BOLDBoundless Bio, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.82 · now $2.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BOLD has typically landed between $1.94 and $3.77 — a range of −31.2% to +33.6% from the issuance price $2.82.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

597 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-03-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BOLD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.94worst · -31.2%$3.77best · +33.6%
  • now $2.82 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.72 (-3.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.4–$3.03
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.94–$3.77
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 597 windows spanning 2024-03-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-05-24−64.6%−64.6%+0.0%
2024-05-23−57.9%−57.9%+7.5%
2024-05-21−56.6%−56.6%+2.9%
3 best
2026-06-22+80.0%+0.0%+85.7%
2026-05-21+79.3%−4.8%+79.3%
2026-06-10+78.3%+0.0%+88.4%

597 overlapping windows · 2024-03-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
0%
−12.2%
n=2
Feb
0%
−7.9%
n=2
Mar
0%
−13.5%
n=2
Apr
67%
+6.3%
n=3
May
0%
−15.4%
n=3
Jun
33%
+2.2%
n=3
Jul
33%
+5.8%
n=3
Aug
33%
+0.2%
n=3
Sep
67%
+2.0%
n=3
Oct
50%
−1.0%
n=2
Nov
0%
−11.5%
n=2
Dec
100%
+4.4%
n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$3$12026-08-26: 1 insider sale, $54K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-21: 1 insider purchase, $7K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-20: 1 insider purchase, $4K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-17: 1 insider purchase, $647 — TANG KEVIN2026-07-16: 1 insider purchase, $45K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-15: 1 insider purchase, $4K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-14: 1 insider purchase, $107K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-13: 1 insider purchase, $117K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-10: 1 insider purchase, $105K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-09: 1 insider purchase, $17 — TANG KEVIN2026-07-08: 1 insider purchase, $35K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-07: 1 insider purchase, $39K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-06: 1 insider purchase, $67K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-02: 1 insider purchase, $24K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-01: 1 insider purchase, $178K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-01: 2 insider sales, $80K — ARCH Venture Fund IX, L.P., CRANDELL KEITH2026-06-30: 2 insider purchases, $66K — TANG KEVIN …2026-06-29: 2 insider purchases, $160K — TANG KEVIN …2026-06-26: 2 insider purchases, $192K — TANG KEVIN …2026-06-25: 2 insider purchases, $363K — TANG KEVIN …2026-06: 8 open-market purchases, $781K2026-07: 14 open-market purchases, $734K2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $80K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $54K↑ buys↓ salesdirector TANG KEVIN — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-21, filed same daydirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-17, filed 4 days after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-16, filed same daydirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-13, filed same daydirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-10, filed 3 days after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-09, filed 4 days after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-08, filed same daydirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-02, filed same daydirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-01, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner ARCH Venture Fund IX, L.P. — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 5 days after the tradedirector CRANDELL KEITH — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 5 days after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-06-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-06-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-06-29, filed same daydirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-06-29, filed same daydirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-06-26, filed 3 days after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-06-26, filed 3 days after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-06-25, filed 4 days after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-06-25, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-26TANG KEVINdirectorSale18,300 @ $2.97$54K−0.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open2,840,635Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-21TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase2,975 @ $2.44$7K+0.1% of holding+12.5%not yet — horizon still open2,858,935Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-20TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase1,623 @ $2.44$4K+0.1% of holding+13.8%not yet — horizon still open2,855,960Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-17TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase265 @ $2.44$647+0.0% of holding+10.2%not yet — horizon still open2,854,337Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-16TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase18,491 @ $2.44$45K+0.7% of holding+10.2%not yet — horizon still open2,854,072Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-15TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase1,600 @ $2.44$4K+0.1% of holding+9.5%not yet — horizon still open2,835,581Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-14TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase43,878 @ $2.43$107K+1.6% of holding+10.3%not yet — horizon still open2,833,981Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase48,211 @ $2.42$117K+1.8% of holding+9.8%not yet — horizon still open2,790,103Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-10TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase43,367 @ $2.43$105K+1.6% of holding+14.6%not yet — horizon still open2,741,892Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-09TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase7 @ $2.48$17+0.0% of holding+12.3%not yet — horizon still open2,698,525Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-08TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase14,338 @ $2.46$35K+0.5% of holding+12.8%not yet — horizon still open2,698,518Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-07TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase15,810 @ $2.48$39K+0.6% of holding+9.0%not yet — horizon still open2,684,180Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-06TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase27,062 @ $2.49$67K+1.0% of holding+5.7%not yet — horizon still open2,668,370Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-02TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase9,821 @ $2.49$24K+0.4% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open2,641,308Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-01TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase71,612 @ $2.49$178K+2.8% of holding+0.6%not yet — horizon still open2,631,487Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-01ARCH Venture Fund IX, L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale16,000 @ $2.49$40K−100.0% of holding+0.6%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-07-01CRANDELL KEITHdirectorSale16,000 @ $2.49$40K−100.0% of holding+0.6%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-30TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase25,930 @ $2.54$66K+1.0% of holding+0.7%not yet — horizon still open2,559,775Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-30TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase100 @ $2.50$250+0.0% of holding+0.7%not yet — horizon still open2,559,875Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase63,985 @ $2.47$158K+2.6% of holding+2.8%not yet — horizon still open2,533,068Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-29TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase777 @ $2.48$2K+0.0% of holding+2.8%not yet — horizon still open2,533,845Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-26TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase75,047 @ $2.55$191K+3.1% of holding−5.1%not yet — horizon still open2,468,949Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-26TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase134 @ $2.54$340+0.0% of holding−5.1%not yet — horizon still open2,469,083Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-25TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase145,880 @ $2.48$362K+6.5% of holding−1.8%not yet — horizon still open2,393,392Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-25TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase510 @ $2.56$1K+0.0% of holding−1.8%not yet — horizon still open2,393,902Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

