+2.1%
n=12
Feb
58%
+6.9%
n=12
Mar
42%
−7.4%
n=12
Apr
58%
+6.5%
n=12
May
42%
+4.0%
n=12
Jun
58%
+6.7%
n=12
Jul
58%
+3.2%
n=12
Aug
83%
+6.8%
n=12
Sep
25%
−3.5%
n=12
Oct
45%
−2.1%
n=11
Nov
83%
+15.2%
n=12
Dec
58%
−1.3%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$208$1232026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $37K — Kosoff Jonathon David2026-02-25: 1 insider sale, $198K — Morris Brenda I2025-12-01: 1 insider sale, $230K — Burt Gene Eddie2025-11-03: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — STARRETT PETER2025-08-26: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Grijalva Laurie Marie2025-08-21: 1 insider sale, $255K — Morris Brenda I2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.5M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $1.2M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $230K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $198K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $37K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Kosoff Jonathon David — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed same daydirector Morris Brenda I — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Burt Gene Eddie — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed same daydirector STARRETT PETER — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Grijalva Laurie Marie — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed same daydirector Morris Brenda I — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-26Kosoff Jonathon DavidofficerSale230 @ $160.31$37K−48.2% of holding+8.7%not yet — horizon still open247Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-25Morris Brenda IdirectorSale1,000 @ $197.74$198K−23.0% of holding−16.0%−30.3%3,344Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-01Burt Gene EddiedirectorSale1,200 @ $191.41$230K−26.4% of holding−10.1%−24.0%3,338Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-03STARRETT PETERdirectorSale6,498 @ $190.00$1.2M−40.4% of holding+5.1%−18.1%9,599Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-26Grijalva Laurie MarieofficerSale7,487 @ $172.14$1.3M−51.3% of holding−4.4%+6.0%7,106Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-21Morris Brenda IdirectorSale1,500 @ $170.00$255K−25.7% of holding−1.5%+6.9%4,344Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-23Love Michael AofficerSale2,614 @ $155.14$406K−41.7% of holding−8.9%+2.7%3,652Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-23Love Michael AofficerSale1,540 @ $155.68$240K−42.2% of holding−8.9%+2.7%2,112Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-22Grijalva Laurie MarieofficerSale2,438 @ $160.67$392K−14.3% of holding−7.7%−4.1%14,593Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-02Hazen JohndirectorSale5,310 @ $152.95$812K−53.7% of holding−8.4%+1.7%4,584Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-02Hazen JohndirectorSale614 @ $154.06$95K−13.4% of holding−8.4%+1.7%3,970Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-02Hazen JohndirectorSale354 @ $151.47$54K−3.5% of holding−8.4%+1.7%9,894Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-02Hazen JohndirectorSale33 @ $154.65$5K−0.8% of holding−8.4%+1.7%3,937Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

59 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-20Grijalva Laurie MarieofficerWithheld for tax6,89216,401Form 4
2026-05-20Watkins James MofficerWithheld for tax6,89225,831Form 4
2026-05-20Hazen JohndirectorWithheld for tax6,89217,369Form 4
2026-05-20Love Michael AofficerWithheld for tax5,33013,547Form 4
2026-05-20Love Michael AofficerAward / grant13,54418,877Form 4
2026-05-20Grijalva Laurie MarieofficerAward / grant13,54423,293Form 4
2026-05-20Hazen JohndirectorAward / grant13,54424,261Form 4
2026-05-20Watkins James MofficerAward / grant13,54432,723Form 4
2026-05-19Hazen JohndirectorWithheld for tax1,04810,717Form 4
2026-05-19Grijalva Laurie MarieofficerWithheld for tax1,0489,749Form 4
2026-05-19Love Michael AofficerWithheld for tax8105,333Form 4
2026-05-18Morris Brenda IdirectorAward / grant1,0281,028Form 4
2026-05-18Laube LisadirectorAward / grant1,0281,028Form 4
2026-05-18Bruzzo ChrisdirectorAward / grant1,0281,028Form 4
2026-05-18Burt Gene EddiedirectorAward / grant1,0281,028Form 4
2026-05-18Watkins James MofficerAward / grant4,60712,166Form 4
2026-05-18Grijalva Laurie MarieofficerAward / grant4,07610,221Form 4
2026-05-18MACDONALD ANNEdirectorAward / grant1,0281,028Form 4
2026-05-18STARRETT PETERdirectorAward / grant1,02813,157Form 4
2026-05-18Weston Bradley MorgandirectorAward / grant1,0281,028Form 4
2026-05-18Hazen JohndirectorAward / grant16,83434,727Form 4
2026-05-18Kosoff Jonathon DavidofficerAward / grant3,0134,502Form 4
2026-05-18Love Michael AofficerAward / grant4,07610,221Form 4
2026-05-16Hazen JohndirectorWithheld for tax3,0559,707Form 4
2026-05-16Grijalva Laurie MarieofficerWithheld for tax1,2338,739Form 4
2026-05-16Love Michael AofficerWithheld for tax8934,085Form 4
2026-05-16Kosoff Jonathon DavidofficerWithheld for tax268477Form 4
2025-11-20Watkins James MofficerGift2,00014,096Form 4
2025-11-03Watkins James MofficerWithheld for tax17616,096Form 4
2025-05-19Hazen JohndirectorWithheld for tax1,0466,759Form 4
2025-05-19Watkins James MofficerWithheld for tax73715,926Form 4
2025-05-19Grijalva Laurie MarieofficerWithheld for tax73717,031Form 4
2025-05-19Love Michael AofficerWithheld for tax5026,266Form 4
2025-05-16Hazen JohndirectorWithheld for tax8345,746Form 4
2025-05-16Grijalva Laurie MarieofficerWithheld for tax58815,709Form 4
2025-05-16Watkins James MofficerWithheld for tax58814,604Form 4
2025-05-16Love Michael AofficerWithheld for tax4004,709Form 4
2025-05-16Watkins James MofficerAward / grant4,14812,989Form 4
2025-05-16Hazen JohndirectorAward / grant13,08225,955Form 4
2025-05-16Grijalva Laurie MarieofficerAward / grant3,67011,070Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.