Issued 2026-09-16 at $153.47 · now $153.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BNY has typically landed between $138.65 and $171.19 — a range of −9.7% to +11.5% from the issuance price $153.47.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($153.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BNY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $153.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $153.47 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $157.64 (+2.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $150.98–$164.3
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $138.65–$171.19
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-08 | −43.0% | −43.0% | +0.5% |
| 2008-09-10 | −39.8% | −41.2% | +3.8% |
| 2020-02-21 | −39.0% | −39.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +54.4% | −1.2% | +59.0% |
| 2009-03-09 | +51.5% | +0.0% | +60.9% |
| 2009-03-05 | +47.6% | −8.3% | +47.6% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$109.1B
market cap
$8.57
EPS (TTM)
18.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-15
next earnings
Revenue$40.4B
'20'25
Net income$5.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$5.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr12.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.76
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$433.47
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$140.39
- Analyst target · range $147.00–$180.00$172.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$153.47
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
+0.7%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.1%
n=19
Apr
53%
+1.0%
n=19
May
68%
+0.6%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.5%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.7%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.7%
n=19
Sep
37%
−1.6%
n=19
Oct
72%
+3.6%
n=18
Nov
72%
+4.0%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.7%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Minaya Jose | director | Sale | 2,590 @ $162.45 | $421K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 181,274 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Minaya Jose | director | Sale | 930 @ $163.17 | $152K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,344 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | McDonogh Dermot | officer | Sale | 10,303 @ $155.76 | $1.6M | −58.9% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | McDonogh Dermot | officer | Sale | 9,000 @ $153.78 | $1.4M | −28.3% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | McDonogh Dermot | officer | Sale | 7,200 @ $156.68 | $1.1M | −100.0% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | McDonogh Dermot | officer | Sale | 5,297 @ $154.90 | $820K | −23.2% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,503 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2022-12-21 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,126 @ $10.07 | $21K | ownership Δ n/a | +7.7% | −14.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 723 days after the trade |
| 2022-12-21 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,345 @ $10.06 | $14K | ownership Δ n/a | +7.7% | −14.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 723 days after the trade |
| 2022-12-21 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100 @ $10.07 | $1K | ownership Δ n/a | +7.7% | −14.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 723 days after the trade |
| 2022-12-16 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,671 @ $10.28 | $38K | −100.0% of holding | +9.5% | −12.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 728 days after the trade |
| 2022-12-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25 @ $10.30 | $257 | ownership Δ n/a | +10.5% | −10.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 730 days after the trade |
| 2022-12-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25 | — | −100.0% of holding | +10.5% | −10.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 730 days after the trade |
| 2022-12-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25 | — | −100.0% of holding | +10.5% | −10.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 730 days after the trade |
| 2022-12-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25 | — | −100.0% of holding | +10.5% | −10.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 730 days after the trade |
| 2022-12-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25 | — | −100.0% of holding | +10.5% | −10.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 730 days after the trade |
| 2022-12-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25 | — | −100.0% of holding | +10.5% | −10.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 730 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-28 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 191 @ $10.25 | $2K | −100.0% of holding | +4.1% | −15.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 746 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-28 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +4.1% | −15.2% | 25 | Form 4 · filed 746 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-28 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 166 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +4.1% | −15.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 746 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-28 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 166 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +4.1% | −15.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 746 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-28 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +4.1% | −15.2% | 25 | Form 4 · filed 746 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-28 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 166 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +4.1% | −15.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 746 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-28 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +4.1% | −15.2% | 25 | Form 4 · filed 746 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-28 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 166 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +4.1% | −15.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 746 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-28 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +4.1% | −15.2% | 25 | Form 4 · filed 746 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-28 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +4.1% | −15.2% | 25 | Form 4 · filed 746 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-28 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 166 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +4.1% | −15.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 746 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 548 @ $9.45 | $5K | −76.8% of holding | +2.0% | −11.1% | 166 | Form 4 · filed 760 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 166 | — | −100.0% of holding | +2.0% | −11.