24 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01ARCH Venture Fund IX, L.P.tenPercentOwnerOption exercise16,00016,000Form 4
2026-07-01CRANDELL KEITHdirectorOption exercise16,00016,000Form 4
2026-07-01CRANDELL KEITHdirectorOption exercise16,0000Form 4
2026-07-01ARCH Venture Fund IX, L.P.tenPercentOwnerOption exercise16,0000Form 4
2026-06-15Whiting NancydirectorAward / grant32,00032,000Form 4
2026-06-15Lim Jonathan EdirectorAward / grant48,00048,000Form 4
2026-06-15Lew JenniferdirectorAward / grant32,00032,000Form 4
2026-06-15Christensen JamesdirectorAward / grant32,00032,000Form 4
2026-01-23Oien JessicaofficerAward / grant220,000220,000Form 4
2026-01-23Doebele RobertofficerAward / grant230,000230,000Form 4
2026-01-23HINKLE DAVID AofficerAward / grant140,000140,000Form 4
2026-01-23Hornby ZacharydirectorAward / grant600,000600,000Form 4
2026-01-23Hassig ChristianofficerAward / grant230,000230,000Form 4
2025-06-23Lew JenniferdirectorAward / grant16,00016,000Form 4
2025-06-23Whiting NancydirectorAward / grant16,00016,000Form 4
2025-06-23Burow KristinadirectorAward / grant16,00016,000Form 4
2025-06-23Lim Jonathan EdirectorAward / grant24,00024,000Form 4
2025-06-23Christensen JamesdirectorAward / grant16,00016,000Form 4
2025-06-23Brennan ChristinedirectorAward / grant16,00016,000Form 4
2025-02-03Doebele RobertofficerAward / grant180,000180,000Form 4
2025-01-22Oien JessicaofficerAward / grant90,00090,000Form 4
2025-01-22Hornby ZacharydirectorAward / grant295,000295,000Form 4
2025-01-22HINKLE DAVID AofficerAward / grant65,00065,000Form 4
2025-01-22Hassig ChristianofficerAward / grant95,00095,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.