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 760 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 714 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +2.0% | −11.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 760 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 166 | — | −100.0% of holding | +2.0% | −11.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 760 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 714 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +2.0% | −11.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 760 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 166 | — | −100.0% of holding | +2.0% | −11.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 760 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 714 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +2.0% | −11.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 760 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 166 | — | −100.0% of holding | +2.0% | −11.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 760 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 714 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +2.0% | −11.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 760 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 166 | — | −100.0% of holding | +2.0% | −11.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 760 days after the trade |
| 2022-11-14 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 714 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +2.0% | −11.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 760 days after the trade |
| 2022-10-20 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 714 @ $9.57 | $7K | ownership Δ n/a | +8.7% | +2.2% | 714 | Form 4 · filed 785 days after the trade |
| 2022-10-20 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 714 | — | −100.0% of holding | +8.7% | +2.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 785 days after the trade |
| 2022-10-20 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 714 | — | −100.0% of holding | +8.7% | +2.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 785 days after the trade |
| 2022-10-20 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 714 | — | −100.0% of holding | +8.7% | +2.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 785 days after the trade |
| 2022-10-20 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 714 | — | −100.0% of holding | +8.7% | +2.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 785 days after the trade |
| 2022-10-20 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 714 | — | −100.0% of holding | +8.7% | +2.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 785 days after the trade |
| 2021-10-01 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100 @ $15.39 | $2K | +29.9% of holding | +8.2% | −10.4% | 435 | Form 4 · filed 1169 days after the trade |
| 2021-10-01 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100 @ $15.39 | $2K | ownership Δ n/a | +8.2% | −10.4% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 1169 days after the trade |
| 2021-10-01 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100 @ $15.39 | $2K | +100.0% of holding | +8.2% | −10.4% | 200 | Form 4 · filed 1169 days after the trade |
| 2021-10-01 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100 @ $15.39 | $2K | +42.6% of holding | +8.2% | −10.4% | 335 | Form 4 · filed 1169 days after the trade |
| 2021-10-01 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100 @ $15.39 | $2K | +23.0% of holding | +8.2% | −10.4% | 535 | Form 4 · filed 1169 days after the trade |
| 2021-10-01 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100 @ $15.39 | $2K | −20.0% of holding | +8.2% | −10.4% | 400 | Form 4 · filed 1169 days after the trade |
| 2021-10-01 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100 @ $15.39 | $2K | −25.0% of holding | +8.2% | −10.4% | 300 | Form 4 · filed 1169 days after the trade |
| 2021-10-01 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100 @ $15.39 | $2K | −33.3% of holding | +8.2% | −10.4% | 200 | Form 4 · filed 1169 days after the trade |
| 2021-10-01 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100 @ $15.39 | $2K | −50.0% of holding | +8.2% | −10.4% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 1169 days after the trade |
| 2021-10-01 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100 @ $15.39 | $2K | −100.0% of holding | +8.2% | −10.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1169 days after the trade |
| 2021-10-01 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 35 @ $15.39 | $539 | −6.5% of holding | +8.2% | −10.4% | 500 | Form 4 · filed 1169 days after the trade |
| 2021-10-01 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 35 @ $15.39 | $539 | +17.5% of holding | +8.2% | −10.4% | 235 | Form 4 · filed 1169 days after the trade |
| 2012-02-24 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 800 @ $16.25 | $13K | ownership Δ n/a | +9.6% | +1.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4676 days after the trade |
| 2012-02-24 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100 @ $16.25 | $2K | ownership Δ n/a | +9.6% | +1.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4676 days after the trade |
| 2012-02-24 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100 @ $16.22 | $2K | ownership Δ n/a | +9.6% | +1.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4676 days after the trade |
| 2012-02-23 | BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 600 @ $16.09 | $10K | −100.0% of holding | +6.1% | −0.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4677 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
11 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | McCarthy J Kevin | officer | Gift | 249 | 49,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | McDonogh Dermot | officer | Gift | 31,800 | 248,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | McDonogh Dermot | officer | Gift | 31,800 | 31,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Vince Robin A. | director | Other acquisition | 24,833 | 24,833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Vince Robin A. | director | Other acquisition | 24,833 | 625,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Echevarria Joseph | director | Award / grant | 616 | 66,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Goldstein Jeffrey A | director | Award / grant | 282 | 42,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | O'CONNOR SANDRA | director | Award / grant | 188 | 7,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Robinson Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 73 | 5,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | HUBBARD ROBERT GLENN | director | Other acquisition | 889 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | HUBBARD ROBERT GLENN | director | Other acquisition | 889 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.